Barley Plebescite Deadline - Midnight, March 13

[charliep]

One final note to make sure everyone has voted in the barley plebescite. The mail in ballot must be post marked no later than tomorrow at midnight, (March 13) to count. I encourage everyone to both vote themselves and encourage their neighbors to vote.

My guess on results is that they will mirror very closely the Innovative Research Group results commissioned and released by the CWB spring 2006. The pages are 24 and 25 for those of you who have the report. With a three part question asked permit book holders, results were 29 % CWB only domestic human consumption, 46 % open market with a CWB alternative and 19 % no CWB at all. With the plebescite going out to non permit book holders, would suspect the numbers would shift to more of the open market questions but the real issue will be who votes/who doesn't express their opinion.

[charliep]

46 % should be domestic human consumption and export.

[Ron]

Actually if you believe the CWB the dual market isnt an option so instead of #2 we have to go with #3 and get rid of them altogether.
I was actually going to vote for #2 at first but the CWB helped me decide when they claimed they couldnt compete with an open market.

[charliep]

Monday morning.

29 % status quo. CWB maintains single desk status domestic human consumption and exports.

Would agree with Ron that a less will vote the open market with a CWB option.

[charliep]

Found the following exert from the press release issued last Thursday (CWB asks Minister to produce plan on barley marketing) interesting.

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/newsroom/releases/2007/030807.jsp

“We’d really like to see a concrete and detailed plan from the government,” said Ken Ritter, Chair of the CWB’s farmer-controlled board of directors. “Independent analysis shows that the single desk provides farmers with a materially higher net benefit. In examining the repercussions of the potential loss of the single desk on barley, the board has concluded that in an open market, farmers would not receive a materially higher net benefit from the sale of their barley.”

Does the last statement indicate the board of director feel farmers will be no worst off in an open market barely setting?

[parsley]

Interesting analysis, as usual, charliep.

[chaffmeister]

Why is the CWB asking the govt for a plan? Isn't that what the B of D and the high priced executive staff supposed to do?
Does this mean the CWB has no plan?


"When you fail to plan, you plan to fail."
- Lindsay Hoogie, ex WCE floor trader.

[chaffmeister]

funny the CWB claims not to have a plan, the Minister instructed them to come up with a plan a long time ago. Oh I forget the BOD of the CWB do not like the Minister and refuse to do any thing he says, funny thing to do for an arms lenght government agency!
Seems like they just don't want to play with the other childern in the playground. Some might say they need a good spanking!! Spare the rod spoil the child my parents use to say!!
All along most farmers know the CWB can and will work in a choice market environment with barley. We know the facts that they don't play a role in barley at all. Our maltsers have had growth and expansion curtailed by the CWB.
The CWB has a plan that can work I believe yet political grandstanding and continued fear mongering and interference from provincial goverments that do not want growth or change in those provinces have left a sour taste in most producers mouths.
Threats of more leagal challenges from the CWB BOD takes away any (if there is any left) credibility of the CWB.
Our international customers are seeing this, and no doubt are talking to the Canadian grain trade which has marketing conections world wide anyway to continue to supply the needs of those countrys once the CWB does crash and burn.
too bad, it could survive if it had the disire!!!

[parsley]

erik,

The CWB Board of Directors have indeed formulated a transition plan and a sound plan to work within an open market environment. To do otherwise, would cause legitimate ministerial wrist slapping.

They just do not want to reveal it, because that would mean that first of all, they admit they can work in an open market environment, and secondly, they have a plan to set into gear.

Hence, fighting, arguing, bitching, crying, moaning ,and throwing themselves prone on the floor over Option #2 would be an illegitimate antic.

And it is an antic. You can't even classify it as a tactic, because it is so poorly thought out.

Unfortunatley, it does serve to expose the depth of capability at the elected Board level.

Parsley

[Incognito]

http://cmte.parl.gc.ca/Content/HOC/committee/391/agri/evidence/ev2584898/agriev32-e.htm#Int-1826565

Hon. Ralph Goodale (Wascana, Lib.): …..Thirdly, the allegation has been made that the board has not done contingency planning in relation to a number of matters, but most especially what happens in the event that a plebiscite succeeds and therefore the process and the act is triggered, and so forth. Reference was made to contingency planning.
Mr. Measner, I think it would be important for you to give us the assurance in as much detail as you can, as the chief executive officer of the board, that this contingency planning has been in fact undertaken and that the board is in a position to cope with unforeseen circumstances should that contingency arise.

Mr. Adrian Measner: …..You have my assurance as CEO that we have looked at contingency planning very seriously. We are looking at the barley issue very seriously. We will be ready for whatever changes are going to be made there. I do want to know what those changes are. If there are going to be changes, I want to know whether there are going to be guarantees. If we're involved in barley, I want to know if we're going to be able to use the contingency fund to backstop that.

[charliep]

Interesting comment from Adrian Measner. Remember a comment from Adrian in Western Producer that the CWB could survive in an open barley market. Never could find it in going back over old issues WP so maybe my faulty memory.

I note the CWB has signed 2007/08 contracts with maltsters at what are likely to be some pretty high prices. The CWB can take these contracts forward and offer to farmers in the potential new world. I suspect there is a one year period where the CWB can be very competitive with the open market provided they are creative. The second year will be more of a challenge.

[Burbert]

Hey Guys, What the heck kind of plan do you think that the Alberta Gov't has in place for barley marketing, other than, lets just turn it over to the international grain merchants, the private sector, haul South to the US. Other than trashing the CWB or Ottawa, for that matter, Alberta, has NO PLAN in place for anything. Look at the McMurray fiasco, that has unfolded, look at energy prices province wide, look at medical premiums, look at our crumbling roads and towns, look at the potholes in the capital city, look at how badly the Oilers are playing. Look at the Heritage Trust Fund, Oh I forgot thats a secret, we don't know how its doing, TRUST us, it's invested in the market. No environmental policy, fresh water drying up, pollution on the rise. Forgot about the SPECIAL PLACES, glad I don't live in/near one. The only thing that has been a slight success is the privatizing of Govt Liquor stores, the prices have gone up, but there is now lots of market choice, lots of different brands. What happened to the bullet train from Nisku to Fort Mac, talk about stupid. The last I heard is now there is talk of barging heavy loads down the Northern river system, upstream to Fort Mac, since the railway won't handle the giant oilsands projects. Hell it has been suggested that the barges could back haul grain to Asia, after they off load the equipment. Anybody out there got a 13" auger they aren't using? How's that for a future farming plan?

[winwin]

Burbert;look at this while I lean over.How are my hemeroids doing?

[winwin]

Parsley,Charlie,etc you cannot really expect us to have a PLAN to compete for grain in a free market!

We cannnot command and control without a monopoly.That is our real job.Not to 'serve'the peasantry.

Besides,to formulate a plan for barley would be an admission that it would work.That would actually pave the way for it to happen.Next,it would start everybody thinking it might work for wheat,too.

Our motto here at the CWB is"don't go there girlfriend".

Central Planning means that we have the power to plan everybody else's affairs.We are totally incompetent,comrade,to run our own business.

[charliep]

Burbent

Alberta is a net importer of feed grains and this will not change in an open market. All that is being asked is to provide true market signals about export sales opportunities and the ability for farmers to deal directly with our local maltsters at a price that reflects the sale value of the product which is being delivered. If you choose to use the CWB as your business partner and to pool your payments with others, great. Don't ask all your neighbors to do exactly as you do or force them to use the CWB.

Morning after the deadline. Now the waiting begins.