Canola production estimate

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Even with a smaller crop its a billion dollar hit to farmers on canola alone.

Todays market action reduced the value of the canola crop by ~$1 billion

Looks like Canadian consumers bought 40,000 new EV's last year. If average price is $50,000 that works out to $1 billion worth of EV sales total in the entire country.

Guess which industry has more voters?

[wheatking16]

Give the Canola market a few days to digest the news regarding China.

[shtferbrains]

The only EV's this will effect at this time are the Tesla's coming out of his Shanghai plant.
Musk has no friends on the left since he bought twitter and scrubbed some of the woke logarithms.
Chuck could probably better explain why the left hate him only slightly less than Trump.
Weird relationship considering he sells 65% of the EV's and contracts about all the NASA traffic.

[wheatking16]

Often, the market overreacts to the news with two to three days of increased volatility before settling down.

I find Day 1 often brings an overreaction to the news.

Day 2 is a correction in the opposite direction.

On Day 3, the market decides which way the price will go. (Most often in the direction of the trend)

Several of my mentors avoid trading for two to three days following a news event like this.

Except for short-term scalp trades.

In my opinion, the best timeframes for a farmer to view the market are a swing trade (days to weeks) or a position trade (weeks to months).

The daily wiggles and squiggles can raise emotions and shake one of their positions.

In other words, today is not the day to panic.

Maybe tomorrow, maybe next week, maybe next month,

But not today.

[furrowtickler]

Very true and well said wheatking

the huge issue are this that have to sell some at or after harvest
they are going to take a bath on this debacle

[wheatking16]

Very true and well said wheatking

the huge issue are this that have to sell some at or after harvest
they are going to take a bath on this debacle

For sure.

This is an example of why using futures is essential.

[furrowtickler]

What the cost to protect against crop production loss this year ?
Blackpowder and you seem to have the best handle on this .
Tom was excellent in that area as well , rest his soul .

[wheatking16]

What the cost to protect against crop production loss this year ?
Blackpowder and you seem to have the best handle on this .
Tom was excellent in that area as well , rest his soul .

If you are referring to me, I don't understand the question.

[blueversi]

Seeing quite a bit of this in my fields. It’s going to be disappointing I know that much.

[Tucker]

I bought a Cat D6R dozer last December. Just because I kinda always wanted one and I could use the depreciation. This year swathing canola? The cheque book is snapping closed. I don't need anything else. Good ****ing luck if you are an ag salesman.

[SASKFARMER]

Yes I had a list of a few things also. No ripper and grader for this guy. Quiet winter it will be.

[biglentil]

You smell that? Breathe in deeply... that's the smell of the hot air coming out of inflated rents and land prices.

But remember the price of the land may change but it's value never does, its the same ole dirt with same ole calorie generating capacity.

[blackpowder]

Farmers are the only businessmen I've met who'll disclose their cash position in conversation in 30 seconds or less.

[WiltonRanch]

Thinking reduction in Chinese demand will be offset some with poor crop and new crush come on stream. Still is going to hurt but not bad as last time. I hope!

knew it was an eventuality canola sales would be a political football once again. Buggers filter and resell “gutter” oil.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thinking reduction in Chinese demand will be offset some with poor crop and new crush come on stream. Still is going to hurt but not bad as last time. I hope!

knew it was an eventuality canola sales would be a political football once again. Buggers filter and resell “gutter” oil.

The gutter oil issue is minor compared to all of the new palm oil they are selling as used cooking oil undercutting local feedstock in the North American and European biodiesel markets.

Investigations are ongoing. Perhaps if regulators crack down on this practice, the additional demand for canola oil will more than offset the loss of demand from the export market.