How to time this?

[goldhaven]

Hey guys, I'm young (uner 30) and new to posting to this board. I've been reading here for over 2 years and now want to start asking questions that can help shape my future. Do you producers believe that the price of grains/oilseeds will go higher with the crash of the US Dollar? The endless pumping of cash into the economy can only end up ruining its currency and with a weak US$, does that drag our grain prices down with it, or just give us that headfake and then head back up to where we were in the past spring......or did i miss the boat??

[TOM4CWB]

goldhaven,

As with the A$... as the currency drops... the price increases on the grains themselves.

Did you watch as earlier this summer... as oil increased the US$ devalued?

IF the US $ decreases... the price of oil will increase... as the two are interrelated. This is because the US economy requires so much oil to function... as does the tiger economies of China/India/Malsia/Korea etc. and Japan. See the article an the Aussie $. The world prices commodities in US$. IF the value of the US$ drops... it automatically brings higher US$ values to these grains.

CAN this relationship change?

We can never say never... but there have been some time tested principals of the world economy... that a major shift would need to happen is economic structure globally for the shift to occur.

I believe this will be a political shift... which we will be able to watch for... and the signs so far have not indicated the end of the US$ being the currency of the world economy... yet.

The Chinese are still tied to the US$... although less rigdidly than in the past.

These are just observations of a dirt farmer... and I have been shocked at the depreciation of the CDN$... A$... even the EURO... as the recession takes hold. The US$ has been the 'gold standard' since the Second world war... so habit/tradition drives this as much as anything!

[cottonpicken]

The dollar is toast and there are plenty of signs saying so.

Every farmer is insulated from inflation because of his production and tangible assets.(question from previous thread)

The printing presses are getting rampted up and this will force liquidty into inflation based investments.

If im wrong and we are in a deflation mode then its a quick trip back to the stoneage.Its inflate or die situation.Even the less brillant econs are starting to understand this finally.

I wont even bother addressing the pushing a string theory on the credit arguement.

Farming is a great place to be.

As for timing,i believe things are happening faster and faster so we may not have to wait as long as one would normally think.The unpresedented swings in global currency markets is evidence of this.

But with the way things are making timing descions or predictions is pretty stupid.So call me stupid i would say by march 31 things are going to pretty obvious.

And as always- just my opinion due your own damn due dligence
JMODYODDD