$200.00 Barley Futures?

[rain]

What is this abount? is it a feed price or a malt price? will we have a continental barley situation this year?

Thanks

[charliep]

Not sure your reference here. At $20 over basis delivered feedlot southern Alberta, would have a cash price of $200/tonne Feb./Mar. ($4.35/bu). Would suspect that basis levels aren't quite that good but price still well over $4/bu. Malt prices are going to have to stay high to compete with the domestic feed market.

Between waiting for Aussie crop (and expecting them to fill up the bins after their drought) and questions over eastern Europe availability, the international feedbarley market is hot right off the combine. Grain companies are taking advantage of this and this will result in good fall delivery opportunity (barley is efficient because you just deliver elevator, rail to coast , load ships, get your money). Looking forward to Burberts rant but this has to be good news for prairie farmers - deliver feed barley straight (no bin space needed) for minimum $3/bu picked up yard and up to $4/bu southern Alberta delivered feedlot.

Wouldn't be selling the farm but would be putting at least some of this opportunity in my pocket (even if just for bin space management/cash flow).

[charliep]

I would make decisions based on the assumption open market August 1. If the status quo folks rule the (10 % probability from my forecast), the CWB will have to look at innovative ways of converting existing business into contracts they can live with. Impact on the market short term will be devistating otherwise. People have long memories that will carry over into wheat.

[Burbert]

Get real duds, the reason the barley prices have risen, is because there was a very SMALL barley crop produced last year. Contrary to your onions, it is not cause you guys are brilliant marketeers, or beacause you have curbed the CWB evil policy makers or planners. By the By, I hear that they may still be in the barley business. The more markets the better. Can't wait!!!!!

[charliep]

We finally agree. Western farmers cut back on because acres they couldn't make money growing the crop. Throw in an Aussie drought and the ethanol impact on corn and things got interesting price wise. The CWB system (feed barley and malt) could not compete on price (note feed barley "A" pool of a buck a bushel just got mailed out this week) and has not been a factor in the market as farmers made logical business decisions to sell to the best priced market. I also agree whatever the outcome this summer, things have changed. More competition and innovation has to happen in the barley market. I look forward to your participation in this process.

[Burbert]

Maybe the CWB can run with the barley bulls after all. Time will tell, I guess!!

[malleefarmer]

feed barley traded as high as $220 of the combine nov/dec delivery last week here in austbut the heat has come out of the market a little

[rain]

Sept Barley bids Standard AB last week $172.50/MT FOB Bin