Friday Cocktail plus the news of the week.

[blackpowder]

"""""""""""Agriculture hopefully ok in the future, but much easier to enter if you also have another skill set to supplement/fall back on"""""""""

Why get into it in you have to subsidize it with another job to make it viable?

Do professionals hold a back up degree or tradesmen have second jobs to earn enough to live?

There are or will be 2 types.
Large enough for full time.
Full time career supplemented by small farm.
At $1.2M per quarter those will shrink.

And employees.

[bucket]

The large guys buying out 55 -65 year olds because those guys probably have 45 years in at the farm. And are looking for a hobby without expenses as in being an equipment jockey . As that model fades away , so does qualified labour with a history on that land . Then the real shit show begins.

[AllisWD45]

Happening already

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Full time career supplemented by small farm.
.

I think you have that backward. In most cases it seems to be the career supplementing the farm. With no hope of profit on the farm. I feel really badly for the wives of some of these operations who work multiple jobs so the farm can buy shiny machinery far out of proportion for the operation.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It was Economics 101 in 2011-2012 regarding buying US$, not 13-14 year old hindsight. The blindfolded dart throwing Monkey market analysts even got that one right.

I guess forages hindsight marketing service is not going to respond with any real time predictions. I thought perhaps he could at least tell us how dumb we are for not lying back or Canadian dollars when he did. He hasn't yet, in hindsight predicted when he did that, I will assume he still holds the US dollars.

That works out to an annualized return of 1.9% over that time. That's less than inflation, far less than gold or farmland or the stock market or nearly any other investment that can be measured in dollars.

I've never understood the theory of exchanging one declining asset for another declining asset.

[Old Cowzilla]

Spent most of farming career with second job now bigger job seems to be transition of farm to son without saddling him with debt while providing retirement income for wife and I. And still helping other kids. When 60 thought I had 10 more good years now at 65 not as sure

[furrowtickler]

Nearly everyone I know grain farming has always had a second or third or fourth income stream .
relying on straight grain farming income is extremely risky in dry land farming .
I have had a second job for 35 years .

[blackpowder]

I think you have that backward. In most cases it seems to be the career supplementing the farm. With no hope of profit on the farm. I feel really badly for the wives of some of these operations who work multiple jobs so the farm can buy shiny machinery far out of proportion for the operation.

The operations you mention are a thing of the past.
Where they do still exist, it's on equity, for now....
Inheritors of land below viable size will have careers elsewhere.
"Farming" a hobby farm on weekends.
Hiring field operations or "renting" the land out in various arrangements.
Depending on their size, attachment to the dirt or lifestyle.
Their kids will see land as an investment only. Or a burden.
Hobby farms a lifestyle choice.

[wrongway]

we were lucky wife worked to pay personal expenses and get a home in the city. i was stay at home dad and a 4x4 farmer (4 weeks in spring and 4 weeks in fall). this was during the doldrums of the 90's and the 00's. didn't matter what you did you couldn't make much money so the idea was to minimize losses. So we got used to having a small farm with old equipment mostly paid off. at 60 years old and during jusnits 2nd term decided to get rid of all debt and make farm basically bullet proof...well to a certain extent. Kids now all on their own and have great careers. AT christmas time told them that who ever wants the farm can have it lock stock and barrel and I would stay on for free till I can no longer work. Well none of them even considered leaving their jobs to farm. I'm ok with this. I hope to farm another few years in case they change their minds.
There is no way my farm can pay for new equipment but from what I see is this is not necessarily a bad thing.
The great lie that if you're not moving forward you're dying is a narrative to keep farmers spending more and more borrowed money.
It took 47 crops to get to this point in my life with a lot of luck and help and if I had a chance to do it all over again I am not sure I'd take it. But I will definitely enjoy farming as long as I can and will let my kids pay the capital gains tax, lol.

[blackpowder]

I really appreciate that post.
But the moving forward mantra is more than myth.