OCT 22: Pulses are mentioned, and Grain Central has a news article (AUS CROP FORECAST below). This comment on lentils: “Even if you can only strip (harvest) 300kg/ha (268 pounds per acre – 4.46 bpa) , it’s probably worth a crack at $850/t to get your seed back.”, should implant in AUS farmer’s minds what -8C can do during the growing season. Canola production is expected to fall 20.8%, barley by 4.7% and wheat rise 6.4% versus last year.
OCT 21: Changes to Ag Can’s S&Ds were made following the July STOCKS report on October 08. No changes were made to annual crop year canola exports that are on pace for 11.523 MMT vs Ag Can’s 7.5 MMT. At the current pace, 7.5 MMT of exports is attained at the end of March 2025 with 4 more months in the crop year. The current canola crop is closer to 17 MMT than it is to 18.981 MMT; so essentially at this pace, and a real canola crop estimate, we will run out of canola, long before July 31.
I had tried to whack Canada's October estimate released yesterday and in the end, find i get in less trouble with a picture rather than words...so here you go!
Just in case you were bearish canola...
?
OCT 21: Changes to Ag Can’s S&Ds were made following the July STOCKS report on October 08. No changes were made to annual crop year canola exports that are on pace for 11.523 MMT vs Ag Can’s 7.5 MMT. At the current pace, 7.5 MMT of exports is attained at the end of March 2025 with 4 more months in the crop year. The current canola crop is closer to 17 MMT than it is to 18.981 MMT; so essentially at this pace, and a real canola crop estimate, we will run out of canola, long before July 31.
I had tried to whack Canada's October estimate released yesterday and in the end, find i get in less trouble with a picture rather than words...so here you go!
Just in case you were bearish canola...
?
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