Guestimates on the Thursday PRO and Impact on CWB Basis

[melvill]

Canuck Buck is hitting us hard here. It's up roughly 8 cents since the first PRO came out in February. Argh!!!!

[charliep]

I neglected to mention that "B" series barley is up $5/tonne at $195/tonne basis west coast. This price is $3/tonne over the April 18 2 row standard select malt barley. Neither one are competitive with the local feed market.

[charliep]

Did widen the discount (refuse to call basis any more) on the fixed price contracts. December 1CWRS discount (okay I know is a plus) is 2 cents/tonne versus being $3.15 over yesterday. 1 CPS red has been weakened by $6.60/tonne (now $25.25/tonne under Dec KCBT versus $18.65 yesterday). SWS took it on the nose the hardest - weakened basis by $8.18/tonne ($22.69/tonne under Dec. CBT today versus $14.08 yesterday.

Perhaps someone can help me understand the logic of the wider basis.

[charliep]

May June 28 SWS basis should have been $22.26/tonne - I wrote down the March basis.

Also should not have called wider basis (Lee will lecture me for this error) and rather used the correct term weaker basis or better yet, bigger discount for using the program.

[lakenheath]

Charlie,

Do you know Mel Polluck (speeling could be off). He oversees the FPC at the CWB. Just had a 15 minutes discussion with him asking why the basis has moved down again and he basically talked in circles with no concrete answer.

I asked him to post the numbers used in the basis forumla that is posted on the internet to give us some insight into how the predict the movement of the basis. He said they could not do this as they would be giving out confidential numbers to their buyers.

[Incognito]

Yo quero Taco Bell. Run for the Border