USDA Report

[SASKFARMER3]

Corn growers intend to plant 90.5 million acres of corn for all
purposes in 2007, up 15 percent from 2006 and 11 percent higher
than 2005.
Soybean producers intend to plant 67.1 million acres in 2007, down
11 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the lowest
planted area since 1996.
All wheat planted area is estimated at 60.3 million acres, up
5 percent from 2006. The 2007 winter wheat planted area, at
44.5 million acres, is 10 percent above last year and up 1 percent
from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 31.9 million
acres are Hard Red Winter, 8.66 million acres are Soft Red Winter,
and 3.92 million acres are White Winter. Area planted to other
spring wheat for 2007 is expected to total 13.8 million acres, down
7 percent from 2006. Of this total, about 13.3 million acres are
Hard Red Spring wheat. The intended Durum planted area for 2007 is
1.99 million acres, up 6 percent from the previous year.
For soybeans, USDA said U.S. producers intend to plant 67.140 million acres. USDA's soybean estimate is lower than the trade average guess of 69.167 million, and sharply below the 2006 seedings of 75.522.

USDA estimated 2007 soybean stocks at 1.784 billion bushels, above the March 1 2006 stocks level of 1.669 billion.
Oats
4,168.0 4,029.0 the area is down 139,000 acres

any discussion!

[Burbert]

The report is no suprise to me. These numbers have been out for weeks now.

The interesting number though is the stocks they tightned the number on Corn stocks from the March 1 prediction.

Corn stocks at 6070 billion
Soyabeans at 1.784
Wheat at 0.856

The acre numbers we knew would be where they were, but the stocks tightened up on everything, this is huge. Also the midwest right now is very wet, delaying seeding. I don't believe it's possible to get that many acres of Corn in. And if they do get seeded it won't be the yields that the USDA is predicting of 152bu/acre.

Lookout today for Soyabeans, and Canola. If I was looking to sell Canola in the near future might not be a bad idea to sell into this rally. The Soyabean harvest in Argentina is going on right now with some delays, but this will pressure the market in the month ahead.

Also are they going to get adequate supply of Nitrogen for those Corn acres?? I think it could be tough.

Basically any type of weather scare in the Corn market could make this thing really take off.

My darkhorse today is Cotton, acres down to 12.1 million. This is a .20% decline from last year.

[charliep]

Will leave comment on market reaction alone. Ouch. Will note that crude oil prices are moving higher. One or two days does not make a market trend but the combination of higher oil prices/cheaper corn likely will start the building process on proposted US ethanol plants.

Sometimes when you are fishing, you have to stick the hook the water a little deeper. Sometimes markets are no different. The reality however may be it is difficult to maintain $4/bu corn futures short.

[charliep]

Charlie my predictions will come true. The timeline might just be skewed! LOLOLOL.