Market Predictions for 2007-08

[BennyHin]

Tom4CWB:

Since you are the expert, please tell us when we should sell our green and yellow peas, feed peas, canaryseed, yellow mustard, oriental mustard, and feed barley in the 2007-08 crop year. It seems obvious from your previous posts that you have the ability to pick the top of the market cycles.

By the way, what is your average selling price for peas and canola this past crop year?

[wd9]

Too lazy to do your own research and work?

[parsley]

Tom,

Rather than having to create a PDF for each of Benny's requests: green and yellow peas,feed peas, canaryseed, yellow mustard,oriental mustard, and feed barley plus his request for "your average selling price for peas and canola this past crop year", may I make a suggestion?

Tell BennyHinn to go to:

http://www.webercommodities.com/

Benny can subscribe to Weber's newsletter. We recieive it every day, and it will provide him with the statistical data he is looking for.

And rather than Benny accessing just your personal data Tom, (which could prove to be disconcerting for Benny), the charts Weber provides are often a comprehensive world glimpse.

Parsley

[TOM4CWB]

Parsley & WD9,

Thanks for helping me out... it is appreciated... and both of your ideas are good ones!

To Benny;

I can no more predict the top of the grain markets... than I can pick the maximum tempature this summer... and when it will happen.

Therefore... Benny; do the same with price and market forecasts as you would treat weather forcasts for this summer and fall!

Have a look at both weather and market forecasts... look at local and international information. Determine your break even price/bu for this year... and from the weather information what your yield will likely be.

If you can see the end of seeding in a normal manner... then:

What volume of grain will you normally grow... with a 90% probability... after reviewing the long term weather forcasts 60% of this produce if prices give a profit that is reasonable... which they have been in the last few weeks... I sure hope you did your market research and planted yellow peas!

Find a reputable company to sell your produce to... that you can trust... and discuss with them a contingency plant to sell the rest of your likely production... as you reach this high probability that you will have it to sell... and incorporate an Act of AGod clause wherever possible!

Happy marketing... this 07-08 crop year looks to have a high probability of being a profitable one... very likely one of the best in the past decade!

Now... plan on helping the charities in your community... from the first fruits of your produce... pray for wisdom... ask your better half for her advice... and read at least 1 chapter of Proverbs each day...

If you do All the above Benny... you will have at least tripled the probability of having one of your best years ever from your farm!

God Bless you... and your farm, family, and community!

[Burbert]

Another great year, all due to your exceptional marketing skills. Lets see, fuel price, fertilizer prices, machinery prices, energy prices all WAYYYYY up. Grain, up a bit. Weather is co-operating, dry warm, corner to corner seeding going on all around. Barley just starting to tank. Canola as usual promises to be great, off shore competition palm oil building. Amerikins have apparently planted a HUGE corn crop. Brazil is a factor to consider, soybean in large numbers, three crops per year. Peas, yes, peas, high prices, the only way to go, grow, lots and lots and lots of peas, watch that price plummet. Got to get a couple of brokers, to take over cause I can't keep up, experts in the field, really make some coin this year. Maltys will soon be groveling at the door for our barley, soon can't wait. So glad to be in farming, I could just bust. Alberta Barley Commission standing on guard for you and me, win, win, win. Alberta Ag recommending raising racing pigeons this year, better get on that one early, huge money there!! No Summer vacation again can't afford it, what is that now, haven't had a holiday in 7 - 8 years, a F*** it, live to work, work to live. Maybe go to the lake and fish once or twice, mooch off vacationing city friends, telling them about life on the farm.

[rodb]

Burbert

It is good to vent once in a while but maybe you should consider a different occupation before it gives you a coronary.

[sawfly]

I can just see barley tanking, and expect to see canola lose 1$/bushell by harvest.
wheat might be the sleeper, im sure acres are down 30 %
peas there were lots seeded, unless we get bad drought , there dropping too

so i locked in as much canola and peas as i dare , about 50%,
locked some wheat , not as much as id like.about 10%. my starting price may have been my high. hope not"

my prediction is whats down is going up and whats up is going down.

the only good differance this year is that we can lock in enough at a decent price, to pay the bills and eat.

So this fall when they try and steal your grains and oilseeds, we can tell them to take a hike.

cough up or your not getting it

[TOM4CWB]

Burbert,

"When pride comes, then comes disgrace, but with humility comes wisdom."

" A generous man will prosper;
he who refreshes others will himself be refreshed."

