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    Agrium Update

    Agrium Inc. (AGU)(US:AGU) announced today that it has shut-in production at its Fort Saskatchewan nitrogen facility and has further curtailed production at other major nitrogen and phosphate plants in North America. The temporary curtailments are necessary due to a significant build in North American fertilizer inventories and declining available storage capacity.

    Global nutrient and crop prices have weakened since early November when our second half guidance was issued and deferral of wholesale nutrient purchases has been significant. This has resulted in further sales volume reductions and production curtailments that will affect earnings contributions from our Wholesale business unit.

    Retail nutrient sales volumes have also been impacted by purchase deferrals by farmers in the fourth quarter, but have been offset by higher per tonne margins. An inventory valuation adjustment for Retail is not anticipated at current nutrient prices. Our seed and crop protection businesses have not been impacted by the current situation, as the fourth quarter is a seasonally slower period for seed and crop protection sales.

    "The late North American harvest, coupled with credit restrictions from international buyers and continued market uncertainties arising from reductions in global crop and nutrient prices, has impacted fall nutrient applications" said Mike Wilson, Agrium President and CEO.

    "We believe grain fundamentals are stronger than current prices would indicate and that global food demand is unlikely to be significantly affected by a slower global economic environment. Unprecedented reductions in fertilizer use this fall in both North America and globally has resulted in significant production curtailments and shutdowns and is expected to place extreme pressure on an already strained distribution system next spring. It is unclear whether distribution systems, particularly in North America, will be sufficient to meet spring demand; however, we anticipate that this will highlight the benefits of Agrium's extensive distribution network. Additionally, any reductions in crop inputs or seeded acreage will only put more upward pressure on crop prices and crop input demand in the future."

    For more information on this release go to TSX.com and look-up Agrium news release. I pasted what I thought was the important parts of the release.

    #2
    THis is probaly bullish news to fert prices. What do others think.

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      #3
      I'm thinking that anyone holding shares in Agrium is not going to very pleased to find out their investment is sitting because Agrium is still making profit, but not as much as they once were.

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        #4
        Retailers now Quioting $500 - 525 For Urea and Phos is baked off to $800 although looking at Gulf prices Phos should probably be closer to $700. With 30% of normal Fall app being done this year and guys holding off on purchases, it sure looks like some major logistical problems this spring. I Plan on putting targets in at $700 Phos and $475 Urea and see what happens... But what the hell do I know I bought 80 tonnes at $750 in June.. O well live and learn

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          #5
          Retailers now Quioting $500 - 525 For Urea and Phos is baked off to $800 although looking at Gulf prices Phos should probably be closer to $700. With 30% of normal Fall app being done this year and guys holding off on purchases, it sure looks like some major logistical problems this spring. I Plan on putting targets in at $700 Phos and $475 Urea and see what happens... But what the hell do I know I bought 80 tonnes at $750 in June.. O well live and learn

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            #6
            I'm worried that the system is going to get backed up so bad that it wouldn't matter if 46 was $250/mt, you won't be able to get it. But this situation just goes to show that the Agrium's of the world have their heads shoved so far up their a** that they are willing to give up profite for the sake of margin. If anyone is talking to an Agrium big-wig remind them that Profitt = Price x Volume...A zero anywhere on the right side of that equation results in one on the left.

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              #7
              Have any of you been to a fertilizer plant? Agrium is probably full to the rafters and can't logically put it anywhere.

              So they have what is called a maintenance shutdown to get some room.

              Do you believe everything the PR people from the cwb tell you? That's why they have media bullshitters and they expect people believe them. They don't know what's going on so they start a rumour or say some nonsense.

              If I was a shareholder I would be a little nervous about idling a plant when natgas is so low and idling means no cash flow in the future.

              Potash will drop their prices as soon as the chinese refuse an order and want to renegotiate the price.

              Farmers were told last year they might not be able to get fertilizer - did anyone get shorted? Demand has apparently dropped off so how will there be a supply issue?

              Just wondering.

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