July 07 Canola

[AdamSmith]

I have 170t of Canola unpriced on a $15 under July basis, contract, I have lifted my finger to the trigger today but am not ready to pull it just yet.

As a chart watcher if the market closes near or above the current price of $393, this will confirm a flag formation which would indicate a move at least to the contract high of $404.7 or could indicate a half way point for the bull move $390 - $357 = $33/t so $390 plus $33 = $423/t target for July.

Any other opinions about the July 07 Canola chart?

[Zaphod]

On the weekly nearby chart, next resistance is at $395. If it gets through there, $420 is the next objective.

[melvill]

Just curious AdamSmith. When is your deadline to price? I have some clients that have until June 15 and other that have until the end of June.

[AdamSmith]

My deadline is June 22.

[melvill]

Here's my take. I'd put next resistances at about 397/398 and then at the two closes at 401 on Feb 2 and 3. RSI moving into oversold territory but not as far in as the late Nov territory so that's something to watch. MACD showing no signs of rolling over but the difference is starting to get fairly high. Trouble is there are two other things in here we need to watch: the Canuck Buck and soyoil futures and both have been on a looooooooon rally!

[AdamSmith]

Melvill, do you look for two closes above a resistance level, in order to signal a confirmation of a breakout?

[AdamSmith]

July closed today at 389.9 up 1.5.

no breakout up, but it didn't close lower either, Soooo, I'll stand pat and wait for eith a confirmation of either a breakout or a top.

Wheat had quite wild close, July Minny close near it's high of the day up 8 1/2 cents, when it was down a few cents just a half hour befor the close.

I also still have CWB July basis contracts to price.

Same story as Canola, were into the high end of the contract price range, but is it going to breakout higher or are we putting in a top?

What are others thoughts on July Minny Wheat?

Mamma needs a new pair of shoes!

[melvill]

You know AS I don't claim to be an expert on technical analysis. To be that I'd have had to been studying it for 25 or more years. But, yes, I like to see two closes above resistance or two below support. Three in both cases is even better.

[SASKFARMER3]

We just signed a 1200 ton contract for july pricing by end of june for 17 Basis but I have to haul 3 miles to deliver.

[kamichel]

What the heck were you waiting for???
You did good.
Do you need a CWB job? I will vote for you.

[crusher]

If canola hits some of these targets mentioned, it may not stay there for very long. I would put your GPO's in now. Might want to split up the quantity. My AU basis expires June 15, so there may be some selling pressure around that date. I guess I should probably make a marketing plan too. I hear close to $9 around Edmonton spot. Nov was $20 over July but has narrowed in lately. Could be an opportunity to sell the cash and replace with November if the rally is still going for another 2 weeks.

Any good spring 2008 basis anywhere? May 08 $424 less $15= $409 or $9.28/bu - not bad! Now I just have to grow it.

[SASKFARMER3]

Karm I did one sale on Jans top day for first part of our canola 1000 tons, used the advance on intrest free part and waited for basis.

[kamichel]

I find it difficult to look at charts to predict where the next trend will be. I suppose I am not alone. This is one time the acreage reports will be working in the farmers favour as I think much more canola will be planted than shown in the reports.
A trending up dollar will pressure Canola down. Lots of Canola will get planted over the weekend, people that are not done here some are working around the clock. Some are even planting extra canola because of the price. Moisture is plentiful most places.
I plan to pull the trigger and not let go till half my expected production is sold. 3/4 Dec. 1/8 april 1/8 june.

[cropduster]

For the late canola seeders, check out some of the Omex products for hastening/evening maturity.Will be running some thru the plane this year.With these prices it certainly could be beneficial,but am NOT an expert.

[crusher]

I priced my July contracts today at $396, on the daily charts looks like an area of resistance above this level. Still have my last 20% to go.