Canola, Time for a Sale

[crusher]

Canola has made a pretty impressive move over the last couple of weeks. I can't predict the future so I'm going to make a futures only sale today. I believe the basis should get better.

[wrongway]

seems like stats can not in a hurry to come out with any crop production numbers or use and carry overs...some might say they are trying to help the big "families" steal this crop

[wheatking16]

The Canola chart is bullish telling us to ride the short term trend higher.

[LEP]

seems like stats can not in a hurry to come out with any crop production numbers or use and carry overs...some might say they are trying to help the big "families" steal this crop

Usually takes until the December report to revise production downward.

[wrongway]

don't know where I heard it but statscan changing their name to statscan't

[LWeber]

Usually takes until the December report to revise production downward.

Because STATSCAN can change production for up to 2 years after the December report and up to 5 years in an Ag Census year, production estimates can change unless the data is older than 5 years. The chart shows two periods - September to December changes and then December to the final. September to December estimates have increased 11 out of 18 years and gone down for 7. The final final has only gone down in one year out of 18. The average miss in 18 years is 700,000 MT from Sep to Dec and 690,000 MT from Dec to the final. Their accuracy is the same today with computing power as with paper and pen, 40 years ago. Their inaccuracy is not a hill to die on, as every green number displayed in the chart has underestimated the crop and held prices higher; however, most traders are keeping their own set of S&Ds.

[wrongway]

On a chat with Dave Reiman about saskcan numbers a few years ago he just laughed and said just what you did Larry...we keep and follow our own numbers.

[jdg364]

With the crush/export pace someone has been selling cnl.

Cnl prices are much improved from harvest lows.. I think a lot of guys are using $15/bu as a target to let X amount go. Myself included. It would be nice if wheat would rally a little so I could clean up a couple grain bags.

[the big wheel]

With that amount of canola moving basis levels are an absolute theft, we were told with all these new crush that basis would be so low ya right .

[crusher]

Are any of the new crush plants buying yet?

[LWeber]

Are any of the new crush plants buying yet?

"Our new canola crush plant in West Regina, Saskatchewan, is anticipated to open in the second half of 2025."

[shtferbrains]

IMHO Biofuel to the California market might be one of the higher risks for tariffs?

[Wheatking]

"Our new canola crush plant in West Regina, Saskatchewan, is anticipated to open in the second half of 2025."

So how many of the actual announced crush plants are going to be built;

Cargill Regina - 2025 completion. 1 million tonne capacity

FCL/AGT Regina- Supposed 2027 completion date, but I don't think they have broken ground yet. I can't find any hard numbers on the size of the crush plant.

Ceres Global - Dead was supposed to be a 1.1 million tonne crush plant

Viterra Regina - Postponed until bunge merger resolution. 2.5 million tonne capacity. Was supposed to be built by late 24/ early 25. I'd bet the farm that this never gets built, and if it does equivalent bunge plants will be mothballed.

Richardson Pionneer Yorkton. 1.1 million tonnes in increased capacity. should be done by now, but I can't find any news articles on it.

Louis Dreyfus Yorkton. 1.1 million tonnes. Should be done in 2025.

Total Guaranteed Canola expansion for harvest 2025 = 3.2 million tonnes.

Possible future crush(I'd be amazed if both get built) = 3 million tonnes approx for a total of 17


Our harvest 2025 crush capacity up to approximately 14 million tonnes. This would tell me basis should significantly improve for next year.

[ajl]

Bunge is supposed to build a new crush plant in Lamont county AB, which is the 'hood for me, replacing the old Fort SK facility. Would be nice but I doubt it gets built as well since it has been at the announcement stage for 2 years now.

[bucket]

Typical big announcements , then crickets.

AGT was supposed to build a pasta plant back in the day. Whatever happened???? AGT was supposed to rebuild the Churchill rail line as well, I see that is back on the government tit. Off topic , just some random things I have noticed over the years.