Heat on the canola

[rook]

I'm wondering how your canola crops look across the prairies. I checked some of my fields last night and the relentless heat is having an effect. Lots of blank spots on the stem and unfertilized flowers. And the pods are not the big "little finger" pods like you want to see but short Polish-type pods with small seed.

West of Edmonton and could use a rain. Its storm season but so far we've missed. To turn this into a marketing thread, if this is widespread the crop won't be as big as they think, as others have said.

[SASKFARMER3]

Bin on the road lots and yes the heat is taking its control to bad no one in their to inform that this will not be a bin buster. If heat keeps up look out.

Flower blasting and small pods.

[TOM4CWB]

Rook,

Just looked at the long range forcast.

June 29, last rain here.

July 24, still no measurable rain.

How much grain can we raise with no rain for a month?

I hope and pray we won't find out!

Seems like a big gap in the drought forcasting when they go from 7 day rainfall to 30 day reports!

[carebear300]

Five more days with no rain and a bumper will turn into a very average crop. Then watch out, keep your powder dry boys. the fireworks are about to begin. The upper limit of prices may be way higher than we had ever dreamt!!!!!!!

[charliep]

Not meaning to rain on anyones parade but I would be cautious in getting too bullish. You have to look at demand side, ability to substitute other crops and fit within world markets.

Wouldn't go into the details but core customer demand (Japanese, Mexican, US, domestic crusher) for Canadian canola is around 7.5 MMT. There are lots of other places that Canada sells canola (China, Pakistan, etc) but they are anong the more price concious markets - will switch to other cheaper oilseeds relatively quickly.

My canola production number is about 9 MMT based on average yields. I think you would have to pull Canadian canola production below 8 MMT before you will see canola being priced at major premiums to other world oilseeds. So for me the current market question is whether you can hold soybeans at these elevated levels.

Only other comment is I would rather advise someone on how to sell at $7.50/bu canola crop that yielded 40 bu/acre than a 20 bu/acre crop that sells for $10/bu.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie when you say cheaper oil what Malaysian palm oil, No its higher
European ****seed. Oh its dry their last couple of weeks
Australia real bumpers their happening.
Soybeans, Watch august,
The naysayers agree on one thing prices are at their market peak.
Yea 1978 was a good year. or 1934 etc.
Oil was once at 20 or less now it sits at 70.
One wreck and most crops are in a shortage.
Yes their is always a new crop growing some where in the world but again a few natural disasters and wham were short major.
What the whole argument was on the Canadian Canola crop and its real nice by Winnipeg etc, but the rest is average and if we get two weeks of 30-35 plus with no moisture like 4 weather services are saying I don't care how good the new varieties are this crop ain't in the bin till the fat lady sings and shes a long way from opening number.

[charliep]

If I were to be bullish oilseeds, I would look at the CBT soyoil chart.

[just_wondering]

I was at the Cargill crush plant in Clavet this week and the grader there remarked on how much canola that went into the bin good, has now heated and how he hoped farmers would remember to turn their bins if they plan on keeping old crop around or storing indefinitely.

Charlie/Lee any idea on how much crop would have lost condition over the year. this fellow sees 3000 tonns a day and remarked on it unprompted?

[wd9]

Ohaio gozaimous, o gen ki des ka?

As in, will we have at least 2 million tonnes of low chlorophyl canola for the Japanese market this year?

Arigato gozaimous, Hai.

[charliep]

I am not aware of any industry numbers on how much canola goes sample/heated.

[carebear300]

Thanks again Charlie for bringing us back to earth. But will stick my neck out and predict that there won't be too much down for the off the combine deliveries this fall. Maybe I am just too dam optimistic, new experience for me.