Price disconnect in the fertilizer market

[Hamloc]

I was reading a DTN retail fertilizer price update a couple of days ago. It compared commodity prices this year to last across retail outlets in the US. From memory Urea was 13% lower than one year ago and 11-52 was 1% higher than a year ago. In pricing fertilizer here recently Urea is just under $700, I paid $590 last year and 11-52 ranges from $1150-1175, last year I payed $910. The value of the Canadian dollar is lower now but when companies were filling up this summer it wasn’t. Grain prices are lower. Oil and natural gas are lower. Just like a rise in canola seed prices there is no justification for the increase in fertilizer! Any thoughts?

[BTO780]

Wait until the US election is over, there could be lots of surprises coming in all avenues.

[goalieguy847]

Heres my question.

What could possibly make it any lower in the future?
We are putting nh3 down right now fully expecting a sideways market... just a time saving thing really.

I dont pay attention much to stocks and such but have been reading that alot of funds that are " U.S. based company group funds" have been rising and alot of wall street money is expecting a Trump win. Early voting is pretty much showing that hes in a realll good place ( especially in north carolina/ penn/ ohio) .
Hes promised protectionist tarriffs so... if that happens we could see a rise in the U.S. dollar and better wheat basis but crappier everything else prices ( purchasing).

Fertilizer is such a stupid scam. Priced out of new orleans. I rent land from the god damn plant that makes it. Could drive the drill across the road and fill at nutrien.

However,
The world market can help our commodity prices too so its catch 22.

Either way.
This sucks.

I will say tho... been watching some auctions lately and it sure seems like the great equipment reset may be happening...

[jdg364]

The RB auction in sedley seemed very light (I didn’t go and look at the equipment).

The only fertilizer that’s reasonably priced right now seems to be potash.

[TASFarms]

Sprayers were way cheaper than what dealers list