"He who seeks good finds goodwill,
but evil comes to him who searches for it."

"A heart at peace gives life to the body,
but envy rots the bones."

[carebear300]

Thanks for sharing these words of wisdom. They are sooooooo true. Good seeding everybody and good luck marketing, six months from now everyone will be able to see who was right and who was wrong. Now am back to fixing my air drill. Stay safe everybody!!!!!

[parsley]

Market predictions?

More consumers will be examining what they are eating.

smalldeadanimals.com gives the heads up to:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/19/world/americas/19panama.html?ex=1337313600&en=af8008b40fc49ed1&ei =5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

Parsley

[kamichel]

I can remember last time Canola was this high for new crop the price stayed high and got higher.
IF I remember correctly for the peas last time we had contracts like this they tanked after the crop come off.
Looks to me demand for Canola should be strong as bean acres are down, and Canola has a more healthy profile, ADM is crushing is USA. China crop is questionable. CWB new crop prices don't take into account handling, rail, cleaning increases.
Freight rates will rise, Dollar looks to rise, rail strikes still a problem along with port workers etc could damage agriculture. I will have to make a relationship with my new JRI owned ellevator.

[BennyHin]

Tom:

The weather as you stated is unpredictable, but there are marketing tools that I can use to hedge against adversity, to maximiSe my returns. Oh, yes there are weather derivatives offered on some exchanges, but the liquidity and costs to use these are not feasible in my opinion.

Come on Tom, when should we sell our grain? Also please tell us how all of us can sell 100% of our production Off-the-combine" at reasonable returns, because I hate building bins at $2/bu.

[wd9]

Then buy some Behlen bins at $1 / bushel and save 50% over your apparent estimate. It's easy if you try.

[Fransisco]

You all are missing the point.

Benny has pulled the old bait and switch here. As a die hard CWB supporter he is not actually interested in maximizing returns, getting the most out of the market, or selling at the highs.

The cwb philosophy is buy low, sell lower, blame the feds, and ask for a handout, ala the current malt barley boondoggle.

He is not actually interested in using any of the hedgingpricing tools out there, that is not the cwb way.

Benny no doubt has a 'contingency fund' that he has saved up over the years so as not to have to bother with those pesky futures markets and all of those evil speculators and multinationals. That is the cwb way.

Come on people, Benny is about as much interested in beating the market as Paris Hilton is at reclaiming her virginity.

Why are you letting him wind you up like this?

[chaffmeister]

Maybe this is a topic for another thread but BennyHin brought it up with:

<i>please tell us how all of us can sell 100% of our production Off-the-combine" at reasonable returns, because I hate building bins at $2/bu.</i>

I see an unfortunate problem with some fairly typical farm marketing described in Benny’s idea. Most farmers don’t see the benefit of storing grain when the market is signaling you to do just that.

For example, right now the canola futures market is showing a spread between Nov and May futures of $18.40 per tonne. This means that right now you can sell canola for spring delivery at a premium of about 42 cents/bu over the “off-the-combine” price. And this doesn’t even include any basis appreciation. Often the basis strengthens from harvest time to spring as well. If the basis for “off-the-combine” deliveries is historically weak, this would be a further signal to sell for spring delivery and store it.

I’ve seen as much as a buck-a-bushel to be gained by selling in the fall for spring delivery and storing it. Even so, let’s assume you can get 50 cents – not far off the 42 cents the futures are showing right now. At BennyHin's $2.00/bushel cost, building storage (if you don’t have it already) could give you a 4-year payback on your investment. Using wd9’s numbers of $1.00/bushel means a 2-year payback. In investment terms, that's remarkably good (50% return on investment).

So if you’re looking to forward sell some canola now, consider your delivery period options.

I also checked feed wheat and barley – futures show 27 cents and 34 cents per bu gains for deferred delivery.

PLEASE NOTE – this “strategy” does not say to wait until spring to sell. The “market” is willing to pay you to store but to lock in those “storage premiums” you need to SELL for deferred delivery when the market is showing it – either sell futures first then the cash or just sell cash. Carrying charge markets tend not to earn their carry – which means that the storage premium erodes over time. Waiting to sell is a crap shoot. Selling for delivery when the market is telling you to is smart marketing.

So to BennyHin – I suggest you take a hard look at the benefits of storing grain. There can be substantial gains in it if you spend some time to market properly – responding to market signals.

And Benny, before you make the assumption - no, I'm not a broker.