Vertical Wheat

[Zaphod]

Did anybody notice that the CWB took another couple of dollars off the basis this week? Usually they wait for the PROs, but I guess they figured everyone would be so happy with the spike in futures, that they wouldn't notice a little extra slippage in the FPC.

[kamichel]

Beans and soyoil took the jump today.
Grain company reps keep telling me canola is overpriced compared to soybeans. I am thinking they are full of it, look at the soyoil chart.

[malleefarmer]

Apology from me too cp your a man of vision.
Question is then should we locking in 08 and 09 as well when the market starts to look toppy.
From what ive learnt on agriville you guys grow more barley than wheat but wouldnt you think the world will basically plant wall to wall wheat where they cant plant corn ie australia.

Geez i hope it dries out for you guys some time soon not really a problem we ever face down under

[kamichel]

Having a faulty phone just cost me a couple thousand dollars today. Any men of vision that priced in the last few days before the big vertical down today. Mallee seems not much drying going on here the last couple days. Now I have some drowned out spots and will have to dig ruts with the sprayer. My crop is still on steroids compared to last years over wet conditions but things could change in a hurry.

[cottonpicken]

I know guys that started shorting a few days ago,wish i could brag that i did but i didnt.

Malle,my personal opinion is that we will trend upward for a few more months and then have a blow off spike and then a moderate pull back,After that we'll have sideways trade for a significant amount of time.I anticipate it to look like the crude oil chart.

My greatest fear is this last rally was the blow off spike but a comparitive timeline to the other commodities that have already "ran" would suggest otherwise.As far as selling,a general rule i to sell into the uptrend.

[malleefarmer]

Cottonpicken was it in 1996?? that wheat touched 7.00 and fell in a spectaular fashion like $2 or $3 a bushel in a matter of months, which i guess is the scenario your trying to illustrate.
But dont you agree we have a new average for grain prices in the short to med term ie next 4 to 7 years with ethanol every increaing consumption and not enough production?
not sure what historical cbot futures ave is lets say 3.00 that could well be in the 3.80 to 4.00 range for next few years, wheat im talking of course

[kamichel]

Mallee do you grow soft wheat that sells into the Asian noodle market? Or if you grow a different type what kind of price can you get right now and for new crop?