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Market Predictions for 2007-08

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    #13
    Then buy some Behlen bins at $1 / bushel and save 50% over your apparent estimate. It's easy if you try.

    Comment


      #14
      You all are missing the point.

      Benny has pulled the old bait and switch here. As a die hard CWB supporter he is not actually interested in maximizing returns, getting the most out of the market, or selling at the highs.

      The cwb philosophy is buy low, sell lower, blame the feds, and ask for a handout, ala the current malt barley boondoggle.

      He is not actually interested in using any of the hedgingpricing tools out there, that is not the cwb way.

      Benny no doubt has a 'contingency fund' that he has saved up over the years so as not to have to bother with those pesky futures markets and all of those evil speculators and multinationals. That is the cwb way.

      Come on people, Benny is about as much interested in beating the market as Paris Hilton is at reclaiming her virginity.

      Why are you letting him wind you up like this?

      Comment


        #15
        Maybe this is a topic for another thread but BennyHin brought it up with:

        <i>please tell us how all of us can sell 100% of our production Off-the-combine" at reasonable returns, because I hate building bins at $2/bu.</i>

        I see an unfortunate problem with some fairly typical farm marketing described in Benny’s idea. Most farmers don’t see the benefit of storing grain when the market is signaling you to do just that.

        For example, right now the canola futures market is showing a spread between Nov and May futures of $18.40 per tonne. This means that right now you can sell canola for spring delivery at a premium of about 42 cents/bu over the “off-the-combine” price. And this doesn’t even include any basis appreciation. Often the basis strengthens from harvest time to spring as well. If the basis for “off-the-combine” deliveries is historically weak, this would be a further signal to sell for spring delivery and store it.

        I’ve seen as much as a buck-a-bushel to be gained by selling in the fall for spring delivery and storing it. Even so, let’s assume you can get 50 cents – not far off the 42 cents the futures are showing right now. At BennyHin's $2.00/bushel cost, building storage (if you don’t have it already) could give you a 4-year payback on your investment. Using wd9’s numbers of $1.00/bushel means a 2-year payback. In investment terms, that's remarkably good (50% return on investment).

        So if you’re looking to forward sell some canola now, consider your delivery period options.

        I also checked feed wheat and barley – futures show 27 cents and 34 cents per bu gains for deferred delivery.

        PLEASE NOTE – this “strategy” does not say to wait until spring to sell. The “market” is willing to pay you to store but to lock in those “storage premiums” you need to SELL for deferred delivery when the market is showing it – either sell futures first then the cash or just sell cash. Carrying charge markets tend not to earn their carry – which means that the storage premium erodes over time. Waiting to sell is a crap shoot. Selling for delivery when the market is telling you to is smart marketing.

        So to BennyHin – I suggest you take a hard look at the benefits of storing grain. There can be substantial gains in it if you spend some time to market properly – responding to market signals.

        And Benny, before you make the assumption - no, I'm not a broker.

        Comment


          #16
          Chaffmeister,

          Simple observation:

          CWB grains seldom earn this significant fall to spring carry... "large" producers can't take advantage of the many CWB delivery quirks...

          that allow early delivery to low volume/growers selling product to the CWB.

          Comment


            #17
            Tom4cwb, Excellent point that you just made Tom, after all this is really about the big boys isn't it? The rest of us can go jump in the lake, right? No wait I read somewhere, someone once said the meek shall inherit the earth. You duds are basically doomed, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.........

            Comment


              #18
              Chaff, it is important Benny dumps all his production at harvest so the rest of us can enjoy good storage premiums. Absolutely the canola market is paying to store old crop to sell in new crop year and be paid to store. The last western producer had Behlen specials at around a buck a buchel - some less - and with the CCA tax savings even less again, it is financially a good decision.

              So yes, Benny, please oh please sell all your old crop immediately and the second you harvest it, sell and deliver that too. Even better do a storage ticket and price it the last day when the price is at the absolute bottom!

              This will be best for storage premiums for me to pay off those bins in a year and a half.

              Comment


                #19
                Who is Paris Hilton? A farm economist? Leader of the WCWGA?

                Comment


                  #20
                  Frisco, you are way off base. I just asked Tom for his hind site marketing up front for this year.

                  By the way, I see the NDP'rs won in your province again. What will happen with your pig barns now that the NDP have a solid mandate to clean up the environment in your province?


                  God Bless Tom.

                  Comment


                    #21
                    Chaff-Frisco: I have lots of bins, enough to store 90% of my production. I usually store my canola until the Jan - May rallies. Usually sell mustard in the spring time, store canaryseed for 5 years waiting for 25 cents/lbs,....etc

                    But you "market choicers" are always reminding ALL of us that without the CWB we wouldnt need bins as we would have the freedom to sell all our grain of-the-combine in August.

                    Please tell us what are basis levels would be, and how many railcars/week we would need to ship all our production to port in August. Oh, I forgot, once the CWB is gone, we will ship all our wheat to value added flour mills in our local neighborhoods that will pay us $10/bu fob farm (as Parsley likes to say), and any surplus will be shipped via trucks to the USA.

                    Yeh hah, I can just here the welcoming wagons awaiting our arrival.

                    Comment


                      #22
                      BennyHin:
                      What are you smokin'? Whatever it is, I gotta get me some.

                      Don't think any "Market choicers" have said you can sell all of your grain off the combine. Now if you WANT to, that's OK. That's the whole idea of choice. If you were actually listening, you would know that the message is that you have the freedom (choice) to do what is right for you and your farm operation. For you, that appears to be storing grain, waiting for rallies.

                      Comment


                        #23
                        Benny, 'hind site'? I believe you mean -hind sight-.

                        And what the heck is "...hind site marketing up front for this year." supposed to mean anyways? Hind sight is based on after the fact assessments not speculations into the future. Talk about a walking contradiction.

                        "Please tell us what 'are' basis levels would be" I believe you mean -our- basis levels.

                        You want to know who is off base, it is you Benny with your snide and ridiculous questions for Tom. He has never claimed that he could pick the top's, just that he can do a better job for himself than the CWB. There is a difference and you certainly don't have to pick the tops to do it. And what he sold his crop for last year quite frankly is none of your business.

                        I don't know what it is with you monopolists, but you just can't seem to get the idea that those of us who want to sell our own crops are not interested in selling yours.

                        But if you need the government to hold your hand when dealing with all those supposedly evil grain merchants out there that's fine go ahead, just leave us out of it.

                        Comment


                          #24
                          chaff, be patient.

                          There are still guys in East Berlin that line up outside the bakery every morning so they can buy a loaf of bread. And wait.


                          The rest of the customers walk by them, shake their heads, open the door, buy their bread and go home.

                          The old angus heads for the same stall every time.

                          Parsley

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