Black Swans and Elephants. The Apas Summit.

[westernvicki]

Black Swans and Elephants.

The Saskatchewan Ag Summit 2025, organized by APAS, began with Marlena Boersch of Mercantile addressing the Export sales reporting and how well it works in Australia and the USA, highlighting our ongoing inability to implement this essential improvement. The list of topics included: How to effectively lobby Ottawa. Trade Wars. Ag Retail. The distressing reality of Canada's declining position in global trade: we have fallen from 5th to 7th before the trade wars. We need to focus on infrastructure, investment, and a national agriculture vision. The good news is that we are the most sustainable crop-producing country in the world, as documented by the Global Institute for Food Security (GIFS); the bad news is that we are falling behind in plant breeding.

Lots of elephants in the room, suffice to say.

It would be hard to deny that everyone was “gobsmacked” by the reality that generations of ineffective decision-making in our industry have weakened our competitiveness and resilience, now add the Black Swan crisis of two trade wars.

The most recent trade war with China imposed 100% tariffs on Canola meal, oil, and peas, both essential crops in Western Canada. The Chinese tariffs are believed to be a response to the retaliation for Ottawa's 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs. Ottawa is on the public record of defending the EV tariffs.

The Ag industry's contribution to GDP is 150 billion, of which the commodity sector includes the primary industry of farmers, value-added industry, handling and transportation logistics, the supply, and service sector. By comparison, the auto sector's contribution to the GDP is 14 billion GDP, according to Statistics Canada. And while it is important to build Canada's technology with the EV sector, sacrificing western Canadian commodity production is not a trade-off Canada can afford.

The recent Aid announced program promised 100 million. Distributed through AgriStability, a program that has less than 30% enrollment in the commodity sector (according to industry sources), is both untimely and inadequate.

Tyler McCann of the Canadian Agri Food Policy Institute summed it up: Amid two trade wars and collapsed farm income, he noted that we need “A cohesive approach to risk management, which accounts for the rapidly changing environment and our capacity and limitations in addressing threats.”

The reality is that Western Canadian farmers are in two trade wars with our largest trading partners, and individual farmers cannot battle the US and the Chinese treasury alone, which is where they are.

Again, Tyler McCann of the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute nailed it: “We need a meaningful national agriculture policy to realize opportunities and drive growth and sustainability for the sector.” More so, the challenge of western Canadian farmers is to own our industry and define meaningful national policy for western Canada within Canada.

APAS had a phenomenal day. They brought together farmers and farm groups to discuss issues, which was a huge accomplishment. However, the day ended without a mutual agreement to proceed and address both the Elephants and the Black Swans.

The future of implementing strategic Western Canadian Ag policy for the long term is still in limbo, as it has always been, with the impending circumstances being more dire.

Western Canadian Ag is at a crossroads, both with themselves, with
Canada and the world. The multi-billion-dollar question is: Will ag leadership step up to the plate, and will Ottawa accept the challenge of including western Canada as part of Team Canada?

Vicki Dutton
Sask Pulse Promotor 2024
1 306 441 6699


Note: 2 billion promised for Auto.
100 million to a program with 30% of farmers enrolled in.


?

[westernvicki]

Is there anyone in the ag community capable of addressing the need for change.
200 million in WGRF and the question was: Who would pay for a think tank?

Meanwhile Australian Grain Growers just met and did their strategic review.

Its been ever so, lots of representatives, no leadership, and zero influence in Ottawa.

Speak now, or forever hold your peace, we are at a crossroads.

[farmaholic]

Don't forget this symbolic animal.

[blackpowder]

I'm not gobsmacked at all.

[bucket]

What I find amazing is that export sales was put on the table 4 years ago, probably longer if a guy looks at people who tried to explain it to moronic politicians when the CWB disappeared . Why does it come up in a crisis?

Why is it with farm groups its always crisis management and the rest of the time they cheerlead each other on insignificant issues.

They bring a bunch of farmers together, expect them to lobby their politicians and then the farm groups go back to sleep.

Do not dare ask WTF they do with the rest of their time because that hurts their feelings.

I was once cold called from a farm group chair telling me I had no business asking potential candidates their views on ag policy . To which I kindly told him to "phuck off". But it taught me it is just a big club and I ain't in it. I am ok with it since I pay my checkoffs , haven't asked for a refund so I can continue to question their incompetence.



