Black Swans and Elephants. The Apas Summit.

[TASFarms]

How did protein Cluster program work out?
Why can’t the feds match the dollars/acre the US is paying out.

[westernvicki]

From Weber, I never asked just grabbed it.. OOPS

Weber Newsletter:


Yay, Team Canada! Go, Team Canada.



Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said if the ruling Liberals won an April 28 election, his government would create a C$2 billion (CAD 1.40 billion) fund to boost the auto sector's competitiveness. (From story below)



GOOGLE AI: The auto industry plays a key role in Canada's economy. With a $14 billion contribution to the Canadian economy, motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts manufacturing is one of the largest manufacturing sectors. Canada's auto industry directly employed 125,000 workers in 2022, including 37,000 in assembly, 17,000 in truck and trailer production, and more than 71,000 in parts. Factoring in additional auto-dependent jobs along the value chain, as well as other spin-off jobs, the auto industry supports an estimated 462,000 jobs across Canada. Proposes: 1.4 billion to help with tariff wars



GOOGLE AI: The Canadian agriculture and agri-food sector is an economic powerhouse, supplying approximately 2.3 million jobs and contributing $143.8 billion (7.4%) to Canada's GDP. Gets 108.7 million to help with tariff wars



If that doesn’t accentuate where agriculture fits in Canada and that insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results...



Who will lead to organize a deep dunk policy review think tank meeting?
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[hsiemens1]

CD - podium Cam Dahl: "Producers have tools to manage price changes or input costs. But right now, we don't know what's coming—even next week."


CD - Larry Weber: "The estimated federal cost of the announced support is $108.7 million," Weber said. "On Saturday, the newly appointed Minister didn't mention the number. Reporters had to ask staff afterward how much money was involved."



The audience is listening - and look at the real numbers


By Harry Siemens


Several days in the fall of 2024, after the American people elected Donald Trump as president of the United States—our closest neighbour to the south—Cam Dahl called for leadership from the Canadian federal government. He urged a coming together of all provinces and, just as importantly, a united front from all farm organizations and sectors across Canada, whether wheat, pigs, canola, or dairy. The call was clear: develop a Canadian strategy to deal with the Americans and Donald Trump and find a way to work as neighbours for mutual benefit.

With a federal election underway in Canada and no clear leadership in sight, Dahl is once again sounding the alarm—this time at the grassroots level.


Dahl, the general manager of Manitoba Pork Council, said the current political uncertainty threatens agriculture more than market fluctuations or rising input costs.

"Producers have tools to manage things like price changes or input costs. But right now, we don't know what's coming—even next week," he said.

That unpredictability is stalling decisions on everything from production levels to basic maintenance and capital investment. "It's almost impossible to plan. And uncertainty always comes with cost."

Dahl encouraged farmers to get involved in the federal election by voting and speaking up. "The easiest way is to attend all-candidates meetings, get to the mic, and ask questions." He recommends producers press candidates on key issues like trade and tariffs: ask what their party plans to do in the short term to ease the impact of tariffs and what their long-term strategy is if those tariffs remain in place.

He says now is the time for farmers to push for clear answers. These are critical questions; Dahl said Canada's immediate focus must be on dealing with tariffs from China and the U.S. "We're in an election, which makes it hard to negotiate. But these threats need to be the top priority."

He pointed to Europe, where non-tariff barriers continue to block Canadian pork. "We need to double down and remove those to reduce our reliance on the U.S. and open up new markets."

Dahl said tackling trade issues requires more than political action—it requires teamwork across provinces and ag sectors. "We need a strategic plan. At a minimum, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta should work together. We share the same interests."

He believes producers, industry groups, and governments must join forces regardless of political stripes. "Whether it's pork, beef, or canola, we can work together on outreach and push for solutions to these trade challenges."

In a recent column, Dahl compared today's political moment to the old movie line, "The audience is listening." Now is the time for agriculture to speak with one voice, starting at the farm gate and carrying through the entire value chain.

