Crop estimate.

[blackpowder]

Seducer article calls for record wheat crop. Thoughts??
Just because we're at half yield doesn't mean Saskatchewan is.
Or is Burnett wrong.

[jazz]

That will all change inside of a month. The big crop is long gone. Averagish in many areas now.

I for one am shocked how much moisture this crop pulled out of the ground in the past 2 weeks. No reserve in the top root zone.

[Robertbarlage]

If we don't get rain in next 2 weeks the swath will look like 60 but coming in combine will be red pepper around 20 bus/acre

[bucket]

30bpa might have made sense with the subsoil moisture in the spring and timely rains every week. Guys got very optimistic after the spring rains, average is not in the cards in the southern half of Saskatchewan.

Missed the last two weeks of any substantial moisture and the temperature is nuts.

The weird part is this heat isn't throwing up thunderstorms. A month ago they're popping up with 20 degree weather.

[biglentil]

Early canola is finished flowering, top pods aborted, like literally split open. Might make 35-40 Lots of later canola is in big trouble like 15-25 bpa is my guess. Same goes for the later cereals big trouble. Lentils are hit or miss. Getting the crop in early was essential this year and even then it's no bin buster. With 35bpa canola and 45bpa cereals being break even might be some long faces come harvest time.

[blackpowder]

Prairies in for a bin buster the article said. Just making sure I wasn't the one on glue.

[LEP]

Prairies in for a bin buster the article said. Just making sure I wasn't the one on glue.

Yup. Like Robertbarlage says, at harvest most will be saying there was straw for 60 but ...

[blackpowder]

Funny how some can make a life's career out of hot air.

[furrowtickler]

Down 30% from that report , easily

[bucket]

Down 30% from that report , easily

Weather stays like this for another week and it will be down 60%. The problem is after 5 leaf yield can't go up. It can only maintain its potential with perfect weather.

We haven't had perfect weather for the last month , add in grasshoppers.

Growing a beautiful leafy crop is great, but at the end of the day it's the head that matters. And those heads are not getting bigger. Good chance many won't fill to 30% of its potential.

This is the reality check many can't fathom, and I have no sympathy for people signing contracts early thinking this will be a bin buster. Didn't the last time when farm groups were crying the blues because directors got caught short.

We started out with a subsoil moisture deficit in feet not inches and guys thought a 3inch rain was going to solve the problem??????

Now we have a root system barely past where that rain soaked into and nothing below to use .

How did guys think this was going to turn out.

[blackpowder]

The normal brown areas will be on average, brown. Same with the black.
I didn't think there was enough good to make an average crop if my usual black area is this year, brown.
Pre selling safe enough if you insure the sale. Otherwise you're speculating.

[furrowtickler]

Weather stays like this for another week and it will be down 60%. The problem is after 5 leaf yield can't go up. It can only maintain its potential with perfect weather.

We haven't had perfect weather for the last month , add in grasshoppers.

Growing a beautiful leafy crop is great, but at the end of the day it's the head that matters. And those heads are not getting bigger. Good chance many won't fill to 30% of its potential.

This is the reality check many can't fathom, and I have no sympathy for people signing contracts early thinking this will be a bin buster. Didn't the last time when farm groups were crying the blues because directors got caught short.

We started out with a subsoil moisture deficit in feet not inches and guys thought a 3inch rain was going to solve the problem??????

Now we have a root system barely past where that rain soaked into and nothing below to use .

How did guys think this was going to turn out.

I agree , no doubt
we are in a very small extremely lucky area, and still hitting a wall now

[BTO780]

It doesn’t matter what we all say on here or anywhere, the crooks and thieves will have the final say …. they always have and always will.

Bumper my azz!!!!

[furrowtickler]

They have NDVI tech and all infored tech
they know this crop is deteriorating daily . Crop prices slowly reflecting now

[fcr]

Local terminal needed 10000 t cwrs for a train first week of august.8.40 bu.,filled it in one day. Next train 6.80 bu.Sounds like still lots of old crop that will be carried over to a much,much lower price.Crush plant bought enough to cover them till october as they believe canola harvest will be late.