what about export feed barley

[just_wondering]

Most threads on this site have focused on malt but what about feed?
I was reading an artical last night in the Cattlemans magazine about market predictions for export feed barley and that the Saudi's are not the only game in town. I don't have the artical in front of me but they predicted feed prices much than last years and more used, as corn is so relitivly expensive world wide
What are others thoughts. I'll try and quote more from the artical later but for now I'm enjoying the rain.

[Burbert]

Apparently the system will be, you sell it on the open market to a grain company or whomever, they do whatever they want with it. Guess they'll sell to the highest bidder and arrange to supply it all the way to Arabia or Japan, or where ever. Every man for himself now, you and me and our PC, the world is our oyster. We have trashed our delivery system, railways can charge what they want, I guess. Wow what a system we've created, no system, thats apparently a huge step forward according to the Alberta Gov't. Its called win win, can't sell aboard, sell to your local neighbourhood feeder, value added after all that is what it is about. Isn't it?

[Ron]

I had high hopes for feed barley but with the late spring here there is going to be a huge increase in barley acres.
That said, with corn over $3.00 what should barley be? Does anybody know the historical spread between feed barley and corn? Now that we can(?) deliver into the US feed market will this keep the barley market from collapsing this fall?

[rodb]

I was told the other day that the spread was about $.34 between corn and barley so we should be able to hold Barley in a decent range depending on when global warming kicks in and gets things growing. It is 6 degrees at 12:30 and the wind feels like it is blowing off a glacier.

[just_wondering]

Back to my own computer and some highlights from the article
How will barley repond to marketing choice? in the may 07 issue of cattlemen magazine.
this quotes economist Lynn Malmberg from Strathmore Alberta
his thoughts
More malt varieties seeded.
Does not see canadian maltsers buying more canadian malt than last year, Capacity issues
room for exports price would be same as domestic possibly slight premium
His real question is what it does to feed barley? talks of linear formulation of rations on how to make barley work if thats cheaper than corn. talk of how easy it would be to pull another million tonnes from canada for export.

"Its clear that over the years the CWB system has made feed grains cheaper because they limited exportsand managed market volumswhich tended to put pressures on price. Unless unless we can offset that through higher yeilding malt varieties and/or way more acres seeded to barleythe price will be higher not lower this year" Malmberg figures.

[winwin]

Mr malmberg is right-the cwb was like a dam on exports.It maintained asurplus inside the country.

And we were all damned as long as we had it.