Market Predictions for 2007-08

[TOM4CWB]

Chaffmeister,

Simple observation:

CWB grains seldom earn this significant fall to spring carry... "large" producers can't take advantage of the many CWB delivery quirks...

that allow early delivery to low volume/growers selling product to the CWB.

[Burbert]

Tom4cwb, Excellent point that you just made Tom, after all this is really about the big boys isn't it? The rest of us can go jump in the lake, right? No wait I read somewhere, someone once said the meek shall inherit the earth. You duds are basically doomed, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.........

[wd9]

Chaff, it is important Benny dumps all his production at harvest so the rest of us can enjoy good storage premiums. Absolutely the canola market is paying to store old crop to sell in new crop year and be paid to store. The last western producer had Behlen specials at around a buck a buchel - some less - and with the CCA tax savings even less again, it is financially a good decision.

So yes, Benny, please oh please sell all your old crop immediately and the second you harvest it, sell and deliver that too. Even better do a storage ticket and price it the last day when the price is at the absolute bottom!

This will be best for storage premiums for me to pay off those bins in a year and a half.

[BennyHin]

Who is Paris Hilton? A farm economist? Leader of the WCWGA?

[BennyHin]

Frisco, you are way off base. I just asked Tom for his hind site marketing up front for this year.

By the way, I see the NDP'rs won in your province again. What will happen with your pig barns now that the NDP have a solid mandate to clean up the environment in your province?


God Bless Tom.

[BennyHin]

Chaff-Frisco: I have lots of bins, enough to store 90% of my production. I usually store my canola until the Jan - May rallies. Usually sell mustard in the spring time, store canaryseed for 5 years waiting for 25 cents/lbs,....etc

But you "market choicers" are always reminding ALL of us that without the CWB we wouldnt need bins as we would have the freedom to sell all our grain of-the-combine in August.

Please tell us what are basis levels would be, and how many railcars/week we would need to ship all our production to port in August. Oh, I forgot, once the CWB is gone, we will ship all our wheat to value added flour mills in our local neighborhoods that will pay us $10/bu fob farm (as Parsley likes to say), and any surplus will be shipped via trucks to the USA.

Yeh hah, I can just here the welcoming wagons awaiting our arrival.

[chaffmeister]

BennyHin:
What are you smokin'? Whatever it is, I gotta get me some.

Don't think any "Market choicers" have said you can sell all of your grain off the combine. Now if you WANT to, that's OK. That's the whole idea of choice. If you were actually listening, you would know that the message is that you have the freedom (choice) to do what is right for you and your farm operation. For you, that appears to be storing grain, waiting for rallies.

[Fransisco]

Benny, 'hind site'? I believe you mean -hind sight-.

And what the heck is "...hind site marketing up front for this year." supposed to mean anyways? Hind sight is based on after the fact assessments not speculations into the future. Talk about a walking contradiction.

"Please tell us what 'are' basis levels would be" I believe you mean -our- basis levels.

You want to know who is off base, it is you Benny with your snide and ridiculous questions for Tom. He has never claimed that he could pick the top's, just that he can do a better job for himself than the CWB. There is a difference and you certainly don't have to pick the tops to do it. And what he sold his crop for last year quite frankly is none of your business.

I don't know what it is with you monopolists, but you just can't seem to get the idea that those of us who want to sell our own crops are not interested in selling yours.

But if you need the government to hold your hand when dealing with all those supposedly evil grain merchants out there that's fine go ahead, just leave us out of it.

[parsley]

chaff, be patient.

There are still guys in East Berlin that line up outside the bakery every morning so they can buy a loaf of bread. And wait.


The rest of the customers walk by them, shake their heads, open the door, buy their bread and go home.

The old angus heads for the same stall every time.

Parsley

[AdamSmith]

Benny, You and Burbert must enjoy being bitter all the time or are you guys just sore losers?

Past experience has shown me (that would be Hindsight) that delivering off board feed wheat and barley right off the combine always gave better returns than delivering to the cwb, always.

