What will you be watching this week/strategies

[skhadenuf]

The real laugh is any body that is out there left thinking we can actually have a canadian government representing the entire country. Let's face it, it's east versus west and both sides will stoop to do anything to be in power and transfer money and development their way while screwing the other side.
What the hell do we need the east for, what are we getting from them of any value?????? they buy our oil cheaper at the pumps than we do out here where we produce, they have subsidized farm programs we could only dream of having, We'd be a hundred times better off the minute we're gone because we'd never be impeded by those leaches like the ones getting into power now.

[SASKFARMER3]

Jack Layton yesterday made me want to go through the radio and throttle the arrogant wimp. This deal was in the works when he was jetting around during the election in Quebec.
Lets see the three stooges.
Lets have an election again this time run a real campaign, we now have the three stooges against the rest of us. We will win and win big, the big looser is the stupid liberals for going along with the other two duds.

[Choice2U]

I've started to learn the Canola options market using calls/puts. Pretty basic stuff for several of your readers but relatively new to me. Bought a Nov Put in early June, made $49/Mt but sold it way to early as the market dived way more than we all suspected. Delivered canola off the combine in September and replaced tonnage with a $25/Mt call because I wanted to partake in any market rebound. This was obviously a mistake. Mid November, bought a $15 January Put to protect my product left in the bin. Sold some canola for cash flow but now sitting on a nice little profit on that Put as of this morning. Almost 80% sold on canola and am up significantly on my paper transactions. From what I gather, these can work very well in a volatile market....not so sure how they will work if the market doesn't move much. Some food for thought for those like me with room to grow in our marketing prowess.

[rook]

Choice2u - thanks for the post. I'm looking at that but so far too chicken. Are your options trading well - is there enough liquidity? Who are you trading with? Was it tough getting started?

thanks

[bucket]

I am watching the fertilizer price.

Currently 550/tonne 46-0-0 at herbert/reedlake pioneer.

Hoping it gets to 500 as i would like some for tax deductions. 500 still is a good price as the majority of downside is gone and the upside potential is greater. By dropping from 900 to 500 thats 40000 not coming out of the operation for every 100 tonnes. If it drops another 100 its only 10000 per 100 tonnes. Too bad bankers don't understand this logic.

[TOM4CWB]

Choice2U,

If you are actually satisfied with the value your Puts have gained... Instead of excersing your put... Just go long instead.

This turns the Put you had into an artifical call! The long postion pays you if the market rises... and the put covers the long position IF the market falls.

[cottonpicken]

Over 80% of options expire worthless.

[cottonpicken]

Critical level in the oil market,were breaking below our old,old high-which i never ever thought would happen.

[Choice2U]

Hi Rook,

Your handle is my level of experience with calls/puts so keep this in mind. I trade with Union Securities (Keith), 204-982-0629. I set up an account, sent them a cheque for $2K to start. They only cashed it when I bought. Phone call is all it takes after that. Cottonpicken confirmed why I am not sure how good these things will work in a relatively flat market with his comment that 80% of options expire. Right now I've made $8,700 net on two puts (size - 100 Mt each time) and have a $2,500 call option which will probably expire worthless so I'll be up $6,200 unless I do something stupid which still has potential. Tom...I did in fact exercise the last $420 put option to offset a $365 futures bid so I didn't have to sell the put. Liquidity is a problem if you go out too far. I had a little under 10K bu of canola and this has been a way to sell product before the snow, have the possibility to make extra $ (up or down) on this delivered product. I am thinking of buying a $10 call option for July (if there is a taker) and wait this thing out. If the market is near it's bottom and moves up significanlty over the next 5 months, this thing should be worth something. If not, I know my last booboo only cost me $10/Mt. Obviously holding (storage risk) and/or selling the physical product has huge major risks in this volatile market as well. It sure helps to make some good coin the first trade so after that one is risking a profit rather than losing your intial investment plus.