I would like to share a few thoughts on this challenging topic.
Grain price moves over the past 5 years have had the ability to make anyone and likely everyone look like an idiot at times. Even the largest players (in market advisory services) have either ceased operations, look like they're going to or likely would be if not for hidden agendas.
I would suggest the first thing to be sure of is if you are okay with paying good money for advice that will be wrong? It can still add a lot of value and take a lot of stress off your plate but we are hard wired to expect performance. As you know with marketing, if the price goes up, they would have advised selling too much prior to. If it goes down, they didn't recommend enough sales first. Managed expectations are important for it to be worth pursuing.
In the big picture, the problem is everyone wants to apply logic (rightfully so), expecting if they could just get the fine details right, they would know what prices would do and recommend sales accordingly. The reality is, there are far more factors at play that often trump meaningful fundamentals, especially short term.
The unfortunate truth is that everyone in the world wants cheap food - other than farmers (and those that service them). This is especially true for governments and central banks that are responsible for managing inflation and economic health. Sadly, it is the latter group that sets policy, collects data and distributes the results. They have the ability to influence the price, and not in a good way, for the greater good of a country. (The exception is when the supply gets dangerously low).
To make matters worse, large funds have recognized the bias and embraced it, being far more aggressive with their selling than would be expected. 'Don't fight the Fed' has been a very profitable notion in the financial markets for decades.
On the flip side, the 18 month period around 2021 demonstrated how painful being blindly pessimistic can be. When prices stay too low for too long, supply suffers and there is no cushion for unexpected droughts or wars.
In my opinion, one should market as if the deck is stacked against them but with the upmost respect for price potential when supplies are driven too low. 'It doesn't matter until it matters' is a thing.
With that all in mind, I would recommend staying away from any market advisor that isn't humble enough (or realistic enough) to recognize how much influence outside forces have on prices.
I'm afraid this doesn't help answering 'who' but food for thought on 'who not' or even 'should I'.
My 2 cents worth (about 1/2 cent now with inflation)
Mitch Miller
Grain price moves over the past 5 years have had the ability to make anyone and likely everyone look like an idiot at times. Even the largest players (in market advisory services) have either ceased operations, look like they're going to or likely would be if not for hidden agendas.
I would suggest the first thing to be sure of is if you are okay with paying good money for advice that will be wrong? It can still add a lot of value and take a lot of stress off your plate but we are hard wired to expect performance. As you know with marketing, if the price goes up, they would have advised selling too much prior to. If it goes down, they didn't recommend enough sales first. Managed expectations are important for it to be worth pursuing.
In the big picture, the problem is everyone wants to apply logic (rightfully so), expecting if they could just get the fine details right, they would know what prices would do and recommend sales accordingly. The reality is, there are far more factors at play that often trump meaningful fundamentals, especially short term.
The unfortunate truth is that everyone in the world wants cheap food - other than farmers (and those that service them). This is especially true for governments and central banks that are responsible for managing inflation and economic health. Sadly, it is the latter group that sets policy, collects data and distributes the results. They have the ability to influence the price, and not in a good way, for the greater good of a country. (The exception is when the supply gets dangerously low).
To make matters worse, large funds have recognized the bias and embraced it, being far more aggressive with their selling than would be expected. 'Don't fight the Fed' has been a very profitable notion in the financial markets for decades.
On the flip side, the 18 month period around 2021 demonstrated how painful being blindly pessimistic can be. When prices stay too low for too long, supply suffers and there is no cushion for unexpected droughts or wars.
In my opinion, one should market as if the deck is stacked against them but with the upmost respect for price potential when supplies are driven too low. 'It doesn't matter until it matters' is a thing.
With that all in mind, I would recommend staying away from any market advisor that isn't humble enough (or realistic enough) to recognize how much influence outside forces have on prices.
I'm afraid this doesn't help answering 'who' but food for thought on 'who not' or even 'should I'.
My 2 cents worth (about 1/2 cent now with inflation)
Mitch Miller
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