Market Predictions for 2007-08

[AdamSmith]

Benny, You and Burbert must enjoy being bitter all the time or are you guys just sore losers?

Past experience has shown me (that would be Hindsight) that delivering off board feed wheat and barley right off the combine always gave better returns than delivering to the cwb, always.

The message you should have picking up from farmers wanting to deliver off the combine was that under the cwb system, generating cash flow, post harvest from cwb wheat or cwb barley was completely inadequate for today's world of high cost farming, and also that there was zero financial advantage to any grower to store wheat or barley, because if the price you receive in May is no difference than the price you would have gotten the previous Sept., what incentive is there to store grain?

Under the open market those opportunities will still exist (for harvest delivery)but the market will, if the conditions dictate, reward growers for storing as well. There may be times when the market becomes "INVERTED", that's when the front month price is at a premium to the defferds and not to be confused with the cwb bod's combined IQ.

The signals the market is sending today, is to store grain, next year it may be the opposite. Either way the market will adjust and as a grower, you will do well if you pay attention and react accordingly. But as others have said that's your choice and responsibility.

[TOM4CWB]

Benny,

I think what bugs me more than anything... is that "single minded" folks ignore the obvious.

The CWB continues to sell all grain through Pool accounts (including PPO grain)... masking real and needed market signals.

Here is an obvious example of CWB logic... as to why this must continue:

"This week, CWB CEO Greg Arason said in a news release, “if we are faced with a 17-percent tariff disadvantage to the Americans, [Peruvian wheat buyers] have told us that it will be impossible to ignore a cost difference of roughly $45 per tonne of grain.” The fact is Canadian wheat currently faces the same tariff barriers as U.S. wheat, yet Peru and Colombia are buying a lot more of it. Why? The export state trading enterprise offers below-market prices and quality deals that Canadian growers end up subsidizing via lower returns to their price pool. As a monopoly, CWB is able to buy market share with someone else's money."

If my grain is to buy market share... I need to know about it, approve or disapprove... and decide if it is a reasonable action.

I want to see a real and valid reason why I should be involved in price discounting... and quality overdelivery... and know a long term relationship I can count on is being built.

Is this the reason and logic behind CWB marketing?

Take Hard white wheat. The CWB price discounts it into markets that cannot pay or use the high quality... and don't sell it into high end US type markets where it might partially decrease CWRS sales.

It is very frustrating seeing PPO's still not being used by CWB Directors... they still don't get it.

We could do SO much better... but protecting and living in the past... often stops real and needed change to build a prosperous future.

Imagine...CWB Managers are like a 2500lb bull raceing while facing/running backwards... with our competitors running/facing forward... leading the CWB bull by the tail... and telling them where they should go.

THink about malt barley for one second... isn't this is exactly what happened?

Benny Benny Benny... hindsight is 20/20... IF we learn the lessons it can teach us!

[BennyHin]

AdamSmith: What was the non-board feed wheat price off-the-combine last August?

[BennyHin]

Frisco/chaff: give me a break. It is standard speaking notes from the WCWGA, Frontier Policy, WCBGA, etc, that the CWB inhibits farmers from the ability to deliver all their grains off the combine.

(I think you are spending to much time "alone" in the hog barns).

By the way your spelling is fantastic, but your grammar needs work.

PS
I don't have time to edit my posts, unlike you who surely cuts and pastes every posting into MS-WORD, perform a thorough spell check, then upload it back to the website, then adds HTML coding for bold and italic fonts, center-aligns the text, blah blah.

More sizzle than steak.

You know the old saying, ..."Idle Hands Are The Devil's Tools" ... Perhaps you can find something more productive to do between the hours of 8:00a 6:00 pm?

[TOM4CWB]

Benny,

Did you know that supplying my customer the produce they need... when they need it... is more important than the price paid the day I deliver?

Basis is a much more important factor... and often August deliveries of off board wheat and barley have good basis levels we have found!

It is very easy to buy my grain back on paper... IF I believe the price offered at the time of delivery was too low!

[Fransisco]

Tsk, tsk, Benny you just can't get it right.

It's the fact that you can't sell,pre-price,deliver 'anything' off the combine under the current CWB system. No one has ever said anything about selling your bins as you allege.

By the way, judging from your posting it's not a question of sizzle vs steak it's more like opening a can of Klick or starving.

Keep trying though, one of these days you may actually make something up that someone will believe.

[TOM4CWB]

Fransisco,

Benny gets his speaking notes from the CWB... no doubt the folks down at 423 can throw this interpretation forward... any bunch of folks who believe the CWB has a monopoly on wheat and barley sales... these folks can distort and justify virtually any distorted notion that they believe might sway the gullable and uninformed.

I was in big trouble for making CWB "Speaking Notes" Public... as was the CWB Director who sent them to me!

Imagine this... CWB Speaking Notes... are top sneakrit! (Ritterized)

[Fransisco]

I wish they were actually kept secret, then we wouldn't ever have to hear or read the nonsense.

[BennyHin]

WD9: You said: "...Then buy some Behlen bins at $1 / bushel and save 50% over your apparent estimate..."


Where can I purchase a 25,000 bu unstiffened, aerated grain bin for $1.00/bu that includes the cost of a concrete foundation and pad plus a 10 hp aeration fan and temperature sensors?

If you selling, I'm buying!