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Canaries in the elevator shaft.

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    Canaries in the elevator shaft.

    ?The grain handling sector, from pulses to terminals, is overbuilt. I doubt anyone is making money, as elevators are operating at reduced capacity. Costs are up across the board, and the carbon tax is an operational slug through the whole value chain.

    It's a question of viability and staring at the face of tariffs makes that question for too many: immediate.

    I expect Cargill management looked at the pulse balance sheet and decided to put the plug on peas. Ingredion did the same a few weeks earlier.

    Cargill & Ingredion shuttering in Saskatchewan are both canaries in the mine.
    Amazon is another canary, albeit in a different sector in Canada.


    The value-added sector is essential. We need domestic demand.

    Maintaining markets in the world is a policy issue and they are essential.
    Western Canada must seriously take ownership, as ongoing issues with our major trading partners of China and India have resulted from the management in Ottawa.

    This is why I suggest our ag associations in Western Canada need to own policy directly and not just production issues.

    But let's look at how we address issues, one of the major influences has been the environmental agenda! Despite us being the number 1 sustainable farmers in the world we are denied carbon credits by made-in-Canada regulations. And then the climate cult has a preference for plant-based meat and pulse protein, which is good for us. But the direction of insect protein is preferred to beef is not! They continue to denigrate beef, falsely, for its negative contribution to climate. As a person who pushes the back, I must say the response from the beef sector has been limp, to say the least. But it's even worse from the commodity groups who pompously say:
    Beef has nothing to do with me, I am a grain farmer!

    Case in point Bill C 293! The province of Alberta aside, they took the lead.

    Indeed, the grain industry needs the feed sector for the huge demand and market dynamics they create. Where does a canola meal go after all?

    We are in a wake-up call time. We need to define what makes us relevant in the rapidly expanding protectionism in the world of ag and trade. We have been here before and we always lose.

    I have posted earlier about issues I see as essential: Efficiency, review of all programs, carbon credits included, leading genetics and I suggest that we all accept the fact:
    We are either part of the solution or part of the problem. It's not someone else job, it's yours: Be an ambassador.

    It is your industry: Own it.?
    Last edited by westernvicki; Feb 12, 2025, 11:35.

    #2
    We need to see the canaries.

    Comment


      #3
      An uneducated ramble.
      BSE hurt a lot of producers.
      But what else was at play beforehand?

      I believe that when we overlook/ignore a business or economic principles long enough, a paradigm shift occurs. And like a hard rock mine collapse, it's fast.

      BSE, 911, Covid, defied predictions but were sudden drivers.
      Can't say, but is the Trump govt a paradigm shift driver? Or just a factor. We have been here before, the early 80s come to mind.

      Point is. We have been rearranging deck chairs while finger pointing for decades.
      Every govt and every organization by nature, have been busily milling clothes with invisible thread. Pick an issue.

      If I was 25 years younger I would if nothing else be highly aware of the potential for a paradigm shift, at the very least a big change in costs.
      But then, if I was that young I wouldn't know what any of this means......

      Keep up the good work Vicki

      Comment


        #4
        I am not too worried about the graincos. They have been doing a remarkable job of maintaining margins by not competing too hard for grain. We see that in the wide basis that were getting this year. Yes the carbon tax also is widening the basis, however, at this point if the tax is dropped the bond ratings would drop in interest rates rise. We desperately need a reduction in government spending. The pulse industry needs a reliable buyer that is not half broke like india is.

        Comment


          #5
          Vicki, did C-293 die with prorogation?

          Comment


            #6
            Age old problem every country has increasing domestic demand. Almost at saturation point cant create it out of thin air.

            Its almost finite, increase population helps, change habits or sadly lower prices.

            Personally I doubt insect protein will ever take off. If it does will be impactful for beef.

            Australia we export a lot of beef to Canada flip side we import a lot of Canadian pork.

            Great for our beef producers not yours Pork great for your pork producers not ours. But tis free trade.

            Comment


              #7
              What really bothers me about insect factories is if there was a breach.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by littledoggie View Post
                What really bothers me about insect factories is if there was a breach.
                A disease in the bugs would be concerning too. I picture dead grasshoppers turned purple, dead and glued to the wheat heads after an infestation and I never sprayed a thing. Imagine the sicknesses possible in a bug factory? How would they know if they are grinding up deathly sick bugs and feeding them to humans? I guess not my problem, I won’t be eating any bugs anyways.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by littledoggie View Post
                  Vicki, did C-293 die with prorogation?
                  Two opinions on this one Yes: two no that private members' bills survive. I wrote the Senate and asked, but so far have not received a reply.

                  Either way, the LNDP unanimously was willing to sell our sovereignty out, and AG failed to even flag the intent. A lawyer named Lisa Miron flogged the bill two years in, on LinkedIn is how I found it. Good Grief!


                  As far as worrying about grain companies and why this is a canary we need to pay attention to I respond below. Yes, only rationalization will solve the overbuild, but at the end of the day, this is about farmers.

                  Farmers are the supply. If Grain cos. Cannot compete globally we are in trouble: they must compete globally. Their market and supply are international, and most are multinational they can make their annual return in other jurisdictions. Canadian origin must compete for sales. We need them to choose Canada as a competitive origin.

                  The inefficiencies are fixed in: BASIS. Competition is good, indeed it lowers basis, but indeed capital has a long-run cost that must be supported.

                  How do costs add up? How does Canadian policy influence costs?


                  Made in Canada issues:
                  ??????1/ Logistics: Strikes impact performance, costs, and reliability.
                  Any idea of what an idle ship at port costs per day when we have a strike?
                  How does an unreliable transport network affect the repeat orders of an export company?

                  We, as an industry from farm to trade, must compete, how do we compare with our international competitors, in terms of cost to market and delivery time to market? And reliability of delivery. Do we know? We should know.

                  How has the sector, from farm to trade, shared the benefit of the CROW RATE change which promised greater efficiency? Do freight rates & national freight policy need a review? Including an essential service tag?

                  Even more complex is cost sharing of maintenance of national transportation corridors who pays for what: The US dredges the Mississippi, for example! This impacts Freight costs.

                  Let's talk:

                  2/ International Trade & Trade Policy: If we want to explore international trade beyond the USA we need to solve the logistics quagmire. And we need leadership that comprehends the influencers and value of trade.

                  The trade war with the USA should not have had to be the reason to know this, but it will be. India just reinstated tariffs on yellow peas, a timely reminder of an ongoing trade issue that Canada has mostly ignored.

                  Agriculture is the most valuable but undervalued, and overlooked industry in Canada.

                  We span the A to Z of global trade.

                  3/ Carbon tax: this has been the single largest most pervasive erosion of Canadian competitiveness (& increased consumer costs ever), but can anyone tell me what the cost is of the carbon tax from the farm to the port?

                  Why do we not know this? I have lobbied the WGRF to do a comprehensive study on carbon tax with their millions in reserve money to no avail. What I was told, is that is not in their mandate... Go figure. We need to get the mandate changed!

                  The recent MNP study on Canadian Agricultural competitiveness put us in the middle of the pack: we are going to get trampled there, and yes this involves everyone from production to distribution.

                  The elevator companies are just one of the canaries in the shaft. We are one too.


                  ?



                  Last edited by westernvicki; Feb 13, 2025, 10:32.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by littledoggie View Post
                    What really bothers me about insect factories is if there was a breach.
                    There will be super bugs bred.

                    Comment

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