Inputs , machinery

[westernvicki]

This year we planted with income earned in previous years, the following year(s) will be the deal breaker. We have the highest rail freight rates ever! Will inputs come down? Something has to give!

[Hamloc]

The new combine platforms are all well over $1 million dollars. Many BTO’s trading in 6 buying 4 or similar ratios. Who will buy the influx of trades? Maybe there will be some moderation in used combines for the smaller operators.

On a side note I was talking to my canola seed salesman he said Basf was planning to raise Invigor seed prices 3-4%, Dekalb playing catch up apparently plans to raise theirs by a higher percentage! Are these companies ****ing crazy?!?!

[biglentil]

Someone asked what phase we are in, we are in the blow off phase.

[GALAXIE500]

When I see 5 one year old combines , with headers going over farmland that is yeilding well below 15 bpa ( heard it was actually 10 or less) I wonder how in the world you make payments ( lease or owning outright) on machines like that. Those are expensive acres.

[helmsdale]

I have an inside on some actual industry metrics. If my actual cost of machinery per acre is well below the average or so I'm told, then the average is in for an education.

Um, yup!

Newest piece of equipment here is an houred out 4730 sprayer... most things are paid for, but parts are killing me. Local RME has been as cooperative as they can be trying to bill on farm fixes as red seal inspections and cutting large ticket items to cost, but my God, 50K on combine repairs is retarded! Dad commented the other day that he used to shit himself when he had a 3K bill on his old 750 massey for the year!

Chemical bill: insane
Fertilizer bill: stupid!
parts: record setting
Rent? "We could get 5% at the bank guaranteed!" Yea, ok, sell then!
my bank acct: feels like a panhandler begging for pocket change!

[countryguy]

You will own nothing and be happy

[bucket]

Million dollar sprayers, drills , tractors and combines with the current grain prices are going to have an interesting effect going forward.

I think we will see some backroom deals being done at FCC , that will come to light in a few years as to how those farmers stayed in business.

While FCC takes the hatchet to any farmer that questions the current values as being considered someone who doesn't want to stay in the farming game.

I believe FCC is working as a real estate agent for those that want to get larger, since I hear smaller guys being told " to sell a few quarters , they will sell quickly " instead of being given the tools to weather a short term downturn.

[helmsdale]

Million dollar sprayers, drills , tractors and combines with the current grain prices are going to have an interesting effect going forward.

I think we will see some backroom deals being done at FCC , that will come to light in a few years as to how those farmers stayed in business.

While FCC takes the hatchet to any farmer that questions the current values as being considered someone who doesn't want to stay in the farming game.

I believe FCC is working as a real estate agent for those that want to get larger, since I hear smaller guys being told " to sell a few quarters , they will sell quickly " instead of being given the tools to weather a short term downturn.

The 80s are calling...

[goalieguy847]

Hey that qttr by redwater on clh
Was a pretty good purchase by whomever got it...

( me) LOL

I was actually pretty happy with that price at 4 K an acre. It's good dirt and own the qrtr on the Southside ( thus making a 1/2 section). plus there is some additional oil patch/ lease revenue which will cover roughly 1/3 of the yearly payment... which is a far cry better than what these idiot development companies are wanting to rent their land back for ( 3%) of purchase price.



Some land a half mile east closer to town sold for 5600 a yr ago...with some stuff right in town at 10 k / ac a few months ago but a different animal.

I figured this qrtr would be much higher up around 7 to 750 k.

Pleasantly surprised actually....

I've always wondered how people make a go of it on 1 million qrtrs growing less crop than we do... down southern alberta. Non irrigated. Square that circle for me ?


I firmly believe we are in a real crappy period here where it is going to be incredibleeeee rent rates due to farmers needing these acres to keep payment cost/ ac similar. If there is one thing a farmer won't do ( especially male farmers) is admit defeat and trade in their steel for cheaper steal.

Equipment won't come down. Used stuff sure..but new stuff won't...it'll just stay the same or the lease programs will get better to entice growers into it. Parts aren't coming down. And fertilizer sure won't for some time... too much going on in the rest of the world for our local lack of demand to drop prices.



Here in alberta we always know what the " future" looks like when you check out the TOY market.

NEW rvs / campers are down 30 to 40% from their highs 2 yrs ago. There are very few spots left at trailer storage places meaning people dont want to take a bath on a sale...and local harley dealerships arent even taking TRADES let alone consigning. That shows there isn't any expendable income left. People are hurting.


Canola bags up 50 to 150/ bag with the exception of ;

Brett young
Croplan ( winfield united)
and some Proven varieties.


This next yr, barring some huge crop production issue in another part of the world, is really going to test the mettle of many a grower.

The smart ones have a rainy day fund and have their cost per acre in line with their avg production. t

The silly ones with equipment/ infrastructure costs up in that 150- 200$/ ac range?

Well..

Not sure what happens next.

Meanwhile.. my 4500 hr JD 4830 sprayer is looking mighty finnneeeeeeeee for next yr. Even with the hydraulic leaks and the door that seems to randomly lock me in...

[TASFarms]

Land prices on CLH the last couple of days showing much needed restraint. Most interesting was $620K for a full quarter section along hwy 28 west of Redwater with SLR. Watched nice quarters east of here in the Viking, Two Hills, Irma area making around the $1M range for most of the last two years until now. Paging FCC.

Heard guys in that area have to sell land to cover bills from this crop.

[TASFarms]

Used mfa tractors around 5000 hours are priced 80% of current new price. Going to be a tough sell

[fjlip]

So iron will NOT come down but just will not sell?

Auction deals $ next spring?