No confusion here

[Old Cowzilla]

Grain prices suck cattle market hot,hot,hot land prices getting hotter and guys still selling cow herds to grow more grain on higher priced land to grow more lower priced grain. ?????

[foragefarmer]

Lifestyle, can't holiday in Florida or Arizona 4-5 months out of the year when you have cattle.

Beside, cattle guys are finally geting paid for their work.

Long over due.

[BreadWinner]

My advice to the cattle guys is to sell everything including the cats and dogs now!!!! After 25% tarrif next month the cattle market will have a crazy sobering moment. US always gets their way for a while. R-calf, BSE, Now Trump etc the protectionist's always get the duty put on cattle and it takes years to get it taken off.

[ajl]

Cattle markets do appear to be softening a bit lately and the land market as well. Nominal strength is now due only to a very weak loon. Both of these are coming from very lofty levels. Cattle profits now driven by cheap feed. Recent report saw 2024 being the first year of declines in Iowa land prices in many years. Will have to watch to see if that is the start of a long term trend but given the fed did not collapse interest rates in the US it will turn into one before long. Fertilizer companies crying the blues as well: Lost NTR on an options exercise @$72 three years ago. Can buy today at $65.

[15444]

Grain prices suck cattle market hot,hot,hot land prices getting hotter and guys still selling cow herds to grow more grain on higher priced land to grow more lower priced grain. ?????

You missed the best part about the guy that sells his cows to grow cheap grain and then quits that after a few years to sell the land to another guy that can grow grain even cheaper.

Problem is, what happens to the really big guys when there is no money in the grain? Sell cheaper land to smaller guys that think they'll be ok at cheap grain prices as long as they own more land?

[furrowtickler]

Lifestyle, can't holiday in Florida or Arizona 4-5 months out of the year when you have cattle.

Beside, cattle guys are finally geting paid for their work.

Long over due.

Agree on long over due for sure

Several cattle guys here doing grazing corn , can give them a break from feeding everyday
few guys even taking a few weeks off in winter for the first time in decades . Works ok for some

[furrowtickler]

You missed the best part about the guy that sells his cows to grow cheap grain and then quits that after a few years to sell the land to another guy that can grow grain even cheaper.

Problem is, what happens to the really big guys when there is no money in the grain? Sell cheaper land to smaller guys that think they'll be ok at cheap grain prices as long as they own more land?

I think that time is upon us now .
Larry said way back in July there will be a lot of red ink on the majority of grain farms
Its here now

[farmaholic]

What? FertCos crying the blues because there is less room to gouge gross farm income?

[goalieguy847]

Our fert companies arent crying the blues.. they are basically just saying...

The same thing we are.

" this is effed. 1280$ phos"

Its not like our locla independent retailer sets the price when its all set by new orleans and the US dollar.


Again.
I RENT LAND FROM NUTRIEN FERT PLANT.
and i pay more for fert than guys in Regina.

Absurd.



I believe.... ( atleast i hope) that trumps tariffs may actually help our grain markets in canada.
globalization is absolutely effing us and if we get all these bio diesel/ crush plants up and running then we will basically be able to eat ALL of our canola that we produce. Unless, of course we magically start growing 55 bushels on 20 million acres ( thatll happen when verticullium wilt is marching across the prairies and canola companies come out with BRAND NEW canola .....but is still gen 1 clubroot genetics 15 yrs later!!!!)

maybe we produce the same amount of fert here in western canada but it doesnt go to foreign markets so we get to see some lower prices at home ( we wont) .

Some isolationist policies wouldnt be a bad thing for local farmers.

Maybe? Who knows. All i know is this isnt sustainable. It hasnt been for 5 yrs and its only getting worse.

If the world is a global market place and we are subject to all sorts of these margins and values weighing on us from other countries... how is auzzie canola at 850/ mT and we csnt stay at 600.

I understand it.. i do.. but then dont tell me that russia isnt exporting any fert and thats why ours is sky high!

Its all just hogwash and silly games that we control none of...but keep signing up for.

[furrowtickler]

Green Lightning…. Maybe we need to start producing our own fert on farm .
we need to become much lower cost producers, most of our dryland crop production in western canada cannot support high input costs . Production levels in no way can support high input farming on 80% of the prairies anymore .

[ajl]

Take a look at the stock performance of nutrien and mosaic. NTR was $125 a couple years ago and is $65 today with a devalued dollar and lower interest rates. Similar at Mosaic. Of course investors had bid up the stock price with the we can't lose as they can rip off their western canadian customers at will mentality. My plan for 2025 involves reducing inputs (lower seed rates and fertilizer, along with reducing coverage, weed control spending will be steady) I will top dress the better land areas to even it out as my land is solonetzic. In '24 there was 55 bu wheat in the better areas with around 10 on the solonetz so trying to even that out. With less inputs can reduce coverage. Only canola will be carry forward. Fertilizer prebuy was slightly lower on urea but a bit higher on phos per pound. Lower volumes.

[farmaholic]

Manufacturers/wholesalers versus retailers.....

I think retailers make more money on high wholesale prices too...

15% of $1000 is more than 15% of $800.

I highly doubt retailers drop their margins the higher wholesale prices go.

In the infamous Alf Bryan's words, "I may be wrong but..."

[shtferbrains]

Grain prices suck cattle market hot,hot,hot

They used to finish cattle at 1350# and worry abouts grading A4.
Doesn't appear to be an issue now.
More beef from fewer cows.
1900# target weight on fats?

[Old Cowzilla]

My fat angus 4-H steer in 1974 weighed about 900 lbs finnished Don't think you would want any of those finished steers stepping on your toes . Lots of fat to mix with cull cows for hamburger nowadays.

[shtferbrains]

Tallow