Closing down All Production For 2009

[skhadenuf]

So am I, We sit back and complain and listen to all the so called experts who don't have a clue what's really going on. Time for us to control more of our own destiny and it is possible.

[fjlip]

Remember this?


"Focus on Sabbatical plan calls for farmers in Canada, the U.S., Brazil, Australia and Argentina to take one-third of their land, or about 150 million acres, out of production.
That would mean a production cut of about eight billion bu. of wheat, feed grains and oilseeds.
"I have absolutely no doubt that we can boost the price significantly with an eight billion bushel cut in production," Goudy told about 80 farmers who attended the April 10, 2003 conference in Saskatoon.
He added that Canadian farmers have much more to gain from the Focus plan than their American counterparts, who are already well-protected from low world prices by generous subsidy payments from their government.
Focus will also be talking with Canadian farm organizations such as the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan, provincial canola growers associations and the Canadian Wheat Board, with an eye to creating alliances to promote the plan.
The conference included a discussion period during which Ken Root, executive director of the U.S. National Association of Farm Broadcasters, led a discussion of Focus's plans and prospects with Goudy, University of Saskatchewan agricultural economist Ken Rosaasen and members of the audience.
Rosaasen said that while there is no question a production cut of the size being talked about would boost prices, there will be problems getting enough farmers to act together to accomplish it and preventing others from boosting production to take advantage of any price rise that does occur."


The key is farmers will not act together. Production is reduced by the free market by squeezing us till we are forced to quit growing which eventually leads to less supply and higher prices. That is how "the cure for low prices is low prices" works. The market does not care what your costs are. It exists for cycles. Speculators make as much money when it goes down. We work with it or quit. The power brokers will never change it for our benefit. Sorry.

[agstar77]

Farmers will not act together. However there will be production cuts simply because credit will be tight, bankers looking at operating margins will not be very anxious to lend.

[AdamSmith]

SF, I hear you and if taking a voluntary sabatical is what you have to do, then thats what you have to do, the same goes for all others, I myself havn't ruled out summerfallow but I'm not ready to make that decision just yet.

But please don't go down the road of thinking everyone is a bonehead because their not prepared to do the same.

Countryguy said, We DO have the power to starve the world in 1 single year.All it would take is to get everyone on side.Are we up to the task?

Now I understand this is just rhetoric but it is still alarming to hear to say the least.

Think about what you just said and then think how utterly delusional it is.

Society will tolerate alot of crap, but when you start threatening to take away their dinner, you better have a very large and powerful army to protect you from them.

But it's the spirit of the statement that alarms me. To even consider "Your desire for a greater profit" to be the moral equivilance and justification for mass starvation is just horrifying.

You may have sunk to those depths, but please don't assume others have.

I know I should know better than to get between a farmer and his victim mentality but there are no guarantees in farming and I'm surprised some of you haven't figured this out by now.

[SASKFARMER3]

Fjip your correct but since countries all over the world produce production forecasts that hurt our prices, Ex Australia starting in last march with a huge production number then all year lowering it. Here's a novel Idea when stats Canada phones for next springs production by Canadian farmers Drop your seeded acreage by 50% don't purchase fert till last minuet if you change your mind. Take 50% that you will need in seed and fert so your protected. now show numbers, Canola Canadian production 7 million tons, Wheat production 12 million tons etc etc etc. Now farmers do this all over the world HM don't you think prices would go up. OR will they call our bluff and face starvation. Lets remember the world only has so many days of food. By only buying half your needs in inputs the suppliers face ruin, 1/2 sales just doesn't work in todays world of business.

[Kodiak]

I'm not going to tell ANYONE, but if you guys are all REALLY going to shut your production down that's great!

What an opportunity! I'm going to raise my fertilizer application by 20%, buy the best seed, and seed fence to fence. With all that '09 production off the S&D calculations, I figure my production should be quite profitable.

But SSHHHHHHHHH!

[Kodiak]

Oh, I forgot. Please go and convince all your friends and neighbours to shut their production off too. Then it will work even better!

WOW! I see lower fertilizer prices and higher grain prices! But shhhhhhhh, don't tell anyone that part If this ever gets out it won't work for me.

And good luck!

[skhadenuf]

Guys better run to the fertilizer dealers right now because now that they know some are seeding fence to fence price will be up because of the massive short supply and logistic problems. Then when you get whacked out by drought frost flood or what ever the hell else, you can sit back and let your CAIS cheque come in the mail ahhHHHHHHH about 2 years later somewhere around the time your CWB cheque arrives in time to make you feel good for Christmas. Meanwhile some asshole on the radio will mention that some farmer on some quarter grew 50 bushels an acre of canola therefore even at the $6.00 a bushel mark he's rollin in doe. Meanwhile your 10 or 15 bushels although isn't costing you much in bin space or trucking covers your crop premium, fuel, some spray and some repairs. 2 years later though Cais wants their money back because they made an error, so really got nothing other than an accountant's bill.
Yeah I think you're right we should just keep doing things the way we are, always nice to read about the banks, fertilizer co., practically everyone else up the supply line of our product bosting their billions of profit, while many are freezing their ass off away from family working rigs etc just for the food and power bill.

