Marketing advisors

[LEP]

In a year like this, especially with the massive short position held by funds, I expect it to take until almost Christmas for prices to reflect the reality of the level of production.

Typically I sell some lentils and canola earlier in the year for harvest delivery. Then hold out for the market to reflect reality before selling anymore product.

Just one person's opinion.

[jamesb]

I have used them all from low cost to high cost. For me the best value is some of the lower cost subscriptions. Grain Shark is great text service. Larry's newsletter provides information that takes him a lot of time to glean from various sources. They really aren't advisors, rather being information sources. We use a broker for hedging and they provide information. We are always looking over the fence for the next outfit to come along. I don't believe anyone outfit has the answer. Also currently following Ryan Denis, he has an interesting perspective, will see how that product develops

[SASKFARMER]

Larry and Grain shark!

[wrongway]

I tried cargills market sense for a couple of years, young guy with gauges in his ears and tattoos, wasn't in ag industry till hired by cargill. 10k a year and really only promoting in house programs that had fees to use. gave them all my financials and asked for some benchmarking in return...never got it. so dropped them then had a dozen calls asking why and promises to do better. their recommendations' where always based on percentage of crop...but who really know how much you're going to produce till its in the bin.
when grain prices rose for those 4-5 years they were always behind the 8_ball, then i dropped them . not sure how they performed this year...probably better.

lots and lots of good cheap information out there, just have to act on it.

[shtferbrains]

Like everything else it's all about the one guy you deal with?

If you get a guy you are comfortable with it doesn't matter what company they work for?

Might be a one man outfit.

[blackpowder]

After the past few years many got burnt very bad foreword selling with no crop .
we all get it but in areas where production has been very limited and unpredictable, foreword selling can cost the farm way way more than it can benefit.
good example this morning, a few degrees colder and this crop was screwed .
47 frost free days .
without an act of god contract , it can be a suicidal mission .

If you're getting offered $12 wheat in May it's a no brainer when there's options to cya.
Not preaching just always learning.

[Old Cowzilla]

Don't know if it is the weather as much as the black swan evens that happen these days that make grain marketing such a task. Lots of world wide crap happens every week it seems. One thing for sure you have to pre sell something because hauling off the combine uncontracted doesn't happen here because of lack of elevator space.

[blackpowder]

Reminds me of being told to "just build more bins" back in the day.
In 12 years we have seen the only legal buyer disappear. Globalisation fall apart. Trade disputes increase. China becoming powerful. Russia belligerent. More grain trading away from open outcry exchanges. Volume and velocity of money skyrocket.
Couple all that with a long up ride in prices. Our learning curve is dragging. As well, public policy and perception has gone off the rails regarding agriculture. And we're in a low cycle of who knows what length.
Remember how many neighbors disappeared in the last two?
The answer my friends is blowin in the wind.
And we ain't seen nothing yet.

[dave4441]

I have to give a plug to my friend Trent Klarenbach here (Wheatking).

When he first started analyzing small acreage crops like canaryseed and lentils I was skeptical it would work. Not because of his process but because of the liquidity or volume of trade in these small crops. But my fundamental analysis and his statistical analysis is very very similar and he has often been able to see things in the charts that i can feel in the cash market. I have been doing this for 23 years and often am wrong about price direction in the short term but fairly confident in the longer term.

A lot of analysis on the fundamental side comes from relationships by the analyst and someone like myself. But Trent's analysis simply looks at the fluctuation of price and doesn't let outside factors influence it.

The other thing I think is important to recognize the long term highs of the market and what is the profit per acre. Selling into those long term highs is critical in marketing and i see alot of people struggle once markets start dropping. Anything that can give you confidence helps.

[justme18]

Curious what advisors others are working with that they like and why you like them. I don’t care about options much at this point so not wanting some knob who thinks he had all the answers on that end. I shoulda got one years ago but finally gonna add one this fall. I was looking at Cargill market sense but they hired the tard that f’d up fbns marketing program. I’d prefer to work with one that doesn’t work for a grain company cause thats a no brainer in my head.

Perhaps I could be of some assistance to you!