Statistics Canada Seeding Intentions Acreage Estimate

[charliep]

Just a note to highlight that Statistics Canada will be releasing their 2001 Canadian seeding intentions report on Tuesday (April 24). This will include traditional grains and oilseeds as well as pulse crops. The key number to watch will be canola. Pulse crop intentions will also be important.

A normal community would have an acreage guesstimate pool where everyone throws in 5 bucks and the winner takes all. Can't do that here but we can put the challenge out as to who the most accurate forecaster is.

What will the Western Canadian acreage be of each of the fooling crops?

2000 2001
All wheat 26,707
Wht ex durum20,177
Durum 6,530
Oats 4,150
Barley 11,835
Rye 284
Flax 1,470
Canola 12,040
Beans 280
Peas 3,065
Lentils 1,727
Mustard 525
Canary 410
Fallow 11,585
TOTAL 74,078

[danm]

What will the Western Canadian acreage be of each of the fooling crops? Here's my guess 2001
assuming total is correct
2000 2001
All wheat 26,707 30000
Wht ex durum 20,177 26500
Durum 6,530 3500
Oats 4,150 5000
Barley 11,835 8000
Rye 284 300
Flax 1,470 1700
Canola 12,040 9000
Beans 280 250
Peas 3,065 3100
Lentils 1,727 1300
Mustard 525 200
Canary 410 450
Fallow 11,585 15000
TOTAL 74,078 74300
Let me know how I do

Dan

[TOM4CWB]

danm,

I like your sense of humor!!!!!

I second your motion, how many people can we fool?

The more we can fool people the better off we will all be!!!!!!!

Everyone wants to know how much there is so they can get it at the cheapest possible price!!!!!!!!!!!

[charliep]

Danm - You have your accreditation as a market guru given your forecasts are better than mine. I look for participants comments on the survey/implications/shifts over next month. My comments are below

PRAIRIE ACREAGE FORECAST
<pre>
Charlie Statscan
2000 2001 2001 Change
All wheat 26,707 27,700 26,494 99%
Wht ex durum 20,177 21,200 21,184 105%
Durum 6,530 6,500 5,310 81%
Oats 4,150 4,200 4,520 109%
Barley 11,835 12,000 12,025 102%
Rye 284 280 224 79%
Flax 1,470 1,500 1,400 95%
Canola 12,040 10,600 9,230 77%
Peas 3,065 3,200 3,570 116%
Lentils 1,727 1,800 1,600 93%
Mustard 525 500 312 59%
Canary 410 400 185 45%
Fallow 11,585 11,600 13,295 115%
TOTA 73,798 73,780 72,855 99%
</pre>

Quick thoughts are as follows.

1. The first highlight is the number of acres that will not be seeded this year or shifted to something else. Western Canadian summerfallow acres are up by 1.7 mln acres. There is also a mln prairie acres that have disappeared into something else (pasture, chickpeas - not on survey this time, etc.). This is a major shift in both cases and may be redistributed between crops later.
2. Canola number is way down below trade expectations. Given world vegoil situation, this is not overally bullish price wise but does highlight a year where some type of rationing will have to happen relative to traditional customer buying patterns. Canola actual acres likely to be higher (10 mln acres /-) but below what the trade was hoping for.
3. Pea acres are higher than expected. Highlights the need to continue to work with Alta. Pulse Growers, Pulse Canada, domestic feed mills to build markets.
4. Mustard acres down. A good indication why new crop bids have been at some decent levels for both yellow and brown/oriental.
5. Canary seed acres also way down. Doesn't turn me into a bull (too much canary seed inventory) but may create opportunities for a bit better price.