Whats every one seeding?

[SASKFARMER3]

Just a quick question what are the seeding intentions of people on this site.
On our farm we are going with
3000 canola down 700 from last year
2000 peas up 800 from last year
2300 Durum up 1300 from last year
700 barley up 500 from last year.
It seems in our area this is normal with oats picking up acres, Cleaning plants are going round clock cleaning oats. HRS very little cleaned yet. Peas seed is hard to find.
Looks like farmers are voting with their drill. On our durum acres could still switch to half that amount depending on what is cleaned at our plant in the next three weeks. if no wheat by then we will go with HRS for half the cereal acres.

[silverback]

Canola dropping out, barley increasing with peas up also.

[BennyHin]

From what my neighbours are telling me, canola seed is being returned for those who havent hedged their Nitrogen costs,
oats, are way up.
I think the oat acres will become burdensome once the two major US buyers realize the production potential later this spring. In my opinion, if you havent locked in $2.65 - $2.75/bu on one half of your long term yields, you might want to re-think your position. How often did you have the chance to lock in $2.65 /bu oats this far out?

[kamichel]

Double the Canola, 640 new acres of peas and half the wheat. Switching all to CWSW dropping HRSW due to past several years of price dissappointment. Canola is all IMC although does not pencill out as good as Invigor.
My take on oats is scandinavian countries are cutting back on acres as well as the USA so should expect big demand in the coming year and high price of corn is driving price. My neighbours will have oats all around me. Also neighbours talking barley as it pencills out good. 4 dollar malt picked up prospects helping that out. Never heard of anyone cleaning CWRS wheat yet. I may pick up 4 quarters of new land so will plant barley there if get it.

[agmaster13]

Canola is up 40% from last year

Barley is up 15% from last year

Canary Seed is equal to last year

Yellow peas are double

Spring Wheat is 30% of last years acreage

[BennyHin]

I love these posts, actual commodity marketing discussions.

Clarification on my last post: I said the guys who HAVEN'T locked in their Nitrogen are returning seed. For those mostly hedged, they will increase for sure.

I dont know what percent of you pre-priced or applied N in the fall, but for the guys who didnt lock in, they arent significantly increasing their canola acres... going to barley peas or oats instead

However, I think most of us locked in a good part of our Nitrogen costs, so overall canola will still increase perhaps to 14.85 -14.95 million acres.

(14.85 million acres at 30 bu/acre = 10.1 MMT !!!).

As for oats. We can speculate that corn may trade between $4.25 and $5.00/ bu, between now and next winter. but we shouldnt assume a normal corn/oats price relationship in next year.

Corn is undergone some fundemental pricing changes with respect to the specualtive ethanol industry. Energy (ethanol) is now driving corn futures, not feed demand. We cannot continue to grow record amounts of oats in Canada (2007-08 W. Can production potential = 4.7 - 5.0 MMT..ouch),

and maintain the historial futures relationship to corn.

There are few buyers for Canadian oats in the US. Regardless of what corn is trading, if we significantly increase our oat production beyond US import requirements, the oat basis will quickly become more of a factor in price discovery than the than the underlying (overly speculated) CBOT futures value.

[dalek]

From the East, looks like we'll be at about 600 acres of corn, 140 already in of winter wheat, about 50 each of barley and soybeans, and 120ish of alfalfa.

[mustardman]

54 % of acres Durum -instead of HRSW

28 % of acres Peas up 15%

7 % Desi - zero last year

7 % lentils - zero last year

3 % Kabuli- down from last year

No Canola still waiting for nexxera to go from last year.

[mustardman]

No mustard this year either- even though $.22 contract looks pretty good.