Lentil Prices

[TOM4CWB]

Mustardman, CP,

Take a look at this:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/DryBeans/PDFs/DPLOutlook.pdf

Now, isn't it absolutely clear, that the US farm bill has a massive effect on both lentil production and prices?

With yellow peas at 6.25/bu, and surging demand for these peas especially... why are you concentrating so much on lentils?

Lets face it, who is the major consumer of the global lentils... M o s l e m s.

Do these folks like either Canada, Au, or the US? NO. Do they care if we lentil growers are profitable? NO.

KNOW YOUR MARKET and ENDUSER.

9/11 2001 changed the world... as did the shifting calendar, further compicated by the US farm bill.

I find a good market arbitage on peas between the US, Canada, and Australia on price arbitage. Arbitage on Lentils are not much different. Look at the tables in this article.

Please... as growers we must be responsible for what we grow... don't expect to jam 2X the market for lentils... to a consumer who you just might find telling you... comming from the local mosque on "sunday morning"...we should be paying them to eat our lentils! Chinese consumers are not a lot different they have very low disposable incomes!... FACT: The folks eating these lentils in 3rd world countries are not rich! What do you think their average daily income is... $5/day?

[TOM4CWB]

Mustardman,

In as loving a way as possible... many Muslims don't like us very much, and these folks buy most of our lentils.

"On Feb. 13, the CBC published and aired the results of an Environics poll, which on their website was billed as "Glad to be Canadian, Muslims say."
Apparently "more than 80% of Canada's roughly 700,000 Muslims are broadly satisfied with their lives here."

...That's a nice and cuddly kind of story, but hardly surprising....
Poor and middle-class Afghans -- the vast majority -- have no running water, no heat, no electricity and most are totally illiterate to boot.

They are handsome hospitable people -- and extremely resourceful -- but Canada's homeless shelters would look like luxury to your average Afghan refugee...

...Waaaay down in the online CBC story about this poll is the news that when "asked about the arrests last summer of the 18 Muslim men and boys who were allegedly plotting terrorist attacks in southern Ontario, 73% of Muslim respondents said these attacks were not at all justified." That portion of the poll ended there. No more details. Why? The Environics website made no mention about this portion of the poll either."

Because... the rest of the story is...

"...On CBC's The National television program on the same day, this part of the poll was fleshed-out and the results are alarming.
Fully 12% of Muslim Canadians polled by Environics said the alleged terrorist plot -- that included kidnapping and beheading the prime minister and blowing up Parliament and the CBC -- was justified."

Get my point, who consumes our lentil?

For the full article:

http://calsun.canoe.ca/News/Columnists/Corbella_Licia/2007/02/18/3642930-sun.html

[charliep]

Islamic countries are not the only ones that consume lentils. Using Stat publishing data, North African and Arabic countries are forecast to make up about 28 % of this years Canadian lentil exports. Lots are exported to central/south america as well as Europe and India. If you broke down by class, the percentages for each type by region would change.

[charliep]

Perhaps the real challenge for lentils is to grow the market in general. It is very similar to durum in that way - set consumption in some countries and an element of weather tossed in. Both markets need to grow their customer base.

[cottonpicken]

Tom to bad you dont know anything about growing lentils.
They are always more profitable than peas.(where they can be grown).

p.s-everyone wacth your speling and gramer frannyspellcheck is on the prowl

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

Turkey is one of the more elastic export markets for our lentil, as is southern Europe. Venezuela and Brazil are developing markets... that just don't work!

THe increase in the value of our CDN $ has really hurt us, and countries like Brazil are still paying a "high" price for lentil comparitively speaking... there is real resistance in S/Cen. American to paying more.

The fact remains... lentil consumers in elastic markets that could take more lentils, are not rich people, and are difficult to get to pay more! US sentiment is not as negative in S/Cen. America... but it is not that positive either. Take one look at what is happening in Venezuela. Are they politically much different than Muslem Countries? I think not! THis too is all a part of the 9/11 attitude!

It should be very simple to see... when we and the US have double the production we need... partly because of farm bill subsidies... while the CDN $ becomes 20% more expensive... we have a REAL problem that requires a drastic realignment in production and price to correct.

Supply and Demand forces, linked with a consumer currency problem... mean things have changed!

Be blind if you like... you can take a horse to water... but you can't make it drink!

I stand by my statement... GROW YELLOW PEAS.

[TOM4CWB]

CP,

(Lentils)"They are always more profitable than peas."

If Canada and the US don't cut our production in half... they won't be again this year.

How many lentil are going to be sent into the growing Asian markets that can afford to consume more?

They will take yellow pea and wheat... NOT Lentil.

[kamichel]

Yellow pea seed is fast disappearing in my area. Has something to due with high price of unpriced nitrogen and now 500 dollar per ton phosphate. Thinking should take a contract for new crop. I just don't see how all these peas can possibly move through the system to export unless local feed can start to purchase much more. Container congestion for pulses will in my eyes be a major problem next year.

[kamichel]

Just talked to the local feed mill. The are not using peas in their ration now because of cheap blood and bone meal and not likely to change next year. If no feed market means they must be exported.
Conjestion!!!!!

[mustardman]

Tom4CWB

I have been growing both peas and lentils for years.
The trouble with green lentils is having 80% market share and having Multiple Sellers.
The Canadian Exporters are competing against Each Other and they keep dropping their selling price to Move volume.
Our so-called competiton- a handful of countries where the remaining 20% lentils are coming from have sold their lentils for $900/tonne.

Our exporters Competing against one another were driving the price down under $450/tonne.

Multiple sellers are Great for the Importer !