The message you should have picking up from farmers wanting to deliver off the combine was that under the cwb system, generating cash flow, post harvest from cwb wheat or cwb barley was completely inadequate for today's world of high cost farming, and also that there was zero financial advantage to any grower to store wheat or barley, because if the price you receive in May is no difference than the price you would have gotten the previous Sept., what incentive is there to store grain?

Under the open market those opportunities will still exist (for harvest delivery)but the market will, if the conditions dictate, reward growers for storing as well. There may be times when the market becomes "INVERTED", that's when the front month price is at a premium to the defferds and not to be confused with the cwb bod's combined IQ.

The signals the market is sending today, is to store grain, next year it may be the opposite. Either way the market will adjust and as a grower, you will do well if you pay attention and react accordingly. But as others have said that's your choice and responsibility.

[TOM4CWB]

Benny,

I think what bugs me more than anything... is that "single minded" folks ignore the obvious.

The CWB continues to sell all grain through Pool accounts (including PPO grain)... masking real and needed market signals.

Here is an obvious example of CWB logic... as to why this must continue:

"This week, CWB CEO Greg Arason said in a news release, “if we are faced with a 17-percent tariff disadvantage to the Americans, [Peruvian wheat buyers] have told us that it will be impossible to ignore a cost difference of roughly $45 per tonne of grain.” The fact is Canadian wheat currently faces the same tariff barriers as U.S. wheat, yet Peru and Colombia are buying a lot more of it. Why? The export state trading enterprise offers below-market prices and quality deals that Canadian growers end up subsidizing via lower returns to their price pool. As a monopoly, CWB is able to buy market share with someone else's money."

If my grain is to buy market share... I need to know about it, approve or disapprove... and decide if it is a reasonable action.

I want to see a real and valid reason why I should be involved in price discounting... and quality overdelivery... and know a long term relationship I can count on is being built.

Is this the reason and logic behind CWB marketing?

Take Hard white wheat. The CWB price discounts it into markets that cannot pay or use the high quality... and don't sell it into high end US type markets where it might partially decrease CWRS sales.

It is very frustrating seeing PPO's still not being used by CWB Directors... they still don't get it.

We could do SO much better... but protecting and living in the past... often stops real and needed change to build a prosperous future.

Imagine...CWB Managers are like a 2500lb bull raceing while facing/running backwards... with our competitors running/facing forward... leading the CWB bull by the tail... and telling them where they should go.

THink about malt barley for one second... isn't this is exactly what happened?

Benny Benny Benny... hindsight is 20/20... IF we learn the lessons it can teach us!

[BennyHin]

AdamSmith: What was the non-board feed wheat price off-the-combine last August?

[BennyHin]

Frisco/chaff: give me a break. It is standard speaking notes from the WCWGA, Frontier Policy, WCBGA, etc, that the CWB inhibits farmers from the ability to deliver all their grains off the combine.

(I think you are spending to much time "alone" in the hog barns).

By the way your spelling is fantastic, but your grammar needs work.

PS
I don't have time to edit my posts, unlike you who surely cuts and pastes every posting into MS-WORD, perform a thorough spell check, then upload it back to the website, then adds HTML coding for bold and italic fonts, center-aligns the text, blah blah.

More sizzle than steak.

You know the old saying, ..."Idle Hands Are The Devil's Tools" ... Perhaps you can find something more productive to do between the hours of 8:00a 6:00 pm?

[TOM4CWB]

Benny,

Did you know that supplying my customer the produce they need... when they need it... is more important than the price paid the day I deliver?

Basis is a much more important factor... and often August deliveries of off board wheat and barley have good basis levels we have found!

It is very easy to buy my grain back on paper... IF I believe the price offered at the time of delivery was too low!

[Fransisco]

Tsk, tsk, Benny you just can't get it right.

It's the fact that you can't sell,pre-price,deliver 'anything' off the combine under the current CWB system. No one has ever said anything about selling your bins as you allege.

By the way, judging from your posting it's not a question of sizzle vs steak it's more like opening a can of Klick or starving.

Keep trying though, one of these days you may actually make something up that someone will believe.