Canadian Planting Intentions

[malleefarmer]

Market commentators here are suggesting canadians will grow less wheat this year down 8.4% and plant more barley and corn as its more profitable.
This could lead to canda having 30% more barley to export.
Guess the point was there could be downward pressure on barley prices.

Are the above statements correct in regards to planting,canola didnt get a mention so dont know if its up or down.

[charliep]

The first Statistics Canada number will be published April 24.

Will note that end of crop year (July 31) barley will be pretty much at bin bottom levels so the market can absorb an increase in production. I wouldn't expect a big increase in feed barley exports except for the odd cargo to Japan when prices warrant and potentially some feed barley moving south depending on the US feed grain situation. Neither one of us can compete with Eastern Europe (and perhaps we shouldn't).

Malt barley is a different animal. Domestically there is forward contracting going on but export markets there is next to none. Uncertainty over single desk status, volume and quality means no sales until fall. So potentially both Australia and Canada will be in the malt market at the same time starting December. Europe will have a head start on both of us in terms of sales. Implications will be lower prices - will give the single desk supporters a reason to say I told you so but simply a reality of the market/reflection of an industry caught caught in time warp of change. Tight old crop supplies, weather and quality will remain the unknowns.

Events south of us have put some bullishness back into wheat but still down (maybe not the 8%). Types of wheats will also change with less high end milling quality and more mid quality suitable for domestic livestock and ethanol.

Canola down to up slightly (not the 10 % forecast early winter). High nitrogen prices is pushing farmers to other crops. Pulses (peas mainly) up - an offset to high nitrogen prices in a time of relatively high pulse prices.

Comments from others. What is happening in Aussie land?

[SASKFARMER3]

Just a quick note from whats been cleaned for seed.
Barley just started to pick up last month.
Oats lots going in ground since most guys have cleaned a lot of seed.
Flax non existent.
Canola with our outrageous fert prices I think acres will be down.
Peas are anouther crop that lots have been cleaned.
Durum seed cleaning is picking up.
Wheat is non existent.
Most guys it seems are voting with their drills and not seeding CWB crops except durum.

[SASKFARMER3]

On the canola I should clarify one thing Acres will be up but not to the extent the Markets think they are going to be seeded.

[craig]

I think in Alberta especially the north we will see a large increase in barley acres. Recent weather is pushing back seeding already and that will impact what goes in the ground. With $6.00 contracted peas the only thing stopping huge increases will be seed supplies. I agree some of the shine is coming off canola with high input costs. I am already concerned that with wet conditions we are going to be pressed to get wheat, and argentine canola in on time. Glad we upped winter wheat acres last fall.

[malleefarmer]

Sorry for my ignorance dont you guys make more money growing wheat rather than malt or feed barley?

Planting here in aust will be as much wheat as possible followed by barley then the higher risk crops probably reduced by 25% in favour of above cereals,plus of course less fert and costs in growing cereals.

But the drought is lingering on here normally planting would have just commenced in some parts of aust with sowing in full swing by first week of may but little if any done yet.

Aust could go from was it 7.5 or 8 million tonne to 25 million tonne of wheat if its a good year aust wide but has to rain first.......

[malleefarmer]

PS feed barley peaked out so far for new crop thats 07/08 harvest at $188 delivered port which equates around $160 aust on farm, comparable to you guys?

The US dollar is hurting us as well i think today the aussie dollar was .83 US eight weeks ago it was .74 and experts were talking it down rather than up.

[SASKFARMER3]

Wheat and the CWB Big conversation piece as one can see on this web site.
But reality is if I grow wheat I make $30.00 an acre profit on average, 3000 acres. if I switch to Malt this year and contract it will be $111. So for $81 x 3000 its going to be malt. Oats also pencils out.