You can't have farm groups cheerleading conservatives and get nothing in return. A drought a few years back was ignored by conservatives and the ag committee in Ottawa while they took the time to analyze help for a flood on a flood plain in BC and the potato wart issue in PEI (they got a tremendous per acre payout BTW)

And whatever what was discussed at the APAS summit highlights crisis management and complete incompetence on behalf of those that say they represent us. OR we wouldn't always need these types of meetings.

You don't see the American farmer complaining too long before the programs are announced.

10 billion recently announced equates to what for our farmers?

For those that say we don't need money from government , maybe they should remember every farm generation prior received something in the past that probably allowed them to farm today.

[bucket]

Don't forget this symbolic animal.

Is that Gerry?

[farmaholic]

Is that Gerry?

Now that was funny on two levels. Good one.

[westernvicki]

I'm not gobsmacked at all.

Indeed, remaining Gobsmacked is key to demanding action!





We have the Grain Growers group, which should be forming an urgent national committee to respond on behalf of farmers during this trade war:

1/ TRADE WAR ROOM

1/ Stabilize Income Loss:
AgriStability: estimated that less than 30% of farmers are enrolled. The moribund program, needs to be revamped, and must become inclusive if that is what the Feds want to use as a vessel to address income loss.

2/ Stabilize Debt Cost:
Long Term Debt: Reduce and stabilize the cost.
Profitable farmer support reinvestment. If they cannot, this problem expands into service and supply, and capital drains far too rapidly.

3/ Diversify and Value Add;
Encourage and support diversification value add: Tax Credits
Intelligence sharing with producers and industry to understand the plausibilities.


Then, go to the list of unsolved issues:
The think tank would prioritize the list from one to ten at what problems we tackle and SOLVE.

My pet, End Use Royalty so, like Australia we can support the investment in the best genetics for future success.

My SOAP BOX: Canada has fallen from 7th to 5th, this is a very slippery slope, and so far, we have yet to apply the accelerator to move us ahead.

And Finally

Get TYLER MCCann from CAPI to define the process!
Get Chris Dekker of STEP to moderate the process.
Get Weber to connect the statistics as to why the actually matter.

Of course we can continue to put our heads in the sand, laub shit, or be proactive.

I chose proactive.. YOUR TURN.



→ Australia has the same system and produces results. Why have we failed? We have lots of representatives and zero influence. Influence is what matters, and influence must be coordinated Grains Australia Advisory Committee consists of representatives from:

[blackpowder]

I acknowledge I have the luxury of being Statler and Waldorf and apologize for my apathy. Pavlov's dog?
I admire your energy and admit I have none.
Few know more about how we got here than yourself.

I haven't been to a meeting physically in years. Recently I've stopped reading trade mags and reports.
It all blurs together over the years.
TV interviews from the early 80s don't really sound any different from interviews today.
Just stating fact when I say I'm not surprised at the total void of give a damn out there.

A healthy industry needs 30-40 year old CEOs getting involved. Civic involvement a thing of the past.

Ask around any coffee pot you can.
Nobody knows what you're talking about. Try it!!!

Unlike the US or Aus, we have no representative Senate.
I dunno.
Of the 70% that are not enrolled in Agristab, how many would be eligible for support for 2025?
I've always supported End Use Royalty. But choose not to be pilloried for it anymore.

I don't know why this seems so impossible. We have over 100 years of resigned acceptance embedded in our culture. My God, look how exhausting it was to get rid of the CWB! The implosion left a vacuum of people, ideas, and energy that exists today.

I say completely rewrite the existing producer groups first. Flame thrower.
And no more poor us media interviews.
Start by publishing the dollar cost per bu or acre.
Sales reporting.
Rail infrastructure at Port.
Loading antiquities at Port.
Rail freight incurred at delivery?

Antiquated licensing for everything from varieties to chemistries.

Instead? Crickets.
Biggest issues on the news in 24 relating to agriculture?
Removing carbon tax on drying grain.
We inflict the stupid on ourselves.

[westernvicki]

And the molding 200 million at WGRF needs to be used to fund a think tank and create and ongoing process to advance and implement policy for Western Canadian farmers.