Talking about trade.....

[shtferbrains]

Canola market doesn't look too spooked so far on the overnights. Down $10 per ton. Soy oil up. Could that be because the tariffs on China will reduce the used cooking oil/new Palm oil?

Will canola oil exported to the US destined for fuel market be tariffed as energy at 10% or with everything else at 25%?

I think the everything else may be a gross exaggeration?
Time will tell.
Reports Trudeau will get his Trump call tomorrow

MSM is enjoying the Trump all day everyday.

Trudeau has new life making campaign like stump speeches that please him.

[errolanderson]

No one wins a trade war . . . .

Cryptos, Nvidia and stock markets in-general getting a serious beating behind-the-woodshed. Donald will not be pleased . . . .

[WiltonRanch]

No one wins a trade war . . . .

Cryptos, Nvidia and stock markets in-general getting a serious beating behind-the-woodshed. Donald will not be pleased . . . .

What’s your view on possibility tech bros and vultures behind Trump purposely crashing markets to make their huge short positions pay?

[Landdownunder]

intelligent coherant balanced discussion pros and cons no eye rolls

some scribes here mirror some of this discussion "righthly or wrongly love him or despise him this is the reset the world needs"

[AlbertaFarmer5]

"righthly or wrongly love him or despise him this is the reset the world needs"

Couldn't have said it better myself.
??????

[Jay-mo]

A couple things, first, if Trump thinks, "oh ill put the hurt on Canada and Trudeau will cave to my demands!" Wrong, the more damage to Canada the more Trudeau loves it.
Second, everyone chuckles when Trump talks about making Canada another "state" but I think we should believe him when he says it. Good chance he really thinks he can make it happen.

[kANOLA]

These times could be compared to flying high speed aircraft in heavy fog with no instruments.It could come out Ok but scary for the time being.Lets hope we came look out of cockpit and see ground sooner than later.

[farmaholic]

In a newsletter I recieve, I didn't read about Canada using energy as leverage yet.

I hate getting wet in someone else's pissing matches. This can't end soon enough

[AlbertaFarmer5]

From Anas Alhaji:


- US Shale produces light sweet crude, good for gasoline, naphtha, and NGLs. We produce close to 9 mb/d, export about 4 mb/d because US refiners do not want it. Expansion will produce more of the same; cannot replace Canadian crude. - The US imports about 6-7 mb/d of mostly medium-heavy sour due to demand for diesel and heavier products. We import about 4 mb/d of Canadian medium/heavy sour. We need the Canadian crude - The US cannot replace these amounts by increasing production, now or in the coming years. Crude quality matters. - President Trump wants to increase US crude production significantly, but he CANNOT. Here is why: [url]https://anasalhajjieoa.substack.com/p/drill-baby-drill-and-shale-can-trump…[/url] ([url]https://t.co/zhu93OFlSy[/url]) - We cannot replace Canadian crude, now or in the coming years. Venezuela might add 200-300 kbd in 2025 with lifted sanctions and investment. South America is maxed out. No replacemnt for Canadian crude. - Only Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq can replace SOME Canadian crude. But the US aimed for decades to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern oil. - Claims that the impact on diesel prices is lower than what is stated in the tweet below because it's 4 mb/d out of 21 mb/d consumption miss the following points: 1- Crude quality matters; most US diesel and heating oil comes from Canadian crude. 2- Geographic location matters; Canadian crude is refined in the Midwest, distributed in the region and Northeast, causing concentrated impact. But the problem is way larger: Higher prices will attract supplies form other states that has nothing to do with Canadian oil. This ripple effect will affect several other states. The irony is, we might end up in a flood of petroleum products in the Midwest while other states suffer! - Tariffs are affecting the entire energy complex, including natural gas and fertilizers. Now is a planting season for several crops. Farmers' costs will increase. If the dollar remains strong, farmers will suffer again because they cannot export their products. To conclude, crude quality matters. Increased US oil production will be light sweet, while replacing Canadian crude requires medium/heavy sour. Countries with this quality are those the US avoids dependence on. They can replace about 1.5-1.7 mb after 3-4 months, not the 4 mb/d from Canada. However, the cost of Middle Eastern oil, even with a 25% tariff on Canadian crude, is higher than Canadian crude. Even then, there is no way to get that oil to the Midwest.?

[shtferbrains]

In a newsletter I recieve, I didn't read about Canada using energy as leverage yet.

I hate getting wet in someone else's pissing matches. This can't end soon enough

The Tariffs Trudeau put on US imports feature Farm products prominently.
If there are carve outs that will be an aggravating factor?
Hard to interpret the language but seems to have harvest equipment on the list.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

The Tariffs Trudeau put on US imports feature Farm products prominently.
If there are carve outs that will be an aggravating factor?
Hard to interpret the language but seems to have harvest equipment on the list.

Is it safe to assume that the Canadian counter tariffs would be strategically designed to Target red States and the industries therein?

[shtferbrains]

Mostly a bunch of bullshit

[url]https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/02/list-of-products-from-the-united-states-subject-to-25-per-cent-tariffs-effective-february-4-2025.html[/url]