Hey, chaffmeister, isn't it nice to see a marketing post instead of a policy one? Other posts remind me of why some call this "Angry-ville"! Now my comments:
1)You're right. 9 bucks is a very good price, regardless of the basis, which as I said, works out to about $16 under July. However, for May delivery in southern Alberta, a $10 or $12 under would be more exciting. Recently this year I've seen $3 under for April delivery.
2)Chaff, you're right again about the large futures carry doing producers a favour as long as weaker basis levels don't eat it up.
3)I like the idea of 9 Canuck bucks being "good for him, good for you". Yes, maybe $9.25 would be better for the producer but 9 bucks is still nothing to sneeze at. According to some work I do every two years, the price of canola at Alberta crushers was only at $9.00/bu or better 16% of the time between August 1995 and July, 2005. During that same time period it was $9.50 or better only 3.6% of the time.
1)You're right. 9 bucks is a very good price, regardless of the basis, which as I said, works out to about $16 under July. However, for May delivery in southern Alberta, a $10 or $12 under would be more exciting. Recently this year I've seen $3 under for April delivery.
2)Chaff, you're right again about the large futures carry doing producers a favour as long as weaker basis levels don't eat it up.
3)I like the idea of 9 Canuck bucks being "good for him, good for you". Yes, maybe $9.25 would be better for the producer but 9 bucks is still nothing to sneeze at. According to some work I do every two years, the price of canola at Alberta crushers was only at $9.00/bu or better 16% of the time between August 1995 and July, 2005. During that same time period it was $9.50 or better only 3.6% of the time.
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