Burbert – I am so sorry for you that you are so confused. I suggest it would help if you took whatever the CWB says in this environment with a huge dose of skepticism, rather than the usual blind faith.
The CWB said this:
<i>World malting barley prices have been pushed to this year's high levels primarily by production problems in two of the three major global malting barley exporters, namely Australia and the European Union. New crop supplies will not be available from these regions for some time, which is expected to support global prices until early summer.</i>
I concur whole-heartedly with the CWB here. This is a true representation of the global market. If I were to change anything, I’d say the prices will be supported beyond early summer – but it all depends on weather.
In the same breath the CWB said:
<i> Many customers are now in a wait-and-see-mode, holding off on purchases in the hopes that malting barley values will decline as new crop supplies become available. Customers are also reluctant to make purchases as they are anticipating their ability to access supplies from multiple sellers at values lower than a single-desk seller.</i>
This is a crock. Maltsters are having a very difficult time originating malt barley as it is. If they are not buying more from the CWB, it’s because they have zero faith in the CWB system in terms of getting barley delivered. (Why add to the pain?) They are not anticipating lower values (with a multiple seller environment). They know what the CWB knows – the global market is in a tough spot right now and if anything, the play would be to cover (buy) as much as possible. They also know that European maltsters and brewers are doing just that – to the extent that they can.
The CWB also says:
<i>In addition, higher spot prices in August are expected to erode farmer deliveries previously expected in the 2006-07 pool.</i>
Talk about sucking and blowing at the same time. Customers are waiting for lower prices in a multiple seller environment (after Aug 1) yet higher spot prices are expected. Huh?
And if we’re talking about high new crop prices, what effect did the 07-08 PRO have on old crop deliveries – being about $30 over the 06-07 PRO? Seems to me showing a huge premium for nucrop makes the CWB completely culpable here.
The reason that the market is in “apparent” disarray is because the CWB is being stupid and vindictive, having exposed itself to the vagaries of the market by shorting the market in a big way. It is doing everything it can to extract the maximum pain on any players in the malt barley market. It has threatened to walk away from new crop sales because they are too low priced to be able cover in a choice market. (Contributing to Cargill’s position of delay the switch over to a choice marketplace.)
Even in a single desk environment, these sales were made too low with no backstop. Don’t forget – the CWB operates in a dual barley market already – so single desk or not, the CWB is snookered already for next year. Someone at Cargill needs to realize that even with the single desk in place, they will have a tough time getting barley from farmers this upcoming year. You know, just like this year.
The CWB said this:
<i>World malting barley prices have been pushed to this year's high levels primarily by production problems in two of the three major global malting barley exporters, namely Australia and the European Union. New crop supplies will not be available from these regions for some time, which is expected to support global prices until early summer.</i>
I concur whole-heartedly with the CWB here. This is a true representation of the global market. If I were to change anything, I’d say the prices will be supported beyond early summer – but it all depends on weather.
In the same breath the CWB said:
<i> Many customers are now in a wait-and-see-mode, holding off on purchases in the hopes that malting barley values will decline as new crop supplies become available. Customers are also reluctant to make purchases as they are anticipating their ability to access supplies from multiple sellers at values lower than a single-desk seller.</i>
This is a crock. Maltsters are having a very difficult time originating malt barley as it is. If they are not buying more from the CWB, it’s because they have zero faith in the CWB system in terms of getting barley delivered. (Why add to the pain?) They are not anticipating lower values (with a multiple seller environment). They know what the CWB knows – the global market is in a tough spot right now and if anything, the play would be to cover (buy) as much as possible. They also know that European maltsters and brewers are doing just that – to the extent that they can.
The CWB also says:
<i>In addition, higher spot prices in August are expected to erode farmer deliveries previously expected in the 2006-07 pool.</i>
Talk about sucking and blowing at the same time. Customers are waiting for lower prices in a multiple seller environment (after Aug 1) yet higher spot prices are expected. Huh?
And if we’re talking about high new crop prices, what effect did the 07-08 PRO have on old crop deliveries – being about $30 over the 06-07 PRO? Seems to me showing a huge premium for nucrop makes the CWB completely culpable here.
The reason that the market is in “apparent” disarray is because the CWB is being stupid and vindictive, having exposed itself to the vagaries of the market by shorting the market in a big way. It is doing everything it can to extract the maximum pain on any players in the malt barley market. It has threatened to walk away from new crop sales because they are too low priced to be able cover in a choice market. (Contributing to Cargill’s position of delay the switch over to a choice marketplace.)
Even in a single desk environment, these sales were made too low with no backstop. Don’t forget – the CWB operates in a dual barley market already – so single desk or not, the CWB is snookered already for next year. Someone at Cargill needs to realize that even with the single desk in place, they will have a tough time getting barley from farmers this upcoming year. You know, just like this year.
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