Canola production estimate

[furrowtickler]

What was the last estimate, 22 mmt?
will be 18 or less I think

[LEP]

Estimates are definitely on the high side. We had 13 inches of moisture up to July 3 and nothing since.

I think we are looking at 80 % of average.

[WiltonRanch]

She’s a doozy. For all the timely rains I’ve had some fields are outright terrible lucky to make 20bu. Other fields look okay. Still lots of aborted flowers from heat.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

This is some of the nicest canola around, from the road it looks decent. Than upon closer inspection at least 50% of pods aborted.

That accurately describes most of the lush looking Fields I have seen. I doubt that satellite imagery can differentiate that from a fully podded field.
Some of the fields that just look terrible from the road don't have any less viable pods on them.

My estimates of our own canola is dropping daily.

[WiltonRanch]

Talking with my input guy. He’s thinking lots of canola crops lucky to make 20. Usually this country if you do a job should do 40-50 but between drought at wrong time and hail it’s probably 50% of normal. He’s looking around beyond and seeing on better ground a shit show. There’s pockets that look okay but more poor stands. This is hwy16 parkland region which grows big bushels and in trouble. These dickheads short the market I hope end up wearing a bloody barrel. Cereals especially wheat are holding on well. Seen some decent oat fields as well. If wheat fills decent which it will now with this rain here will be good yields. Canola on the other hand is forked and average in best places, all the way into the US.

[LEP]

Durum here was seeded last. Also likely 80% at best.

Lentils are half between 20 and 25, with the rest fooked.

[the big wheel]

crop from the road is not the crop you walk into, canola is relatively tall so very deceiving as to the potential you can walk easily through it which is the first sign it isnt good and then all the aborted pods and what is there is small shrunken. easily less than half of what it looks like. And with 12 dollar canola what a mega farm problem coming up but who cares the Chinese just purchased another 2 huge tracks of land. Is this not becoming a security issue?

[jamesb]

Here in SE Sask its for sure going to be a mixed bag, for different reasons, excessive rain after seeding flooded out lots of low spots. We see flowering now in those low spots that mostly drowned out but are now dry. We put fungicides on some of the canola. Sclerotinia is showing up on some fields, I expect it will be ugly in some places. Because we started with a moisture surplus, heat stress hasn't been as bad but nothing likes the intense heat. One good thing with the straighting canola is being able to let it ripen standing as there is such a vast difference in stages in the fields. We planted LL 345, 350, 356 and a little PioneerLL. Its gonna be interesting to see the differences as some look better than others. Its been a strange year from dry to very wet to dry again.

[furrowtickler]

Hopefully canola gains back some after the pummelling yesterday

[furrowtickler]

Will be way more than 2 bus drop , more like 6-8

[WiltonRanch]

These crop estimates regarding canola are complete speculation until it is in the bin. Even with ground truthing it’s still a wild guess. Corn, beans, wheat yield estimates are far simpler and quicker to do. Canola you need to dedicate a considerable amount of time to each field and then margin of error varies considerably even this late in the game. I’ve had crop insurance out to asses fields and what their seed count vs my estimate and what I ended up getting were completely different numbers. Wheat is bloody easy compared. I went south on July 25 and came back August 5. Couldn’t believe how much crops went backwards throughout the east side of Alberta.

[goalieguy847]

Had bunge out last yr assessing our 3017 nexera canola. Told me 30 to 35 bushels after counting pods etc etc.
yielded 54.

Even those in the know...
Dont know.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Seed size makes such a drastic difference to the yield. Take the extreme, and double the diameter of a seed and the yield goes up by a factor of 8.

[westernvicki]

Pods aborted. Seed size smaller.
Heat blast on flowers fewer pods.

Must be the same forecasters who called for the bumper crop in July.

[WiltonRanch]

Seed size is everything. Making any sort of estimate before seeds are hardened a bit a crap shoot. Wheat if you peg in an average seed weight you’re within an acceptable range. What I’m seeing in wheat right now I can plan accordingly. Canola you just don’t know.