Talking about trade.....

[kANOLA]

These times could be compared to flying high speed aircraft in heavy fog with no instruments.It could come out Ok but scary for the time being.Lets hope we came look out of cockpit and see ground sooner than later.

[farmaholic]

In a newsletter I recieve, I didn't read about Canada using energy as leverage yet.

I hate getting wet in someone else's pissing matches. This can't end soon enough

[AlbertaFarmer5]

From Anas Alhaji:


- US Shale produces light sweet crude, good for gasoline, naphtha, and NGLs. We produce close to 9 mb/d, export about 4 mb/d because US refiners do not want it. Expansion will produce more of the same; cannot replace Canadian crude. - The US imports about 6-7 mb/d of mostly medium-heavy sour due to demand for diesel and heavier products. We import about 4 mb/d of Canadian medium/heavy sour. We need the Canadian crude - The US cannot replace these amounts by increasing production, now or in the coming years. Crude quality matters. - President Trump wants to increase US crude production significantly, but he CANNOT. Here is why: [url]https://anasalhajjieoa.substack.com/p/drill-baby-drill-and-shale-can-trump…[/url] ([url]https://t.co/zhu93OFlSy[/url]) - We cannot replace Canadian crude, now or in the coming years. Venezuela might add 200-300 kbd in 2025 with lifted sanctions and investment. South America is maxed out. No replacemnt for Canadian crude. - Only Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq can replace SOME Canadian crude. But the US aimed for decades to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern oil. - Claims that the impact on diesel prices is lower than what is stated in the tweet below because it's 4 mb/d out of 21 mb/d consumption miss the following points: 1- Crude quality matters; most US diesel and heating oil comes from Canadian crude. 2- Geographic location matters; Canadian crude is refined in the Midwest, distributed in the region and Northeast, causing concentrated impact. But the problem is way larger: Higher prices will attract supplies form other states that has nothing to do with Canadian oil. This ripple effect will affect several other states. The irony is, we might end up in a flood of petroleum products in the Midwest while other states suffer! - Tariffs are affecting the entire energy complex, including natural gas and fertilizers. Now is a planting season for several crops. Farmers' costs will increase. If the dollar remains strong, farmers will suffer again because they cannot export their products. To conclude, crude quality matters. Increased US oil production will be light sweet, while replacing Canadian crude requires medium/heavy sour. Countries with this quality are those the US avoids dependence on. They can replace about 1.5-1.7 mb after 3-4 months, not the 4 mb/d from Canada. However, the cost of Middle Eastern oil, even with a 25% tariff on Canadian crude, is higher than Canadian crude. Even then, there is no way to get that oil to the Midwest.?

[shtferbrains]

In a newsletter I recieve, I didn't read about Canada using energy as leverage yet.

I hate getting wet in someone else's pissing matches. This can't end soon enough

The Tariffs Trudeau put on US imports feature Farm products prominently.
If there are carve outs that will be an aggravating factor?
Hard to interpret the language but seems to have harvest equipment on the list.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

The Tariffs Trudeau put on US imports feature Farm products prominently.
If there are carve outs that will be an aggravating factor?
Hard to interpret the language but seems to have harvest equipment on the list.

Is it safe to assume that the Canadian counter tariffs would be strategically designed to Target red States and the industries therein?

[shtferbrains]

Mostly a bunch of bullshit

[url]https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/02/list-of-products-from-the-united-states-subject-to-25-per-cent-tariffs-effective-february-4-2025.html[/url]

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Mostly a bunch of bullshit

[url]https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/02/list-of-products-from-the-united-states-subject-to-25-per-cent-tariffs-effective-february-4-2025.html[/url]

Nearly half the list is agricultural products. Search reveals nothing to do with automotive.
I'm sure that has nothing to do with the promised escalation that Trump said will happen if Canada retaliates.
Looks like rural and Western interests are being thrown under the bus and not Eastern and urban liberal voting regions.

This one stood out:
Other prepared or preserved meat, meat offal, blood or insects

So much for the New world order making us eat the bugs.

[furrowtickler]

Mexico makes a deal to shore up border and pause tariffs for a month .
will be interesting will come of the chat between Trump and Trudeau later today .

[TASFarms]

Might need to see the list they didn’t put tariffs on. It’s probably shorter.

[Taiga]

Well Mexico has already exempted themselves from the tariffs. Took them what, about a day to negotiate that? All they had to do was send 10,000 troops to the border.
And Canada does indeed have a fentanyl problem.