Wanna take a ride?

[malleefarmer]

Lookout everyone when tonights markets open. It's going to be ugly!!

[rain]

wha happened snappy? Rain somewhere?

[rain]

Yeah. I'm actually suprised everything is hanging in there at the open tonight. The midwest had adequate rains this weekend, and the states that are harvesting wheat right now missed the rain. Hopefully they all hang in there in the morning.

[rain]

Yeah. I'm actually suprised everything is hanging in there at the open tonight. The midwest had adequate rains this weekend, and the states that are harvesting wheat right now missed the rain. Hopefully they all hang in there in the morning.

[TOM4CWB]

Snappy,

This off US Wheat Associates June 22 market report:

"Wheat futures were on a roller coaster this week. Markets fell early in the week, taking a rest after the run-up last week. Chicago nearbys closed Tuesday down 26 cents/bu from Friday. Wednesday morning strong thunderstorms rolling through Oklahoma and Kansas pushed markets back to Friday's levels. Thursday, news of a 160,000 MT HRS export sale shifted market focus to new crop protein, driving Minneapolis futures up 15 cents on intermarket spreads. Forecasts for beneficial weather globally - EU/U.S./Canada drying out, rains in the Southern Hemisphere - sent prices down today as markets expect clarity on the yield and quality of the HRW harvest by the middle of next week.
From last week, CBOT July futures fell 14 cents/bu and the KCBT is down 26 cents/bu while the MGE was up 14 cents/bu. Corn futures were down 52 cents/bu from last week. Since the beginning of the rally 5 weeks ago SRW futures are up $1.04/bu ($38/MT), HRW $1.00 cents/bu ($37/MT) and HRS $1.21 cents/bu ($44/MT).
Trader comments on the HRW harvest and today's Kansas Wheat Harvest Report confirm a highly variable quality and yield as the harvest is just getting underway. The USDA Crop Progress Report shows that only 2% of the Kansan crop has been harvested, compared to the 19% average - and 48% last season. The harvest in Oklahoma is reportedly about 70% complete with very limited pockets of good quality.
HRW protein scales are currently difficult to define as new crop quality remains unclear. Premiums for high protein grain are at the upper end of trader quotes.
The U.S. Commercial Sales Report showed 541,000 MT of sales compared to trade estimates of 150,000 to 350,000 MT.
SRW basis shot up 15 cents/bu this week as traders tried to position grain for the 300,000 MT Moroccan tender and other business. Morocco withdrew that tender for the second time as the government still hasn't decided on specifics regarding import duties.
The HRS regional Crop Progress Report rates crop and weather conditions as generally excellent in the Northern Plains.
SW and SRW FOB prices were unchanged from last week, leaving the SW premium over SRW at $8/MT (23 cents/bu) from $25/MT just two weeks ago. With beneficial forecast for corn, CBOT corn futures lost ground to HRW this week. HRW futures at a $2.03/bu ($75/MT) premium to corn, up from $1.77/bu ($65/MT) last week.
Like wheat, ocean freight rates are very volatile, rebounding strongly this week from last week's dip as stormy weather delays coal loading in Newcastle Australia. Port operations are slowed, as well as rail lines feeding the port facilities, further delaying vessels and thereby absorbing ocean freight capacity. Rate estimates in the Atlantic are up $3/MT and the Pacific up $5/MT."

I wonder how bearish wheat really is... those winter wheat crops are not pretty!

[TOM4CWB]

I agree, but with the volatilty in these markets the passed 3 months, I thought will all the rain, and no rain this weekend in some areas,it would send the markets tailspinning tonight.

[charliep]

Always interesting to compare expectations to reality. Today's close a little lower nearbys/higher on deferred months. Crop condition report today. Then back on the bucking bronco for more fun (maybe). Putting the thumbs up sign as always interesting to talk about markets versus the other stuff.

[furrowtickler]

The only way for traders to make money is to try to drive the market one way or the other. This year they can not, world supply for wheat is too low and production problems are too obvious to drive wheat down, although they will try. As for oilseeds I think it will be a crazy summer, this is where the money will be made/lost. STATS CAN report will have more influance than any report in recent memory on all markets.
JMO, but hrsw and canola acres will be down and barley,peas will be way up.
Rain was too spotty in the U.S. to push markets either way too far. Canadian crop conditions are far from ideal, and going backwards daily. Sunshine/heat are badly needed for at leat two weeks. Posibility of frost lingers Weds morning as well. We were lucky in our area to be done seeding by the 19th of May, but we are 5-10 days behind last year already and we were ahead of most areas this spring. Anything seeded after the 25th of may has a 50/50 chance after this cold wet weather.
I think canola acres 12.5 at best, hrsw down 20% from last year.

[kamichel]

Snappy I am thinking there is heavy selling off the combine this year as harvest is in full swing down south. Also pricing ahead is heavy here in Canada. One thing about all these sales is that the grain is moving. How much is left, should provide support. I am expecting yoyo prices daily, weekly. So far the ride is good. Good or bad we are all aboard, don't have to ask.

[cottonpicken]

Darn near limit up today.

[Burbert]

Yeah, he, he, he, ain't we farmers smart!

[Burbert]

Burbert, judging at the time of your post 6:52, just finishing that 40oz are we??

[Burbert]

snappy, Here is a suggestion for you. Change your handle too, yappy, sappy, slaphappy, crappie, or just plain simpering little pipsqueak, farm boy!