what canola tariffs?

[goalieguy847]

"Why do you have to go and ruin every perfectly good conjecture with actual facts?

"



That was my mistake. I meant over december of 2024 vs jan 2025.

they also brought in 50 k mT of canola oil in january alone. Which was nearly half of what was brought in all of 2023 and waayyy more than in 2024 ( 15 k mT).

Correct me if im reading the data wrong..
Can we not see that china may have just bought a years supply of canola oil and now only needs seed to crush and make their own meal?see what febs numbers bring out of china...
but this SHOULD drive local crush nunbers wayyyyy down down ...but keep export values up...
interesting how the bunge/ viterra merger will afect things and also what happens IF usa comes back into the buying fold * if they do*

its sort of just reading tea leaves.

China didnt put a tarriff on canola seed for a reason... probably due to the amount of crude canola oil they just brought in ( and maybe bought... we dont get that data in canada, correct?)

[LWeber]

"
Correct me if im reading the data wrong..

I have no idea where you're getting that data. 50,000 MT of canola oil is 2 vessels (120,000 MT of raw canola) - not quite a year's supply I'm afraid.

[furrowtickler]

Worst threesome ever for western Canadian farmers
We have our own government, China and the U.S. beating us up now

[JoeyJeremiah]

Worst threesome ever for western Canadian farmers
We have our own government, China and the U.S. beating us up now

That's not the threesome I had envisioned when getting F*****, but I guess its the threesome we are getting.

[farmaholic]

I think I watch enough news, mostly CTV National, and try to catch local CTV @ 6.
I don't think I heard a peep about the China canola tariff on CTV Natinonal once. They did cover it locally though. But they drone on and on about steel, aluminum and Ontario's threat of tariffing or cutting off power to the U.S.

I don't know if CBC or Global covered the canola tariff or not. But it sure wasn't getting the press Eastern Canada's tariff risks were getting.... on CTV National anyway.
I could have missed it...

[TechAnalyst]

I have no idea where you're getting that data. 50,000 MT of canola oil is 2 vessels (120,000 MT of raw canola) - not quite a year's supply I'm afraid.

What are you doing Larry, you know the data better than that. According to the Canadian International Merchandise Trade data issued by Statistics Canada,

China was shipped 393,046 mt of canola seed in Jan. 25 vs 104,890 mt in Dec. 24. Almost 4 times the previous month - a return to the market without question.

China was also shipped 50,472 mt of crude canola oil in Jan.25.
That compared to 665 kg in all of 2024 -- 121,787 mt in all of 2023 -- and 185,109 mt in all of 2022.

In the time from Feb. 1 until the tariffs were announced, China could have already been shipped nearly the same as all of 2023 (a years worth) and a huge rebound from 2024.

I have no idea why you would confuse the data with your chart on Canadian Dollar values of obviously REFINED canola oil (1514.19) instead of CRUDE (1514.11) canola oil to discredit a proper post. Seems like something a troll would do.

[errolanderson]

Group, I’m old enough to remember Black Friday, 1987. Think I was planning analyst or herbicide buyer at Alberta Pool at the time. Regardless, have seen most everything markets can throw in my career.

When markets are tanking and the fear factor is ramping up . . . as Warren Buffet would say ‘buy!’ when fear is in the eyes-of-investors. You can bet your boots that Mr Buffet will be buying shortly as equities dump. He has an enormous cash stock pile. Cash is indeed king . . . .

Here’s the bottomline . . . . Canola is oversold. Albeit, tariffs and margin calls could drive prices lower yet.That’s part of the heightened emotion in the market. But this is an elastic band being pulled and getting stretched. Any sniff of tariff relaxation and we have a sharp shortcovering rally on our hands.

This will happen, it is just a matter-of-time . . .

My suggestion is: go about your business as best you can. Try not to stress. When futures are weak and basis levels are weak, strategy do nothing. Your day of price reckoning will come. Plant the crop, try to ignore the news. A lot of it is BS anyway.

This situation will sort itself. Tariffs are shortlived because they are an emotional reaction. Political egos in the spotlight. But high emotions don’t last long in markets.

But with that said, the richest man in the world is no longer the richest. I’m amazed at the lack of business judgement by Elon. What will waving a chainsaw in the air get you?

Will Tesla share plunge trigger a call of Twitter loans? Musk apparently now sweating along with his shadow bankers reported. Not sure happy or sad, but a marketing book will be written about this fallout and business failure one day.

There is a light at the end of this mess, no question. Don’t change your seeding decisions. Markets can change on a dime, and they will. GOOD MARKETING!

[shtferbrains]

Fundamentals haven't changed?

[goalieguy847]

What are you doing Larry, you know the data better than that. According to the Canadian International Merchandise Trade data issued by Statistics Canada,

China was shipped 393,046 mt of canola seed in Jan. 25 vs 104,890 mt in Dec. 24. Almost 4 times the previous month - a return to the market without question.

China was also shipped 50,472 mt of crude canola oil in Jan.25.
That compared to 665 kg in all of 2024 -- 121,787 mt in all of 2023 -- and 185,109 mt in all of 2022.

In the time from Feb. 1 until the tariffs were announced, China could have already been shipped nearly the same as all of 2023 (a years worth) and a huge rebound from 2024.

I have no idea why you would confuse the data with your chart on Canadian Dollar values of obviously REFINED canola oil (1514.19) instead of CRUDE (1514.11) canola oil to discredit a proper post. Seems like something a troll would do.

F*CK ME. THANK YOU.
I thought i was going crazy.
But no. im not an idiot.

Even DTN reported on this.

Feb numbers could be interesting and show that china COULD be, infact, gearing up to import more seed and less oil...focusing on more crushing there of canola seed
( especially with a concern of soy avail and trade war spats)

I found some online data ( and also heard thru a bud higher up at pioneer seeds) that china has a new winter **** variety that could go in after their rice crops ( usually not planted ). This was also reported on sometime ago but the variety is being tested out in larger areas in 2025. Again. So i have heard.
It would make sense that they are attempting to keep their refiners full ( and stockpile prior to throwing on a huge tariff) amidst trade concerns with USA.

Will be interesting but it seems the winds of change could be blowing...

Yeesh.. and im not even a fancy ag analyst.

[LWeber]

What are you doing Larry, you know the data better than that. According to the Canadian International Merchandise Trade data issued by Statistics Canada,
Seems like something a troll would do.

I did that refined oil/meal chart on Sunday, March 02 for a crusher who has assets on both sides of the border that wanted it in dollars with meal and refined oil for US and China because that's what they asked for - on a Sunday no less. I put it in with the meal first. When you figure out why they wanted refined oil and not crude, please email me.

Both of you think that 50k of oil is substantial when it equates to 120,000 MT out of 3 MMT of seed already shipped to China in 6 months - a paltry 4%.

Nah, Mitch, if I was trolling, I would have called myself Tech Analyst 2 and said:
It is not about the oil, stupid, it's the meal.