Closing down All Production For 2009

[fjlip]

SF3 I have always answered surveys on the low side, but guess what I once heard? Stats Can is expecting farmers to low ball the numbers so they pad them up! No doubt USDA acts that way too. I feel we all lose price when too much supply is known. Uncertainty would translate into buy now for there might be none tomorrow. The infra red satellite images accurately give analysts crop potential baring frost or hail. It would be tough to keep production potential a secret. If we store grain they still know it's there, but need to pry bins open with $? Talk mail today, Viterra at $2 oats. Profitable but half last years net$/acre. Vvalk I have said same. The decrease in canola price is 8 times the increase at $1000 urea. Same for fuel. $1.20/ litre only added $7/ acre.

[vvalk]

SF3. talk about not getting it? You talk about fertilizer being crazy at $1000 a tonne. I priced some nexera at $18.60 a bus in March. thats not crazy. Woulld you buy $1000 fert right now if you still could sell regular canola for $17 or wheat for $12. $11 peas. Do I need to go on but hey I don't get it!

[parsley]

If you are able to muster the same enthusiasm for chasing dollars/bushel as you are for bushels/acre, in other words, chase dollars as opposed to yield, your postion will change dramatically.pars

[SASKFARMER3]

No I wouldn't because there was no shortage like they told us they got greedy and now were suppose to help them out, Ha Keep telling your self how smart you are that's good. Don't you like to make money Yes 18 for canola is good for my bank account for me and my family after years of no profit at all or break even or loose money, useless CASIP programs. But these guys got greedy and you believe its OK to pay them have a great day (Mr indepedent fert dealer).

[freewheat]

I'm glad vwalk, you were able to sell all your crop for 18.60 a bushel. Many of us were not stupid to not price much crop, but were chicken as hell to because we had pathetic luck for the previous, oh 5 years. I farm in one of the top yielding historic RM's, but from 04 to 07, we had crazy weather. i think most guys wish they'd have done more, but lately our region has gone from a sure crop zone with a 100 year excellent crop history, to a joke area. If I wasn't paying for the previous several years disasters, I'd be filthy stinking loaded right now, but I'm not. I could have grossed around 1000 bucks an acre based on the crop I produced this year, but I would have been finished had I priced and not produced, especially had the market stayed bouyant.

[vvalk]

Didn't sell much over $15, like everyone else, but that is the piont I am trying to make. SF3 says I don't get the big picture. The big picture is that everyone is bitchen about saving $30 on fert yet they ( and myself) lost $300 on marketing. Thats the big picture. And no I am not a fert dealer but would be a good idea to get 50% of your income from outside the farm. Gotta love the arrogance of SF3 that he gets it but no one else does?

[bgmb]

I think everyone should realize for some this is a place to vent... let out their frustrations!

I totally agree with what you say about how we lost 10 times what we will save in fert if we could have picked the top.

Where I think sask3 is bank on is that he hates spending a cent more than he has to cause he knows he will never get that cent back.

There is something to be said for keeping your costs low. You can dream all you want about high prices and yields and hire all the experts in the world to get you there. But chances are you'll still be saying couldashouldawoulda and when things go to hell you are happy you never overspent on $10 glyphos and $1000 fert

[SASKFARMER3]

Vwalk it is a place to vent and that's what I was doing, BgMB is right I hate to spend one cent more than I have to on any thing, Hell Ill ask the girl at walmart if that's the best she can do on price of stuff, Some times they go oh well we have a staff discount and its 10 to 15% cheaper. Simply if you never ask or push back most of things in life will walk right over you. Fertilizer is one example how companies screwed us farmers and it was all BS, their was no shortage pent up extra demand etc. it was plain BS. Also with the glyphos that was the same. Yes I agree as farmers we have lost huge dollars from our high on not pricing product earlier etc. (till the canola sales ended with no more that 30 days out, funny how that happened) Yes in our area most were scared crap less because a sure crop area up to 2000 went to hell with frost dry frost flood flood etc etc etc, and a federal protection program that was designed by who the heck knows. So yes I am cranky because the latest melt down was created by greed, and now its imploding at record rate. Yet what do I here every day oh people need to eat just seed one more crop and good prices will return in 2010. Or in layman's terms, You fools grow a crop we will keep charging you what ever we want so that people have food to eat, we make money and you just survive.

[furrowtickler]

I think all should put up or shut up!
We are chem/following 15% this year, on top of that there is a 95% chance the world grain and oilseed production will be far below last years levels. Lets help ourselves, not the input suppliers. Everyone can trim production without loosing the farm, just do it!

[Burbert]

I would follow SF3 advice, to the gates of hell. He's right, lets shut her down boys, screw 2009. Due nothing, earn nothing, grow nothing, let's starve them. Costco and Walmart, can't feedem all, or can they. Grow a big garden, lots of potatoes it you must farm. To hell with Angribusiness. Way to go SF3 you are the leader that framers in Kanada are seeking and we should be thankful for your insight and guts to due the right thing. Let's all get jobs in the oil patch, for the short time. Lets form a union, oops forgot, already got a union, but the NFU don't know nuttin........

[GreenValley]

Don't think production would shut down would work and chain economy would falling in. How about for starting 25% cutting back for fert than recommended for few years? Anyone taker. On other hand if we cut the other may increase, we knock our head. From here how do we start. Quota? Land Idle same as in US?
I have read my grandpa invoice of grain income in way back oldtimer. Wheat somewhat at 2 to 3 dollar per bus and barley is close around 2.00 per bushel. And combine MF $6250.00 pretty cheap. So that price today need to be bring adjust to inflation level. So I am not sure what percent inflation of today from oldtimer. So my guess wheat should be better off 10.00/bus and for barley would be better off 8.00-10.00/bus. Other wise fert is joke or we are joke?

[SASKFARMER3]

Here is one for the record books two guys in our area cut fert usage by 100% and 25% and guess what mother nature equals us all out in the end. If its to dry all same, to wet same, frost same, heat blast same etc etc etc. But the one in ten that its a perfect summer like the last one. (yes I was calling it a average I know) you win big.

[GreenValley]

SF3, you make point. Either drought or too wet would flush fert dollar down drain and those 100% without fert make grin.
I has 6 times hail damaged on canola at cotoyten stage crop but they survive come back surprised. Any one taker. Ask Stephen Harper for bailout money due fert too high.

[classicalliberal]

Yes, if you reduced the supply this year, that would increase the price. That is what OPEC does, that is what the fertilizer companies are trying to do. Actually they have to shut down because no one is buying their product and they are out of space to put it. I'm not sure if the price elasticity of supply is elastic enough so that reducing the supply by 10% will increase the price by 10%. Probably would because the speculators usually run things up and down more than they fundamentally would be.