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Durum ? barley farmer asks?

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    Durum ? barley farmer asks?

    Just reading my morning news wires, got this report out of North Dakota, saying that their durum farmers could be instore for an excellent year. Makes reference to Canadian production, which I take they mean last years production that is completely sold out. Therefore no carry over and no worries about our potential 07/08 crop.
    As a barley farmer I was always under the impression that we had signifigant carry over of durum as the CWB refused to sell all of the years production. As a barley farmer and one that needs choice to survive, could this actually be a success story for the CWB?? perhaps if it is, then stop the fight over barley, the CWB does not work for barley, malt or feed.
    Erik
    Durum Wheat Prices Worry Local Farmers
    Hawlie Ohe KUMV
    7/18/2007

    In a state like North Dakota, where agriculture plays such a strong role on the economy, it`s important to maximize the earning potential of some of the area`s key commodities. Our region produces about 60 percent of the nation`s durum wheat supply, and when the yields are up and the prices are high, you can bet this crop is going to create a lot more than pasta dough.

    Durum wheat represents 5 percent of our nation`s total wheat supply, which makes it a specialty crop. Since North Dakota is one of few regions where durum thrives, it has become very important to the livelihood of the economy.

    Warren Froelich/ NDSU Extension Agent: “It has few market players, let’s put it that way, so it`s very sensitive to the decision of these market players."

    Right now, the local durum supply is reacting to those market factors. For example, France is usually one of the key players. But since the region has had too much rain this year, the quality is reduced.

    The second factor is Canada.

    Froelich: “We don`t know what`s happening with the durum. Right now, they`re out of the market. Some speculate they don`t have any product to sell. Some think that they`re waiting for a higher price. Most of us tend to believe, I think, that they don`t have any product."

    Since Canada is the world`s leader in durum supply, North Dakota producers see a good potential for a successful durum year. It`s a welcome change after a nearly 40 percent reduction in acres last year.

    Froelich: “The USDA is suggesting or thinking that maybe we have a much higher yield potential than what we`ve had in the past. Last year, I think we averaged 33 bushels. This year they`re projecting it at about 38 bushels."

    Now is a crucial time because if everything falls into place, just right, the state could see as much as a 50 percent increase in production this year.

    Of course, the weather will play a big part.

    Froelich: “We need right now, a good rain shower, a gentle rain shower without a hail storm and within a matter of days."

    If the rain comes too late, the quality of product will suffer, which is why producers remain cautiously optimistic.

    #2
    Emptied the last bin of Durum last week heading on a train to ADM in Minneapolis this was 03 production and 06. I dont think the CWB is holding back sales to get higher prices, They have presold in probably March 50% of the crop at a loss.

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      #3
      Durum price are set for take off:

      N. America production is down, Europe's is down, Morocco and Algeria are buying, little old crop stocks remain, and with so few sellers participating in this market, sellers will command higher prices, rationing demand.

      Watch for big durum acres next spring.

      Comment


        #4
        BennyHin

        You are here and seem to know a great deal about CWB operations. Will note the durum fixed price contract has stood still while the market has rallied. This is because the CWB only really changes their PPO assumptions on PRO days. Any thoughts as to why the CWB doesn't do more frequent changes in rapidly changing markets? Also, why wouldn't the durum fixed price contract be adjusted more frequently to reflect changing market conditions? If you believe higher 2008 acreage and a substantial new crop price inverse, would this support multiple pooling years? Get the crop sold at high prices/not carry inventory into low prices.

        Today's PRO has me thinking about all these questions.

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