USDA Stocks and Acreage Report

[charliep]

Just a note the 2007 spring seeded acreage report and the June 1 stocks were released by USDA today. Main feature was smaller than expected soybean acres. Will be an interesting trading day.

[charliep]

Here is the link for those of you who love numbers.

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.asp

[rook]

wow did Winnipeg ever like that news!

[charliep]

Glad I'm not short CBT beans. 50 cents/bu times 5,000 bu contract size. That is US $2,500 coming out of a margin account for one contract. Why I don't trade futures any more.

What becomes interesting is how someone handles a hedging accout and a rally like this. It is a difficult decision to lick your wound and liquidate in hopes the market moves higher or stay in for the ride/make the margin calls. Any comments on strategies in here?

[charliep]

I would love to know who had got burned on Corn, in the last few months?? I actually got lucky this time bought beans at yesterdays close at the money!! Good day for me today!!

[melvill]

snappy, the interesting thing will be when you pull the pin and offset your position.

What was it that the physicist Isaac Newton said about "must come done"?

[SASKFARMER3]

Was it a surprise to any one that the Soybeans were going to come in with less acres.
USDA is worse than stats Canada except their info helps the farmer. Here it helps Grain companies.
Simply I knew wheat acres were going to be down in Canada. As a US farmer you don't think they new their was a huge amount of corn going into the ground, Hell they planted it on their farm so every one else must have. So forward price all your corn before stupid USDA announcement and profit, then play with the beans for profit.
Here Stats can kills the farmer with useless old information and kills the farmer helps grain company.
One other thing that's just Pi--ing me off is so Called experts talking were approaching historic high values for wheat and Canola and farmers should pull the pin and sell.
Is Historic by how 6:00 in 1978
or 5:00 now come on.
Wasn't oil just a few years 20 and now were closing at $70.00 where is the historic high 27.
Its almost time to start turning off the Experts. Were in a world shortage coming in certain crops. Food is going to be secondary. A big financial company in the USA is putting their money in Bio Diesel watch next winter the spin on Bio Diesel the new fuel. Profit times are coming sooner than later, yes fert and chem will steal their fair share.

[charliep]

Just curious how statistics Canada helps grain companies? Will also note you called the market perfectly over the last winter with your boycott CWB crops idea a success - a lot of farmers signed up. IMHO, farmers have called the market well to date.

Went down through the posting to see how price forecasts - not a lot because drowned out by other chatter but interesting none the less. My idea is always market planning which puts as much emphasis on profitability and cash flow management as forecasting the market. Price is just theory/a faint hope until you have pulled the trigger and deposited the cheque for the entire sale price.

[cottonpicken]

What would be more impressive snappy is if you would have told us before the markets moved.

Your right about turning off the experts SK farmer they really dont understand whats going on.

[charliep]

Just a note that trading futures is not about ego. Its about making money. The successful futures traders are the quietest, most humble people I know and I might add the disciplined. Snappy is up US $2000/contract today. As Lee pointed out, the question comes to when you bank your profits. That is the tougest decisions that futures traders make.

[Burbert]

Snappy, you bought beans? Man you are a legend in your own mind. I buy a lot of beans too, when they are on sale of course!

[charliep]

Burbert

When you buy your beans cheap, do you sell them expensive?

A positive day. A little negative corn and some warning signs barley/feed wheat. Positive beans and wheat but be cautious about getting too bullish - cuurent market signals are being sent to Northern hemisphere winter wheat and southern hemisphere soybean producers. Lots of weather premium in all markets so need to see problems for a major boost in prices. Take me out more than nine months and all bets are off.