Talking about trade.....

[Marusko]

There's a lot of buzz and panic about this drop, 5% is a lot in one day but the drop from the high is pretty minor in the grand scheme of things. Dow at 40,800 today - that was a ALL TIME HIGH!!! less than a year ago.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

And more importantly, does anyone seriously think that the bloated stock market is in any way a reflection of the health of the economy today?

In the era of ever increasing money printing, most of which finds its way into the stock market, the stock market has been a reflection of future expectations of more money printing.
If this administration succeeds in eliminating the deficit/ money printing and the inflationary impacts of that, the stock market will have to go back to trading actual fundamentals of the component companies.

Under that scenario, the stock market could very well decline while the real economy and employment improve.

[errolanderson]

Crude oil, gasoline and diesel fuel remain in-a-dive . . . . WTI oil could break below $50 per barrel. This suggests WCS Select (Alberta) oil could crack below $40 per barrel.

Long term diesel chart suggests a major support challenge of $2 per gallon soon. Should crude continue to tank, diesel prices could be taking aim approaching $1.50 per gallon. We’ll see . . .

China and German economies appear to have entered a depression. Canada now in a deep recession. The U.S. is clearly in-recession.

Major concessions and a dose of rational economic thinking needed ASAP (IMO).

errolanderson.substack.com

History made today: Largest intraday reversal in the S&P 500 index. Bull trap . . .

[agstar77]

Tariff wars never end well. Somebody needs to pluck the Black Swans feathers.

[shtferbrains]

History made today: Largest intraday reversal in the S&P 500 index. Bull trap . . .

Bull Trap?

Economic indicators are out the window with Donald Trump changing his mind mid sentence?

[errolanderson]

Traders told to stay at their desks at some brokerages. Asian markets expected to open sharply lower testing circuit breakers overnight . . .

[Marusko]

And more importantly, does anyone seriously think that the bloated stock market is in any way a reflection of the health of the economy today?

In the era of ever increasing money printing, most of which finds its way into the stock market, the stock market has been a reflection of future expectations of more money printing.
If this administration succeeds in eliminating the deficit/ money printing and the inflationary impacts of that, the stock market will have to go back to trading actual fundamentals of the component companies.

Under that scenario, the stock market could very well decline while the real economy and employment improve.

What is the best store of wealth in that scenario? Sounds like Cash. We've all heard the phrase "Cash is King". Yet in the long term trend spanning decades, cash has been a loser to inflation.

Tariffs are inflationary. The reversal of deficit spending means a lot fewer federal employees, which is actually a deflationary move - fewer people employed means there's less money to spend. I'm not sure that the goal of tariffs - to eliminate trade deficits - would actually improve employment enough to offset the cuts that musk and trump have made to employment. Manufacturing is highly automated nowadays.

Seems to me the US gov't is pinching the middle class in these moves. Hard to say what the net effect will be in the end.

During the COVID dip and the recovery from the 2022 market lows, I was borrowing money to fill my TFSA and RRSP. not doing that this time around. My crystal ball says we're looking at stagflation.

[tubs]

This is what you after you can not kick the can down the road.

[wheatking16]

What is the best store of wealth in that scenario? Sounds like Cash. We've all heard the phrase "Cash is King". Yet in the long term trend spanning decades, cash has been a loser to inflation.

Tariffs are inflationary. The reversal of deficit spending means a lot fewer federal employees, which is actually a deflationary move - fewer people employed means there's less money to spend. I'm not sure that the goal of tariffs - to eliminate trade deficits - would actually improve employment enough to offset the cuts that musk and trump have made to employment. Manufacturing is highly automated nowadays.

Seems to me the US gov't is pinching the middle class in these moves. Hard to say what the net effect will be in the end.

During the COVID dip and the recovery from the 2022 market lows, I was borrowing money to fill my TFSA and RRSP. not doing that this time around. My crystal ball says we're looking at stagflation.

I find to store of wealth discussions to be challenging.

Every asset I have looked at has had a significant drop in value at some point in time.

Timing is everything.

IMO, store of wealth changes with the times.

My intuition tells me several traditional "stores of wealth" will see significant drops in value in the coming 2-5 years.

At the same time, other assets will outperform.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

What is the best store of wealth in that scenario? Sounds like Cash. We've all heard the phrase "Cash is King". Yet in the long term trend spanning decades, cash has been a loser to inflation.

Tariffs are inflationary. The reversal of deficit spending means a lot fewer federal employees, which is actually a deflationary move - fewer people employed means there's less money to spend. I'm not sure that the goal of tariffs - to eliminate trade deficits - would actually improve employment enough to offset the cuts that musk and trump have made to employment. Manufacturing is highly automated nowadays.

Seems to me the US gov't is pinching the middle class in these moves. Hard to say what the net effect will be in the end.

During the COVID dip and the recovery from the 2022 market lows, I was borrowing money to fill my TFSA and RRSP. not doing that this time around. My crystal ball says we're looking at stagflation.

I think that asking about a "store of wealth" is the wrong question.
That was the correct question during the money printing inflationary period (which is all any of us have ever known) during which the entire economy has been financialized.

Now that the western economies might be shifting to producing things instead of printing money and using that to pay someone else to make things, we should be investing in assets that produce wealth, instead of trying to store wealth.

We can't all make our fortune investing in intangibles and hoping that inflation will make them worth more than we paid.

Invest in productive assets and live off the profits.