Lentil Prices

[TOM4CWB]

Mustardman, CP,

Take a look at this:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/DryBeans/PDFs/DPLOutlook.pdf

Now, isn't it absolutely clear, that the US farm bill has a massive effect on both lentil production and prices?

With yellow peas at 6.25/bu, and surging demand for these peas especially... why are you concentrating so much on lentils?

Lets face it, who is the major consumer of the global lentils... M o s l e m s.

Do these folks like either Canada, Au, or the US? NO. Do they care if we lentil growers are profitable? NO.

KNOW YOUR MARKET and ENDUSER.

9/11 2001 changed the world... as did the shifting calendar, further compicated by the US farm bill.

I find a good market arbitage on peas between the US, Canada, and Australia on price arbitage. Arbitage on Lentils are not much different. Look at the tables in this article.

Please... as growers we must be responsible for what we grow... don't expect to jam 2X the market for lentils... to a consumer who you just might find telling you... comming from the local mosque on "sunday morning"...we should be paying them to eat our lentils! Chinese consumers are not a lot different they have very low disposable incomes!... FACT: The folks eating these lentils in 3rd world countries are not rich! What do you think their average daily income is... $5/day?

[TOM4CWB]

Mustardman,

In as loving a way as possible... many Muslims don't like us very much, and these folks buy most of our lentils.

"On Feb. 13, the CBC published and aired the results of an Environics poll, which on their website was billed as "Glad to be Canadian, Muslims say."
Apparently "more than 80% of Canada's roughly 700,000 Muslims are broadly satisfied with their lives here."

...That's a nice and cuddly kind of story, but hardly surprising....
Poor and middle-class Afghans -- the vast majority -- have no running water, no heat, no electricity and most are totally illiterate to boot.

They are handsome hospitable people -- and extremely resourceful -- but Canada's homeless shelters would look like luxury to your average Afghan refugee...

...Waaaay down in the online CBC story about this poll is the news that when "asked about the arrests last summer of the 18 Muslim men and boys who were allegedly plotting terrorist attacks in southern Ontario, 73% of Muslim respondents said these attacks were not at all justified." That portion of the poll ended there. No more details. Why? The Environics website made no mention about this portion of the poll either."

Because... the rest of the story is...

"...On CBC's The National television program on the same day, this part of the poll was fleshed-out and the results are alarming.
Fully 12% of Muslim Canadians polled by Environics said the alleged terrorist plot -- that included kidnapping and beheading the prime minister and blowing up Parliament and the CBC -- was justified."

Get my point, who consumes our lentil?

For the full article:

http://calsun.canoe.ca/News/Columnists/Corbella_Licia/2007/02/18/3642930-sun.html

[charliep]

Islamic countries are not the only ones that consume lentils. Using Stat publishing data, North African and Arabic countries are forecast to make up about 28 % of this years Canadian lentil exports. Lots are exported to central/south america as well as Europe and India. If you broke down by class, the percentages for each type by region would change.

[charliep]

Perhaps the real challenge for lentils is to grow the market in general. It is very similar to durum in that way - set consumption in some countries and an element of weather tossed in. Both markets need to grow their customer base.

[cottonpicken]

Tom to bad you dont know anything about growing lentils.
They are always more profitable than peas.(where they can be grown).

p.s-everyone wacth your speling and gramer frannyspellcheck is on the prowl

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

Turkey is one of the more elastic export markets for our lentil, as is southern Europe. Venezuela and Brazil are developing markets... that just don't work!

THe increase in the value of our CDN $ has really hurt us, and countries like Brazil are still paying a "high" price for lentil comparitively speaking... there is real resistance in S/Cen. American to paying more.

The fact remains... lentil consumers in elastic markets that could take more lentils, are not rich people, and are difficult to get to pay more! US sentiment is not as negative in S/Cen. America... but it is not that positive either. Take one look at what is happening in Venezuela. Are they politically much different than Muslem Countries? I think not! THis too is all a part of the 9/11 attitude!

It should be very simple to see... when we and the US have double the production we need... partly because of farm bill subsidies... while the CDN $ becomes 20% more expensive... we have a REAL problem that requires a drastic realignment in production and price to correct.

Supply and Demand forces, linked with a consumer currency problem... mean things have changed!

Be blind if you like... you can take a horse to water... but you can't make it drink!

I stand by my statement... GROW YELLOW PEAS.

[TOM4CWB]

CP,

(Lentils)"They are always more profitable than peas."

If Canada and the US don't cut our production in half... they won't be again this year.

How many lentil are going to be sent into the growing Asian markets that can afford to consume more?

They will take yellow pea and wheat... NOT Lentil.

[kamichel]

Yellow pea seed is fast disappearing in my area. Has something to due with high price of unpriced nitrogen and now 500 dollar per ton phosphate. Thinking should take a contract for new crop. I just don't see how all these peas can possibly move through the system to export unless local feed can start to purchase much more. Container congestion for pulses will in my eyes be a major problem next year.

[kamichel]

Just talked to the local feed mill. The are not using peas in their ration now because of cheap blood and bone meal and not likely to change next year. If no feed market means they must be exported.
Conjestion!!!!!

[mustardman]

Tom4CWB

I have been growing both peas and lentils for years.
The trouble with green lentils is having 80% market share and having Multiple Sellers.
The Canadian Exporters are competing against Each Other and they keep dropping their selling price to Move volume.
Our so-called competiton- a handful of countries where the remaining 20% lentils are coming from have sold their lentils for $900/tonne.

