Are We in a Capitulation Phase?

[wheatking16]

GrainStats commented on a tweet of mine this morning, suggesting that Canola is probably in the capitulation phases of the market.



I am not sure if we are already in it or entering it.

Awareness of one’s emotions benefits decision-making in life and grain marketing.

We call this emotional granularity.

I prepared this infographic, which I apply every day.



Also included is a link to a presentation on the subject.

I call it a cheat code.

Let me know your thoughts.

[biglentil]

I would say anger phase. I have a feeling some guys are gonna be having a little talk with their landlords this fall. Especially the guys that were driving up rents offering top dollar to squeeze out the competition.

[bucket]

I don't know what phase we are in but it's a bad funk to be in. People that complain about farmers have never seen their wages go down for showing up for work.

Lower prices and lower yields = big hit to the old income .

Meanwhile railways and their workers are negotiating to take more out of our pockets.

You don't see railways taking a pay cut. Or their workers.

Then add in their pensions like Jagmeet is seeking while the government extracts more of our farms through capital gains for doing really nothing for farmers over the last 40 years.

There is a funk that really needs a bow on it .

[jamesb]

I find this quote very truthful but hard to accept by many.
quote :

[URL=https://x.com/ArlanFF101][/URL]
Arlan Suderman ([url]https://x.com/ArlanFF101[/url])

@ArlanFF101 ([url]https://x.com/ArlanFF101[/url])
·
Aug 9 ([url]https://x.com/ArlanFF101/status/1821987467366691172[/url])


Unfortunately, price is not a respecter of your cost of production. Price's job is to bring supply and demand in balance, and in the current case, it has to get low enough to stop or reverse Brazilian expansion.


Unquote
I think there is gonna be a whole lot of hurt in the next 6 months. Like a lot of other people we cant lock the bins, buying it back on paper maybe an "option", but I recall multiple years of low flat prices. Those that can run with lower overhead cost will be in better shape. Those with high payments are going to need to restructure. We did buy Gars this year so I we will have to see how this works out as well as Ag stability that Im told will trigger for lots.

[agstar77]

Basically ,suck it up. This year will thin the herd. If you are overleveraged , it will not end well.

[blackpowder]

Depends on your area perhaps.
Don't think land costs will go down here. And really if rent goes from $150 down to $100 (which it will not for a while), you're on thin ice cost wise if that makes a difference. Or one bad year.
We know this will be a multi year thing. Had I not had other responsibilities I would have quit last fall. Likely won't see that pile of cash again in my time left.
Looking possible for Agstab to trigger. Eek. Can't see GARS around if this lasts too long.

Think maybe 06? Frosted wheat $2.00. By Jul 07 $4.00. Haven't farmed long if you haven't restructured once or twice.

[SASKFARMER]

It does depend on your area. But yes were all in the mad phase but those who can wait because SA is bone dry and its worse than last year and they are going to **** us on Canola till the cows come home.

[agstar77]

The only thing that will mitigate this for us is very good wheat and soybean crop. If we get it off and if it moves.

[Rareearth]

In the 70’s a major event happened that caught everyone by surprise.

Is this history repeating it self?

[agstar77]

The black swan can be good or bad.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

A Black swan that must be in the back of everyone's mind is how the market will respond when one of the nuclear power plants in the Black Sea region finally gets successfully blown up.
Look up what the wheat markets did when Chernobyl happened.
Edit. Maybe not technically a Black swan since it is not completely unpredictable.

[agstar77]

Sure looks like a bottoming out in the wheat market. Looking for higher lows and higher highs.

[WiltonRanch]

Well we will be forced to hold for the foreseeable future whether we want to or not. Goings on in Russia SovEcon predicts 10 million tonne cut in exports over last year. Besides harvest conditions are crap further east so quality worse.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Despite all of the bearish news, world wheat stocks to use ratios are lower now than they were when wheat was at record highs. Has declined every year since.

[LWeber]

Despite all of the bearish news, world wheat stocks to use ratios are lower now than they were when wheat was at record highs. Has declined every year since.

I'll give you a HUH... cause you're posting like him...