Minister Strahl; Barley GOC change approved for Aug 1 07

[Fransisco]

It's too bad we can't capture that 40 cents on wheat the way we will be able to on barley.

Quoted price for spring wheat DNS 14 at Bottineau, North Dakota at Alton Grain Terminal (south of Brandon, MB)
for Oct 31 delivery...Cdn $5.68/bu.

The CWB's FPC for 1 CWRS 13.5,
minus deductions to southern Manitoba...$4.76/bu.

As of today the board is costing farmers 92 cents a bushel on their spring wheat, more if you compare it to the pool.

But you keep right on spinning those fantasies agstar.

[AdamSmith]

Yeah wheat is up 40 cents, in Minny and KC, but it's up less than 3 cents in wpg where the contract is domestic only. No arbitage there.

Strahl's announcment meant barley can now arbitrage and trade freely to discover the real value.

Agstar, I noticed you used the word "fault",

as in "big mistake",

or as in "caused harm"

when describing a fourty cent rally in wheat.

Very telling indeed!

Only a cwb director control freak use negative words to describe a wheat price rally.

[chaffmeister]

Agstar77 - why compare barley to wheat? The most reasonable comparison is to corn.

On March 28th, the day the barley plebiscite results were announced, the spread between CBOT corn futures and WCE barley futures were (adjusted to CD/tonne) $8.35 (corn under barley).

Today, basis the close, that same spread is $34.19 (corn under barley).

Since the plebiscite results were announced, barley has gained on corn to the tune of C$25.84/tonne (56 cents per bu).

And from what I see, a good chunk of that is likely Strahl's "fault".

Wonder where prices would be if our "friends" had announced yesterday that, although they considered it, they would NOT be mounting a court challenge???? (We still have offshore barley buyers reluctant to step into Canada because of the uncertainty.)

Only in Canada, eh? Pity.

[Fransisco]

Looks like as of today's close we're losing over a buck a bushel now.

Bang up job there agstar, keep showing us how you can apply all that muscle to the marketplace.

Check it out[URL="http://www.siemenssays.com/"]here.[/URL]

[craig]

In my neck of the woods where we have been drowning for the last Month many producers were forced into growing barley because that was the only thing left with early enough maturity. Many of these producers have acres not seeded and numerous wet spots they just left because they had no choice. I looked at the situation and hedged barley because big acres were likely going to drive the price down. Low and behold the market is going the other way and I'm hearing prices quoted for feed we have no seen for years. So to those supposed friends of the wheat board. How can you challenge a change to a system that offers opportunity to producers who are in a high risk situation? It is fine to fight battles on principle but in this particular case you are working to deny producers of the right to make some reasonable returns producing barley. Quit talking about where we will be in 5 years. If the open market was ripe for the picking we would have already seen the multinationals take over the canola and pulse industry.

[FarmRanger]

When you consider the increase in the value of the Canadian dollar dampening grain prices in Canada, the spread is even more than what chaff is saying. The January 2006 Canadian dollar was around the 86 cent range, now its around 94 cents, which means that Canadian commodity prices are about 9% lower than they would be if our currency was still at January values.

CWB premium.......my ***

[Burbert]

Lets try to figure out how to tear down, some of those big cement elevators. Hence the price of barley, will then skyrocket, event though everybody and his dog are growing it this year. Yup no doubt about it, lets destroy the system and watch prices climb even higher. I'm heady just thinking about how much we will get in the future. Screw the broker, let them go broke, lets lock up the bins, let them go hungry and thirsty yeah, anarchy thats the only way to win, confusion, chaos, wreck the whole system, stop the trains on their tracks, price is bound to go up,up, way up. Bring on global warming, we'll gro some pineapples next year! Ab Ag & Barley Commiss to the rescue. Pony oats for race horses, thats the best, right Ralf?

[Burbert]

good comments Agstar
ADM controls the wheat milling market in Canada and is the CWB's favorite buyer in that market. With the CWB controled prices it maintains a high profit margin for them yet not not allowing the farmer any choice to increase his/hers returns. SO to say they won't re entering more of Canada's grain handling business in the future is up for debate, perhaps once we show them there is value in it they will. Choice marketing does that, opens avenues of opportunites. Apparently their relationship with AU showed no profitability on the grain handling side (they could not access all their milling wheat requirments from AU due to the CWB restictions or other growth). Due to the restictions of the CWB monoploy during their stint with AU they apparent saw no value in expansion or else they would have done something.
Or like you are suggesting they are preparing for the evolution of the CWB to access the quality product we grow for their needs.
Then re-enter the market, and if Newco (what ever SWP is called), is availiable then why not buy it? Called free enterprise, if farmers want to control their destiny they can.
And they can if the CWB allows farmers to actually own part of it, in an open comercially based market environment , not a government controled monopoly.
Lets look at farmer investment in Canadian agriculture, those farmers that had equity converted in to shares in SWP saw it drindle down to next to nothing, yet those that had shares in AU saw a return on their investment from an average of $8.00 to grow to $20.50/share.
Am I happy I sold for $20.50? personally I wanted AU to continue, and not be bought out, but then again farmers had the choice, if they wanted to maintain a farmer owned Canadian grain company they would have.
Yet SWP paid me $20.50 CASH, no SWP shares/cash deal, unhappy with the demise of AU, yet I got the cash, now its up to to SWP to make sure their share holders get the return they are expecting.
Erik

[SASKFARMER3]

Wheat is going to be the sleeper crop of 2007. Every one dropped it in their rotation in our area. OK I still have 3000 acres but hey that's just me. Now with this useless CWB in place I will loose roughly $110,000.00 for staying in the CWB zone.
Maybe my true identity will come out later this year when I load up about 20 Super B's and Cross the 49th on a day trip.
Chuck ain't going to put me in Jail like Ralph would have or Mr Calvert and his friend Ontario Jack.
Simply farmers for years in Canada have been taken advantaged of by Liberals and NDP with lack of direction and policy. The Useless CWB served only the suppliers and their workers and Liberal appointee's.
105 days till trip to USA and counting.

[SASKFARMER3]

Typing to fast not suppliers but buyers.
Oh Ralph and his boys get me so mad.
But hey Dion as leader does help the day go buy a lot easier.
What a looser.