Dear Charlie,
How do we explain this?
THe CWB undercuts the Hard Red Spring market... which causes the Pasta people to subsitute CWRS... for Durum... so the US growers in North Dakota of Durum... can fill our markets... while we sit on our durum?
Background:
Durum market not seeing much movement
By MARK CONLON, Editor
Friday, December 19, 2008 10:45 AM CST
There hasn't been a whole lot of movement in durum prices of late. As a result, there hasn't been much durum moving either.
“Durum prices haven't really budged a whole lot,” commented Erica Peterson, marketing specialist for the North Dakota Wheat Commission, adding that local cash price around the state are ranging from $6.75 to $7.75 with an average of about $7.25.[$8.70Cdn farm gate...Durum:a range of prices are available depending upon various quality attributes.Offers from Lakes ports range from $10.34 to $12.25/bu ($380 to $450/MT)]{US WHEAT DEC 19/08}
“We've been in this situation before where there's not much buying going on, or much selling either,” she said.
The durum cash price in Minneapolis as of Dec. 10 was at $9.75. That's still at a premium to hard red spring wheat which means some pasta manufacturers are utilizing HRSW in its blends rather than durum.
“(At $9.75), that's still at a large enough premium to hard red spring wheat to encourage continued substitution of hard red spring wheat flour for durum semolina,” Peterson said. “So demand might not pick up a whole lot until we see a further price decline.”
Peterson said buyers that are continuing to purchase durum really aren't doing it at a substantial rate. Instead they're just buying what they need for the present time.
“But the good news is we did see durum exports pick up slightly in the last few weeks,” Peterson noted. “We saw sales to Italy, Algeria, Tunisia, and a small amount to Venezuela.”
Exports had been practically non-existent for the past few weeks so Peterson said it was encouraging to see some sales again.
“We're still well off last year's pace, but we're in a much better situation than we were a couple weeks ago when we had no new sales for quite some time,” she said. “So we are starting to see demand pick up.”
To date the U.S. has sold about 13.7 million bushels of durum.
Although there really weren't any real major durum production problems around the world this year, Peterson said available supplies from some competitors are shortening up and that has helped the U.S. export efforts.
“For example, supplies from the European Union and Mexico are starting to dwindle in terms of export availability, so we are seeing higher demand for U.S. and Canadian durum,” Peterson said. “In terms of Canadian exports, they were well behind last year's pace, but now they've caught up some. They're presently at 37 million bushels sold vs 40 million bushels last year at this time.”
In its latest report, Stats Canada also increased its estimate for durum production in Canada, going from 186 million bushels in September 203 million bushels in November.
“The November numbers show almost a 50 percent increase from 2007 so, obviously, they have more available durum for exporting,” Peterson noted.
In terms of world durum production, the latest International Grains Council report did not make any changes to production numbers, however, the IGC did lower the import numbers for the EU and Morocco and raised them for Algeria and Tunisia, according to Peterson.
The December USDA report lowered ending stocks for durum from 24 million bushels to 21 million. This was due to a lowering of expected imports from Canada from 40 million bushels to 35 million. This news would be slightly bullish except for the fact that USDA clipped domestic use slightly as well.
“So there have been a few bearish issues for durum lately,” she said. “But, as with spring wheat, it will be interesting to see what happens in the next six months in terms of demand - if people will keep buying short term, or if they will start making larger purchases.”
http://www.farmandranchguide.com/articles/2008/12/19/ag_news/markets/mark14.txt
Does the CWB have any clue... about what they are doing?
So why do 'designated area' growers... pay the storage and take the depreciation on durum stocks... for another year yet again?
How do we explain this?
THe CWB undercuts the Hard Red Spring market... which causes the Pasta people to subsitute CWRS... for Durum... so the US growers in North Dakota of Durum... can fill our markets... while we sit on our durum?
Background:
Durum market not seeing much movement
By MARK CONLON, Editor
Friday, December 19, 2008 10:45 AM CST
There hasn't been a whole lot of movement in durum prices of late. As a result, there hasn't been much durum moving either.
“Durum prices haven't really budged a whole lot,” commented Erica Peterson, marketing specialist for the North Dakota Wheat Commission, adding that local cash price around the state are ranging from $6.75 to $7.75 with an average of about $7.25.[$8.70Cdn farm gate...Durum:a range of prices are available depending upon various quality attributes.Offers from Lakes ports range from $10.34 to $12.25/bu ($380 to $450/MT)]{US WHEAT DEC 19/08}
“We've been in this situation before where there's not much buying going on, or much selling either,” she said.
The durum cash price in Minneapolis as of Dec. 10 was at $9.75. That's still at a premium to hard red spring wheat which means some pasta manufacturers are utilizing HRSW in its blends rather than durum.
“(At $9.75), that's still at a large enough premium to hard red spring wheat to encourage continued substitution of hard red spring wheat flour for durum semolina,” Peterson said. “So demand might not pick up a whole lot until we see a further price decline.”
Peterson said buyers that are continuing to purchase durum really aren't doing it at a substantial rate. Instead they're just buying what they need for the present time.
“But the good news is we did see durum exports pick up slightly in the last few weeks,” Peterson noted. “We saw sales to Italy, Algeria, Tunisia, and a small amount to Venezuela.”
Exports had been practically non-existent for the past few weeks so Peterson said it was encouraging to see some sales again.
“We're still well off last year's pace, but we're in a much better situation than we were a couple weeks ago when we had no new sales for quite some time,” she said. “So we are starting to see demand pick up.”
To date the U.S. has sold about 13.7 million bushels of durum.
Although there really weren't any real major durum production problems around the world this year, Peterson said available supplies from some competitors are shortening up and that has helped the U.S. export efforts.
“For example, supplies from the European Union and Mexico are starting to dwindle in terms of export availability, so we are seeing higher demand for U.S. and Canadian durum,” Peterson said. “In terms of Canadian exports, they were well behind last year's pace, but now they've caught up some. They're presently at 37 million bushels sold vs 40 million bushels last year at this time.”
In its latest report, Stats Canada also increased its estimate for durum production in Canada, going from 186 million bushels in September 203 million bushels in November.
“The November numbers show almost a 50 percent increase from 2007 so, obviously, they have more available durum for exporting,” Peterson noted.
In terms of world durum production, the latest International Grains Council report did not make any changes to production numbers, however, the IGC did lower the import numbers for the EU and Morocco and raised them for Algeria and Tunisia, according to Peterson.
The December USDA report lowered ending stocks for durum from 24 million bushels to 21 million. This was due to a lowering of expected imports from Canada from 40 million bushels to 35 million. This news would be slightly bullish except for the fact that USDA clipped domestic use slightly as well.
“So there have been a few bearish issues for durum lately,” she said. “But, as with spring wheat, it will be interesting to see what happens in the next six months in terms of demand - if people will keep buying short term, or if they will start making larger purchases.”
http://www.farmandranchguide.com/articles/2008/12/19/ag_news/markets/mark14.txt
Does the CWB have any clue... about what they are doing?
So why do 'designated area' growers... pay the storage and take the depreciation on durum stocks... for another year yet again?
Comment