US Gets BIG share of Wheat Exports in 08-09

[TOM4CWB]

Dear Charlie,

One must wonder in disbelief at CWB excuses for bad performance this fall.

Here is the latest US Wheat Associates report on wheat sales from the 2008 harvest:

"USDA reported net export sales of old crop wheat at 511 TMT, which was above market expectations of 400-500 TMT, and was 40 percent above the previous 4-week average. The largest increases in net export sales were to Japan (103 TMT), South Korea (89 TMT), and Egypt (57 TMT). Cumulative year-to-date sales stand at 20 MMT or 73 percent of the USDA projected total of 27.2 MMT."

http://www.uswheat.org/priceReports/doc/0A39FAA89EE8A64185257508007929A8?OpenDocument#

If I hear one more comment about the US wheat 'premium' being because of the domestic US market...

The US has gained huge export wheat market share in 2007-08... and is simply maintaining the business this crop year. PREMIUM prices... because of market loyalty and transparency.

President White's wimpers (about the CD HOWE Institute report)ring hollow.

How stupid does he think we are?!!!

[TOM4CWB]

More bad news Charlie,

"Wet weather in Queensland and New South Whales is expected to delay Australia’s 2008/09 wheat harvest by more than two weeks. Rains are expected to continue next week and possibly longer increasing the risk of reduced quality and yields. Meanwhile, persistent dryness in Argentina’s wheat growing region resulted in the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) lowering its production estimate 500 TMT to 10.0 MMT. BAGE noted that frost last weekend likely damaged maturing plants in Buenos Aires, which accounts for half of total production.'

Weber could be right Charlie... don't you agree?

Charlie like feed grains/Canola as the 'sleepers' I chose Mr. Weber's pick of wheat... as stated on BNN this week! Since the CWB is here to 'hold up the market'... there is no doubt who is right! : ) GRIN!

Imagine if Canola was under the CWB right now!

$5/bu initial... Basis of $75 under in ALberta for the rest of the crop year... and a 70% acceptance level on the 'A' series contract!

[timm]

USDA forecasts global production at record 682 MMT
11% (71 MMT) over 2007/08, 16% (90 MMT) higher than10-year average
Largest producers up: EU (26%), China (4%), Black Sea (19%), India (3%)
Up in North America: U.S. 19% (12 MMT), Canada 35% (7 MMT)
Australia seen up 54% (7 MMT)
Argentina down 33% on lower plantings, dry conditions
Consumption forecast to set record: up 6% (38 MMT)
Wheat feeding forecast to increase 30% (29 MMT)
Plentiful supplies of sub-milling quality wheat
Food use also forecast to rise (9 MMT)
Trade expected to increase 8% (9 MMT) to new record
Import projections
India to fall to near 0 from combined 8 MMT over last 2 years
EU-27 purchases seen down 1.5 MMT on higher production
Iran forecast up 4 MMT, Syria up .8 MMT, Algeria .4 MMT
Export forecasts
Forecast up: Australia up 7 to 14 MMT, EU up 8 to 19 MMT, Ukraine up 7 to 9 MMT
US seen down 7 to 27 MMT, Kazakhstan down 4 to 5 MMT
wrong tom???

[timm]

World stocks expected to rebound
Beginning stocks lowest since 1978
Stocks projected to rebound 25 MMT this
Would remain the second lowest stocks to use ratio in history
Stocks in 6 major exporters (including Black Sea) expected to end year up 46% (18 MMT) over 2007/08
U.S. ending stocks projected to nearly double
U.S. farm gate prices forecast to continue rising
$6.55 to $7.15/bushel ($241-$263/MT)*
$6.48 ($238/MT) in 2007/08
*Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average

[TOM4CWB]

timm,

I am not quite sure what point you are trying get across Tim.

The US is by far the largest wheat exporter on the planet... all wheat is priced in US$ in the export market...

PNW Export basis... has averaged somewhere around $70/t ABOVE the MGE Futures... and the CWB basis was about $20/t BELOW MGE Futures.

Where did the $90/t go Tim. SImple... into the pool accounts.

So... how did the CWB 'extract' the POOL premium you maintain occured?

Tim... the premium came out of my bank account(literally)... and out the bank accounts of every other PPO CWB wheat slave in the 'designated area'.

NOW... how pleased do you think I am with CWB performance over the past 2 years?