Buyers reluctant to come to the plate

[craig]

This week the bears have had there day as other events influence the grain markets. What has disppointed me is the lack of decent pricing opportunities into new crop. It seems that the buyers don't believe we are in a new world grain economy and prepared to continue living hand to mouth assuming prices will come down. I don't have a problem with that but offers in the market at $3.75 for new crop feed wheat just don't cut it. Barley below $3.00 also doesn't cut it. If this is reality we are in for a big wake up call as input prices shoot through the roof.

[kamichel]

Terragrain is not getting their wheat at 4 dollars. Local feed mills here are not offering prices for new crop yet, and only have their feed wheat soursed to mid April 07. At least with the CWB fixed prices for new crop should give some support in the market.

[Digger]

I agree Craig that buyers are reluctant right now (just as we were reluctant sellers over the past 2 years). You have to shop around and imo you need to "draw your line" in the sand regarding price & tonnage levels, be realistic and once that target becomes reality be willing to pull the trigger. It is hard to sell in a rising market (emotion sucks).

New crop bids are out there @ $4.25 new crop NB fd wht and $3.25 - $3.50 fd bly.

[TOM4CWB]

Craig,

This all about risk.

Grower risk is there on the production side.

Livestock growers are just as vulnerable on the input side... (feedgrains bought from us; etc.)

None of us can afford to buy "high" and sell "low"... yet these are the choices avaliable in a normal free market... it IS all about margin and risk!

I don't believe anyone would want it any other way...

Communists believe supply and demand markets can be responsibly forced into outcomes that better serve humanity!

The SOviet Union, CHina under MAO, and North Korea should have taught us... Draconian systems that do not respect private property rights... in combination with human rights... have VERY negative outcomes for our civilisation.

WAr... is not funny...

"War" is simply the result of people not accepting these simple principals... "private property rights... in combination with human rights" balanced with respect hope and love.

I can't honestly identify CWB attributes being pushed by "singledeskers" now... that bring us anywhere BUT to a state of "WAR".

I really hope the average Canadian "Barley grower" will have taken this into consideration... before they cast their ballot!

It is obvious Minister Strahl believes grain growers in the "Designated area" are ballanced enough to respect each other in a humane logical and reasonable manner...

I commend PM Harper and Minister Strahl for having enough confidence in our industry to bring these important issues forward... for our thought and Consideration!

Please... let us not break this trust!

God Bless Canada!

[wd9]

Craig, as you well know old habits are hard to break, why change if you don't have to. Farmers seem to be able to produce to excess every year and the JIT principle works just fine. No use paying more than you have to.

[charliep]

I would suspect that most buyers are taking protection in the market somewhere (likely futures and options versus booking new crop cash contracts).

I suspect that anyone who who uses grain as an input needs to be prepared for a very interesting summer. This group will add volatility this summer. It is one thing to be a speculator. It is quite another to be buying for a flour mill, malt plant, domestic crush, feedlot, etc and not having grain coming up the driveway.

Perhaps an outcome of the new world we are entering into is that all members of the supply chain will have to come together to look at pricing alternatives and contracts that deal with each others needs to manage risk.

Or maybe the world will stay exactly like like it is today. People are obviously happy handing over customer relationships, pricing decisions and delivery access to someone else or some other group.