Our exporters Competing against one another were driving the price down under $450/tonne.

Multiple sellers are Great for the Importer !

[sparki]

mustardman
disagree with your assessment. canada grossly overproduced lentils in 2005 and that surplus is still affecting the markets today
read some of the comments back in January regading the senselessness of a lentil marketing board.

Sparki

[mustardman]

Sparki read study done by Marlene Boerch on this issue she had done for Sask Pulse. I think its available on their website.

Sure we overpoduced lentils in some years but our "compeititors" were getting twice the price as what we were selling for.

[charliep]

mustardman

Just curious as to what your business model would look like? Compulsory or volunteery? Price pooling option only?
Supply controls? All lentils? Would the CWB guarantee to take full delvery of all lentils that are by the end of a crop year?

More interesting to me, how would you integrate the existing supply chain into model? What say would they have?

The are issues in the Canadian lentil market. I not sure a CLB (Canadian Lentil Bureaucracy) is the answer.

[TOM4CWB]

Mustardman,

Did you take the time to read and study:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/DryBeans/PDFs/DPLOutlook.pdf

IF a reasonable person, with a normal fundemental understanding of Ag marketing studied this document... another county, another different group of marketers and relationships...

AND a totally different marketing history than that of western Canada... a history that predates our own by decades... a history predicated on personal relationships, quality, disciplined marketing...

And the last 3 years are the same on both sides of the US Border.

You do a great disservice to those who work so hard to skimp, scrounge, and extract every last cent out of our system to return to W. CDN Pulse growers!

By far the majority have been honest, & dealt with growers with respect & integrety...

Please, what more can we expect?

If a pulse board were to contract supply, the US growers would simply expand production. IT WOULD NOT SOLVE THE PROBLEM... unless the US, CA, and AU growers did it together... and controled production.

[TOM4CWB]

Mustardman,

Here is some of the info, I can't get the tables into this format:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/DryBeans/PDFs/DPLOutlook.pdf

I note; THe US has not been squalking about Canadian marketers blowing apart Their US markets... nor have I heard CDN Marketers say US folks killed their markets. Market Arbitage has been consistant, transparent, and generally efficient. This runs contrary to what Mustardmans diatribe expresses.

Dry Peas and Lentils
Acreage May Decline But Production Could Rise
The market situation for dry peas and lentils is similar to that of dry beans. Despite
relatively attractive prices and revenue possibilities for peas and lentils, many
producers may find potential returns stronger this spring for other crops. As a
result, given average weather conditions and current price relationships, area
planted to both dry edible peas and lentils is expected to decline about one tenth
from a year earlier. Most of this projected decline is expected to be centered in the
upper Midwest, where competition with crops such as spring wheat (including
durum) is likely to be intense. Even with these reductions in planted area, output of
both peas and lentils is expected to increase under the assumption that yields return
to their long-term averages from last year’s weather-reduced levels.
The acreage situation in traditional Western growing areas, which tend to be largely
concentrated on food-grade markets, may be a bit different. In these areas, acreage
changes are expected to be much more subdued. In fact, with food-grade farm
prices now well above both loan rates and year-earlier levels (and continuing to rise), some increase in acreage (particularly for dry peas) is not out of the question in the Palouse. In early February, grower bids for dry peas (both green and yellow)
were running about 50 percent above the lows of a year earlier with the market
continuing to push higher. If pea and lentil prices continue to strengthen relative to other crops, acreage changes could be moderated this spring. The first USDA estimate of 2007 acreage for dry peas and lentils will be released in the Prospective
Plantings report on March 30.
Crop Value Down in 2006/07
Based on preliminary estimates of season average prices, the value of all U.S. dry pea and lentil production (excluding marketing loans) totaled $121 million in 2006/07—down 10 percent from a year earlier. All dry pea (dry peas, Austrian winter peas, wrinkled seed peas, and small chickpeas) crop value rose 4 percent to
$85 million as reduced production was outweighed by higher prices. The value of lentil output dropped 33 percent to $36 million as a smaller crop outweighed a slight gain in the estimated season-average price. With large carryover stocks from the 2005/06 crop, lentil prices only increased 1 percent despite a 37-percent
reduction in production.
Figure 8
U.S. dry peas and lentils: Acres planted,
1990 was 270,000
2006 was 1,400,000
2007 est 1,200,000

July-December Export Volume Down 8 Percent
U.S. export volume (including food aid) of all dry peas and lentils (excluding seed)
fell 8 percent during the first 6 months (July-December) of the 2006/07 crop year to 6.48 million cwt. Although lentil exports dropped 43 percent (despite a sizeable shipment to Cuba in August) and miscellaneous dry peas also fell heavily, dry green
and yellow pea volume continued to surge higher during the first half of the crop year. Green pea volume benefited from a large shipment (31 million pounds) to Cuba in October. Despite high prices, chickpea export volume rose 9 percent as a
larger U.S. crop, strong world demand, and the weaker dollar aided exporters.
Exports of dry yellow peas, which are coming off a record-high last year, have
already exceeded the 2005/06 crop year total thanks to good supplies and strong
food aid demand. With higher prices offsetting strong food aid demand and the weak dollar, overseas movement of U.S. dry peas and lentils is expected to weaken in the coming months.