what canola tariffs?

[furrowtickler]

Soooo, what are you saying ??
Seed canola, don’t seed canola?

totaly respect your opinion all the time , but it’s all doom and gloom the majority of the time , so… stay the course or not ?

it frustrates a lot of farmers when one sees this type of shorted options , that leave us thinking are we in or out from those that know the markets far better than we do .
its frustrating

[furrowtickler]

It’s like politics , half answers that leave the door open to confusion, speculation and conspiracy

[farmaholic]

I am the furthest thing from what you could call a marketing Guru, and a poor apprentice at that. I don't have the knowledge or expertise to challenge any of the people who have a much better handle on the subject than I do.

But of the things that move markets... at the moment(or just before the price collapse) does chart analysis have any value? Major damage to them has occurred. Fundamentals in all likelihood remain the same but the "political" influence on canola market has delivered a knock out punch. "POLITICAL" influence!!!!!!!

Will the USA political influence "Trump," and China's political "Ji(n)pping" of the canola market change the fundamentals?
Will either of those markets purchase less whole canola seed, refined or crude canola oil, or meal? Demand may still be there but political financial penalties will have stolen value that ultimately cost those at the farm level.

Once again we are being influenced by things beyond our control. Influenced by the actions of our OWN and foreign federal/state governments.

I hope Errol is right this time, that there has been an over-exaggerated market "reaction" and an upward price correction is coming. Will we get back to where we were? I honestly don't know but you can't help but to think all the damage to the market won't be repaired.

I think Larry Weber either coined the phrase or quoted it when he said, "hope" isn't a good marketing strategy. Well thats all I have at the moment.

[TechAnalyst]

Soooo, what are you saying ??
Seed canola, don’t seed canola?

totaly respect your opinion all the time , but it’s all doom and gloom the majority of the time , so… stay the course or not ?

it frustrates a lot of farmers when one sees this type of shorted options , that leave us thinking are we in or out from those that know the markets far better than we do .
its frustrating

The problem is you can ask 10 analysts and advisors and get 15 answers.

My personal opinion (that might only be worth as much as you paid for it) is stick to your rotation and plans. Remember, just mere weeks ago new crop prices were flirting with $15/bu depending on basis.

I feel the canola market is failing miserably in its primary function to discourage or encourage demand and supply through price signals.

Fear and anxiety over what if's have controlled it for too long now, keeping the price too low to send proper signals to impact what is actually happening.

Accumulated exports of 6.324 mmt compared to 3.445 last year are a perfect example. The last 21 weeks of the marketing year only need to average 56,000 mt to hit the common export target of 7.5 mmt. Yet the week 31 report Thursday had 197,200 mt shipped! Up sharply from last week's winter low mark of 105,600 mt.

With the EU production falling 2.694 mmt last year from 2023-24, they have actively been buying Canadian canola. Even with the recent decline in European r a p e seed prices (due to a strong Euro), EU ****seed futures are now $167/mt CAD above canola futures compared to a normal range of even money up to a $100/mt premium for EU ****seed. That isn't going to discourage Any demand, especially when total world production was 3.696 mmt lower on the year (including the EU drop), leaving few alternatives to Canada.

The previous posts already highlighted the fact that China can still buy Canadian canola seed tariff free, aggressively ramped up again in January and is surely using the break in price that they were responsible for -- to be buying much more.

So when is the canola market planning on doing its job and discouraging demand?

Domestic crush is the excuse but there are no signs of any slowing. Week 21 had 212,300 mt crushed, right on the pace needed to meet the annual projection of 11.5 mmt. To date, accumulated domestic use has hit 7.02 mmt vs 6.461 last year.

With canola oil shipments in January showing a diversification in target markets, including other Asian countries - it may not be wise to bet the crushers will just lie down and die. They have far too much invested for that.

Regarding the primary function of ensuring supply - look at the reason for this post.

The market and the politicians responsible for the price action (that don't have a clue about unintended consequences of their actions) are telling producers to cut back on acres just as they are preparing to hit the field.

Talk about a failure to properly do your job.

Again, just my 2 cents worth. (which isn't much given inflation).

Mitch Miller (for your sake Larry)

[ajl]

Just goes to show that the industry has been very successful in keeping canola producers in the dark. Canola council with there 90 day old data. I was aware that farmers were aggressive sellers this fall for cash flow and hole in the bag reasons and I was holding off pricing canola for that reason given supplies were not that plentiful due to lower than expect yields in many areas including mine. China has had a tariff on seed imports of 9% for a long time as far as I am aware.

[farming101]

TechAnalyst, thanks for your comment.
To add to what you have stated, for the week ending March 9th elevators reported another 188,500 tonnes were put on the rail for the west coast.
Also Quorum reports there were 47 ships at Vancouver and Prince Rupert for week 31.
Oh and to add, Quorum also estimates there is demurrage accumulating on 22 of those ships. I'm sure trickle down will make that disappear off the books.

?

[TechAnalyst]

Just goes to show that the industry has been very successful in keeping canola producers in the dark. Canola council with there 90 day old data. I was aware that farmers were aggressive sellers this fall for cash flow and hole in the bag reasons and I was holding off pricing canola for that reason given supplies were not that plentiful due to lower than expect yields in many areas including mine. China has had a tariff on seed imports of 9% for a long time as far as I am aware.

That could be regarding currently manageable tariff levels, I was referring to fears of 100% tariffs that could be imposed as the result of the separate canola anti-dumping investigation.

It took China 18 months to conclude a similar investigation against Australian barley, ending with a 100% tariff being imposed.

From Sept. 2024, that would equate to a Mar. 2026 announcement (should they repeat the pattern). Plenty of time to get all the 2024-25 imports they want (at discounted prices now).

[TechAnalyst]

Just goes to show that the industry has been very successful in keeping canola producers in the dark. Canola council with there 90 day old data.

I would like to suggest it's not likely producer groups responsibility to worry about current data given all the other sources out there.

But there sure should be a LOT of screaming going on behind the scenes! Policy influence certainly is their job.

[Rareearth]

Market development?
????

[LWeber]

[QUOTE=TechAnalyst;n813521

But there sure should be a LOT of screaming going on behind the scenes! Policy influence certainly is their job.

[/QUOTE]

Is this an RBC position?
If not, why not?
Does Tryhuk agree?
Does Tony's boss?