Dahl reminds producers that the April 28 election will decide 343 Members of Parliament—including 14 from Manitoba—each with influence over key ag issues. "Every MP will have a role in shaping policies that affect farms, processing, trade, and regulation."

He said agriculture drives urban and rural economies, with the hog sector supporting jobs across Manitoba.

Dahl said producers should make trade and tariffs their top concern when speaking with candidates. Manitoba exports 90% of its pigs and $9.3 billion in agri-food products. Threats from the U.S., China, and non-tariff barriers in Europe are putting jobs and incomes at risk, and they need action now.

Dahl says political parties must present a clear, actionable plan to address growing trade threats. He encourages producers to ask three key questions when speaking with candidates:

• What is your plan to mitigate the impact of tariffs in the short term?
• How do you work with trading partners to eliminate tariffs and other trade barriers?
• How will you diversify markets for Canadian agriculture? Dahl stresses that these answers are critical for securing the industry's future.

Dahl said several critical issues beyond trade need attention. These include reforming agencies like the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, ensuring science-based regulations, and preparing for animal diseases like African Swine Fever and Foot and Mouth Disease. He also urges a shift from punitive measures like the carbon tax to incentive-based support for sustainable practices. Ask the political parties whether they will reform business risk management programs. However, he stressed that no one can proceed without first addressing the immediate trade threats.

Dahl said while agriculture has always dealt with uncertainty, today's most significant risks are political. These challenges threaten the industry's long-term sustainability and investment. With the election approaching, he urges farmers to speak up—because if they don't, others will, and those voices may not truly understand agriculture.

Dahl said it's not about changing the message but doing a better job of reaching urban Canadians. "The story's there—we just need to tell it more effectively," he says. With 22,000 jobs tied to Manitoba's pork sector, including thousands in cities like Winnipeg, Brandon, and Neepawa, he believes it's crucial to highlight agriculture's role in driving jobs, growth, and the province's economy.

One final thing…The Psychology of Numbers

Larry Weber, President of Weber Commodities Inc., based in Saskatoon, SK, runs a commodity analysis company serving farmers, traders, and importers. Weber urged both farm leaders and the non-farming public to examine how little real support the federal government has offered to Canadian producers under tariffs imposed by China, Europe, and the United States.

"The estimated federal cost of the announced support is $108.7 million," Weber said. "On Saturday, the newly appointed Minister didn't mention the number. Reporters had to ask staff afterward how much money was involved."

While that figure might shock and awe some downtown Torontonians, Weber said, it didn't fool many farmers—though it did fool some farm representatives.

"To put it in perspective," Weber explained, "in 2025, $108.7 million will buy you:

– 21,740 acres at $5,000 an acre

– 99 new combines at $1.1 million each

– 177 houses in Calgary at the March average of $612,838

– And it will only seed and harvest 264,960 canola acres—just 2.1% of the 12,229,500 acres

Weber's message is simple: the federal government's numbers might sound big, but they don't go far—not in today's farm economy.

He said, take a long look at the numbers above. And next time someone uses the psychology of numbers to shock and awe the city folk, grab a calculator. Larry Weber urges farmers and the public alike to ask how an additional $6.50 per acre is supposed to offset a $70 to $100 per acre discount on peas and canola—discounts rooted not in market forces, but in sheer political posturing. Before suggesting the help is meaningful, weigh it against the real costs.

The irony? The announcement came in March 2025, but any potential AgriStability payment likely won’t reach farmers until late 2026. And you thought the Export Sales Reporting delays were ugly.

Grain companies have been running cause-and-effect models on canola meal, canola oil, and canola seed since early February—primarily focused on the U.S., but with China looming as a definite when, not if, in terms of retaliation. Among farm groups, “policy” has become a four-letter word. And make no mistake—it’s going to bite farms sooner rather than later.
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