[vvalk]

SF3 you had from February to July to price high priced canola. Alsoa about the same length of time or longer for wheat or specialty crops. There was lots of time to price this years crop and the next 2 years. I am surprised you run a farm like you do with how excitable you get. You only have yourself to blame if your farm is not HUGELY profitable this year since we know you had a crop. Whats the deal with the bitchen about fertilizer prices. Fert prices dropped in half. What have you saved? $30 or $40 an acre. What about the $16 canola that is now $8. Based on 40 bus or more thats $300 to $400 an acre lost. You would have been way better off to buy $1000 urea and sold your canola for $15. Think about it.

[Hopperbin]

There was no way that focus on Sabatical could have ever worked. But if enough farmers in western Canada did some somerfallow it would send a message to our fertilizer manufacturer not to gouge us. Perhaps 350 dollar 46 is possible yet. That is where I think our price should be at this time.

[SASKFARMER3]

Vwalk do you just not get it, I did all your talking about plus probably had lower cost of production than you. Its not my farm that I am concerned about, Ill survive just fine but what gets me is that most of you guys just don't get it. Fertilizer was way over priced, come on you think it should be where it was, their was no shortage etc. On seed increasing it every year and our yields stay the same or just a little better, again you believe this is good. Glyphos going back through the roof you like this I guess and on and on and on its all BS. This is the problem the industry knows for every one like me there is someone like you who just doesn't get it. You think Walmart goes to its suppliers and says OK your cost is going up Ill pay you for the product and pass it on. HA HA HA they cream their suppliers, We purchase from these thief's and then when the world needs food they say they cant pay for it. Come on get with the real world. IF we all didn't bitch that the price for fert was way to high compared to the world price do you honestly believe your pals at Agrium etc would have lowered the price for you. HA HA HA. Next thing is chemicals their over priced every single one, Their base ingredients are dropping yet price goes up. your friends at these places will help you too. Better phone Richie brothers their looking for a few good farms like yours next year.

[fjlip]

SF3 I have always answered surveys on the low side, but guess what I once heard? Stats Can is expecting farmers to low ball the numbers so they pad them up! No doubt USDA acts that way too. I feel we all lose price when too much supply is known. Uncertainty would translate into buy now for there might be none tomorrow. The infra red satellite images accurately give analysts crop potential baring frost or hail. It would be tough to keep production potential a secret. If we store grain they still know it's there, but need to pry bins open with $? Talk mail today, Viterra at $2 oats. Profitable but half last years net$/acre. Vvalk I have said same. The decrease in canola price is 8 times the increase at $1000 urea. Same for fuel. $1.20/ litre only added $7/ acre.

[skhadenuf]

Unfortunately hopperbin you're likely right about the sabattical thing not working.
As far as the pricing I know a lot of experts after the facts occur. In fact my neighbor, has a couple bins of high priced phos bought after seeding because of the great shortage coming next year, our local dealer conned him into. At the time I was admitidly almost envious he was in that position to buy so cheap compared to what price was coming, I was no expert just didn't have the cash, ironically thank God.
I also know some neighbors that locked in canary seed a few years ago for somewhere around 17cent mark, they lost their crop and nearly everyone else so had to fill their contract with 45 cent canary, they were done farming the next year, after 3 generations in that one move.
That's why we can't just sit here and not value our work if we don't nobody else is going to. If you're farm gets 40-50 bushel canola every year then life would be good, and I could see why you would not be concerned about changing things, and you would definately take advantage of the once in a lifetime price rise if you knew your guaranteed production was coming, but what would you understand about the real world for the rest of us that don't get 40-50 bushel canola every year. The people who are living the reality are the ones that need to try to find some solution. There is a reason the provincial average for canola is in the low 20's over the last 10-15 years.

[SASKFARMER3]

Boys I am just saying if they baffled us with BS the last few years for a small carrot and some of you believe in your own mind the system works more power to you but once just once think out of the box that's being created in farming and answer some simple questions did the prices that these guys were gouging us have any real value or like I have being saying all along their gouged us huge and well fitting their pigs at the trough. Yes you should see some of the satellite equipment that can tell what kind of combine is parked in your yard from space, but most of the people that buy our product aren't using this technology yet.

[SASKFARMER3]

good comments skhadenuf its like the guys who always grow these huge crops yet when its all over and done they really were just average farmers their whole life. Prov averages per distirict is a good indication of how things are. Combined for guys between Regina and Moosejaw a few years back who always told me about their expensive land and how much theiy grew , lets say it was a eye opener a real eye opener, I was very happy to farm where I do. Back to the original post, We as farmers either have to fight for our rights and quit taking what what the suppliers and buyers are dishing us.